2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Packers at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love has popped up as one of the favorites to win MVP. Love has been great so far this year, but I find this strange because the Packers are as great as they are because of Micah Parsons. If anyone on the Packers should be MVP, it should be Parsons.

Parsons will have a great matchup in this game if the Browns won’t have right tackle Jack Conklin again. Conklin missed the Baltimore game, and it was costly for Joe Flacco, who saw lots of pressure on the edge. The Browns already have a sketchy left tackle situation with Jedrick Wills gone, so if Conklin is sidelined, Parsons and Rashan Gary will tee off on Joe Flacco, forcing more turnovers.

It’ll be difficult for the Browns to run the ball as well. The Packers lost an interior defensive lineman in the Parsons trade, yet they shut down the two Detroit running backs in the opener. If they could keep Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check, they’ll have no issues limiting Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Don’t take my Parsons MVP chatter as me saying that Love hasn’t been great this year. Love sliced through the Detroit and Washington defenses with ease despite missing some personnel. This matchup, however, will prove to be more difficult.

The Browns have a great defense. They’ve limited their two opponents to about 383 combined net yards, and it’s not like they’ve battled horrible offenses. They’ve taken on Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, so they are battle tested. They have been stout versus tight ends, which is very noteworthy because Tucker Kraft has been such a big part of Green Bay’s aerial attack and will continue to be so with Jayden Reed injured.

It’ll be difficult for the Packers to run the ball as well. The Browns just put the clamps on Derrick Henry, who failed to even reach 25 rushing yards against them in a game in which the Ravens were ahead for most of the afternoon. Josh Jacobs doesn’t stand much of a chance.

RECAP: If accured yardage happened to be any indication, the Browns would be 2-0 right now. They’ve outgained their opposition by about 300 total yards, yet they’re 0-2. Turnovers have been a huge issue.

I don’t see why the giveaway rate would change. The Packers have an elite, ballhawking defense that will force Flacco and the mistake-prone receivers into turnovers. Cleveland’s great defense will do what it can, but the Packers will ultimately score enough points to potentially get the cover.

I can’t say I have much of an interest in betting this game. Eight points is a lot to lay against an elite defense, especially with a team that could be looking ahead to battling Dallas next week. However, I don’t want to back the Browns against one of the top teams in the league. I’ll pick the Packers for office pool purposes, but I won’t be wagering on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not much new here. A bit of sharp money has shown up on the Browns, dragging them down to 7.5. The metrics say Cleveland is undervalued, but those valuing those metrics should just consider the Browns to be a turnover machine.

PLAYER PROPS: Josh Jacobs’ number is way too high at 78.5. Derrick Henry didn’t even reach 30 rushing yards against Cleveland’s run defense. Combined, Henry and Chase Brown logged 66 rushing yards versus Cleveland, so how is Jacobs supposed to get to 79? The best number is under 78.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you’re considering backing the Browns, please consider the status of their offensive line, which has to go up against Micah Parsons and Rashan Gary. Jack Conklin, who missed Week 2, is questionable to play after being limited all week. Now, Joel Bitonio, the team’s top-rated blocker, is questionable after failing to practice all week with a back injury. I would still side with the Packers, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers had good news on the injury report with Tucker Kraft and Zach Tom playing today. The Browns, meanwhile, won’t have Jack Conklin again, though Joel Bitonio is playing. This favors the Packers, obviously, but the sharps are betting the Browns. The best line is Green Bay -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Packers could be a bit flat in this game. They’re coming off two big wins and have to battle Dallas next week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -5.5.

Computer Model: Packers -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 51% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 59-41 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 76 degrees. Light wind.