2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Broncos at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The thought dawned on me to bet Justin Herbert to win MVP. He’s been exceptional through two weeks, and if the Chargers have one of the best records in the NFL, he could claim the reward. Unfortunately, many others appear to have the same thought process because he’s +850 to win the award on FanDuel.

Herbert will have his greatest challenge yet, given how stellar Denver’s defense is. Herbert solved the Broncos last year, however. In two games, Herbert went 23-of-31 for 284 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, and 21-of-34 for 237 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers scored 34 and 23 points in those games, respectively. And Herbert didn’t have Keenan Allen or an improved Quentin Johnston at his disposal either.

Omarion Hampton wasn’t around either, but the rookie had a very disappointing Week 2. He and Najee Harris had the same number of carries, perhaps because of Hampton’s lost fumble in the fourth quarter. I don’t trust the Chargers to run very well on Denver, so Herbert will have to do everything.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos won’t have much success on the ground either. The Chargers have locked down the opposing ground attack through two weeks, limiting Ashton Jeanty on Monday night and the Chiefs running back previously. J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey don’t figure to have much more luck.

With the Broncos unable to run, Bo Nix will have to do more than Sean Payton would like. Many gave Nix a positive outlook heading into the year, but he has been a disappointment. Nix is at least protected well, so the Chargers won’t be able to rattle him like they did to Geno Smith on Monday night, especially if Khalil Mack is sidelined.

The Chargers are getting great play out of their defensive backs, but Nix has more talent at receiver than he did in the two matchups last year. Troy Franklin has emerged as a viable No. 2 option, so the Chargers won’t be able to fully concentrate on Courtland Sutton.

RECAP: The Chargers have looked like the much better team through two weeks. They handled the Chiefs well and then bullied the Raiders. The Broncos, meanwhile, lost to the Colts and had a close call against the Titans. However, Payton’s teams are notoriously slow starters, and it’s Week 3 when they usually catch fire.

We could see the Broncos play their best game yet this year, which is troublesome if you want to back a team that is coming off a short work week. That said, I still like the Chargers here because I have them rated higher than the Broncos, but I don’t think this is a very good betting opportunity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack will be out, but he hasn’t gone down for the year, or anything. I still like the Chargers here despite his absence. Jim Harbaugh values divisional matchups highly, so he’ll bring it in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers have some significant injuries. Everyone knows about Rashawn Slater and Khalil Mack, but if Daiyan Henley can’t play – he was DNP, limited, DNP with an illness – the Chargers will have some serious issues at linebacker. Henley is a talented player, so he’ll sorely be missed regardless. We’ll be watching for his status on Sunday afternoon.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Chargers have some injury issues we’ll be looking for when the inactives are released. Check back around 3:15 p.m. Eastern for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers had mixed news for their injuries. Daiyan Henley is active, while Cam Hart is out. Henley’s presence is huge because the Chargers would’ve had cluster injuries at linebacker without him. As it stands, I’m neutral on this game. The sharps, however, have taken the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The best line is -2.5 -120 at DraftKings and Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Lots of money on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (119,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chargers have won the last 2 meetings.

Sean Payton is 23-11 ATS in back-to-back road games.

Sean Payton is 26-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Jim Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Chargers -2.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.