2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Saints at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Many were down on Sam Darnold following Week 1, and rightfully so. Darnold stunk against the 49ers. However, he rebounded nicely against the Steelers, giving Seattle supporters some hope.

Darnold should continue to play well against New Orleans. The Saints have an awful pass rush – only 23 pressures through two games – so they won’t be able to take advantage of the liabilities the Seahawks have on their blocking unit. Darnold will capitalize with continued throws to Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Of course, the Seahawks will want to run the ball as much as possible. It’ll be tougher for them to do that because the Saints, while awful against the pass, can hold up well versus the run.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints will need to get something out of Alvin Kamara to give Spencer Rattler a chance. Kamara has looked good through two weeks, though he’ll inevitably decline as the season progresses due to age and durability issues.

Kamara, however, won’t get much on the ground. Christian McCaffrey couldn’t even tally 70 rushing yards on this stout Seattle front, so Kamara won’t produce very much in this game.

Rattler will be forced into long-yardage situations as a result. The Seahawks will be able to tee off on Rattler with their talented pass rushers. Rattler, making his first road start of the year, will likely commit some turnovers.

RECAP: I’ve heard the opinion that the Saints aren’t as bad as anticipated because they’ve hung around in their first two games, losing by seven to the Cardinals and five to the 49ers. This sentiment is flawed, however, because both of its opponents held double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. The Saints got to within single digits both times in garbage time when their opponents, both playing on the road, have fallen asleep.

This is not sustainable. The Saints could have easily been blown out in both games, and there’s a good chance that happens in this contest. The Saints will be playing on the road for the first time this year, and Seattle has a suffocating defense. Rattler is an awful quarterback, so he’s in a tougher spot than most quarterbacks in this situation. Good quarterbacks would be able to find a way to beat the Seahawks, but Rattler doesn’t have much of a chance.

I’m going to be betting the Seahawks. A line of -7.5 may seem too high, but I don’t think it’s high enough. This line should be -9.5 at the very least, and perhaps even -10.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here are my early Thursday Thoughts on this game because I forgot one thing: The Seahawks play on Thursday in Week 4 versus the Cardinals. Following a win across the country, it’s going to be difficult for Seattle to get up for this game.

PLAYER PROPS: The Seahawks can’t defend tight ends. I mentioned this last week, but we couldn’t bet on the Steeler tight ends because there are a billion of them. There’s only one Saints tight end, and that would be Juwan Johnson, who has logged 76 and 49 receiving yards in his two games. He should be able to clear 37.5. The best number is over 37.5 receiving yards -118 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: A case can be made to bet the Saints. The Seahawks are going to be missing three members of their secondary, including two of their top three safeties, and their best cornerback. I can’t actually wager money on Spencer Rattler, but if you do, I wouldn’t blame you.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Jaxson Smith-Njigba had an illness scare, but will be playing today despite flu-like symptoms. Be careful if you’re on them in survivor.

FINAL THOUGHTS: New Orleans won’t have Taliese Fuaga today, but that doesn’t matter for the pros. The sharps bet the Saints at +7.5, but not at +7. The best line is -7 -113 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

From the Thursday Thoughts: The Seahawks play on Thursday in Week 4 versus the Cardinals. Following a win across the country, it’s going to be difficult for Seattle to get up for this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -9.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Decent lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 31-20 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 60-48 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 8-17 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 64 degrees. Light wind.