2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Cardinals at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the first part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I met my Subway soulmate.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: So far, so good for Mac Jones. The former first-round pick was the butt of most jokes heading into Week 2, but he composed himself well, albeit against the Saints. He made quality throws and didn’t really commit any major blunders, leading the 49ers to a win.

We’ll see if Jones can do it again, but what we do know is that he is surrounded by some talented players who have positive matchups. This includes Christian McCaffrey, who will be going up against an Arizona defense that struggled versus Alvin Kamara in Week 1.

The Cardinals don’t have the best secondary either, so Jones will be able to connect with his receivers. George Kittle is out, but Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have both flashed at times this year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Though the Cardinals scored 27 points before garbage time last week, Kyler Murray didn’t have a good game. He threw a horrible interception, failed to connect with Marvin Harrison Jr. often, and missed some passes. All of this happened against a horrible Carolina defense.

Murray will be taking a step up in class, as he’ll be forced to go up against a defense not ranked in the bottom five for the first time all year. San Francisco’s pass rush should prove to be too devastating for Murray, who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards in the one real meeting between the teams last year.

The 49ers should be able to do a number on the Arizona rushing attack. James Conner has yet to eclipse 40 rushing yards in a single game this year, while Trey Benson isn’t a very good runner despite his explosive ability. He tries to break it outside too often, which won’t fly against this defense.

RECAP: As mentioned in the Vikings-Bengals pick capsule, one of my favorite betting angles is to wager on good teams with backup quarterbacks as long as they’re not battling elite defenses. We did this last week with the 49ers against the Saints. San Francisco was up 26-14 in the fourth quarter, easily covering the three-point spread.

The 49ers were obviously underpriced against the Saints, and that’s once again the case this week. It’s ridiculous that the 49ers, who are better than the Cardinals, even with Jones under center, are just -1.5. I made this line -4.5, so we’re getting three points of value, all while crossing the key number of three.

In addition to the great line value, there’s an interesting dynamic with Arizona. I’ve mentioned repeatedly over the past couple of weeks that the Cardinals sit on bad teams. At the same time, however, Arizona has a severe issue beating good opponents. Last year, the Cardinals were 2-8 against Group A and Group B teams, beating only the injury-ravaged 49ers and the Dolphins, who were welcoming back Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion. The 49ers, who didn’t have McCaffrey in that matchup, should be able to defeat Arizona.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brock Purdy will have a chance to play in this game, but that’s not something I wanted to see. Purdy could be less than 100 percent, which would make it more difficult for the 49ers to cover. I never thought I’d say this, but I’d have Mac Jones.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like Mac Jones will start despite Brock Purdy being questionable. Jones has a very easy matchup because the Cardinals have some serious cluster injuries at cornerback. Will Johnson, the star rookie corner, is out. Garrett Williams was placed on injured reserve. Sean Murphy-Bunting was already out. Max Melton, currently the starting slot corner, is questionable with all limited practices. If Melton sits, the Cardinals will have three healthy cornerbacks, so safety Jalen Thompson will probably have to move to corner.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are on the Cardinals, but I still love the 49ers.

TOUCHDOWN PROP: DraftKings is offering a no-sweat anytime touchdown bet, up to $50. We’ll go with Ricky Pearsall because of the injuries and matchup. The odds are +190 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jauan Jennings is out, but the Cardinals are missing multiple cornerbacks and also multiple offensive linemen because Paris Johnson is sidelined. Despite this, the sharps are on Arizona. The best line is -1.5 -105 at Bookmaker. BetMGM has a 20-percent boost, up to $25.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 62% (102,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Kyler Murray is 20-9 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 77 degrees. Light wind.