2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Dolphins at Bills

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

Week 2 Analysis: We should have had a great Week 2. Unfortunately, we lost three games worth 10 units – plus the vig – because of last-minute drives.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Redskins, 3 units (loss): We had two bad picks in Week 2, and this was one of them. I don’t understand why the Redskins were so bad on Thursday night. Maybe the Packers are just that great.

Patriots, 4 units (win): It looked like the Patriots were going to blow a 12-0 lead because of a punt return touchdown, but they scored on a kickoff right after that.

Jaguars, 5 units (loss): This one really hurt. The Jaguars led the whole game, but failed to cover +3.5 because Liam Coen went for it on fourth-and-medium rather than making it a six-point game, and then Jake Browning drove down the field in the final minute with the help of a bogus pass interference call. In addition to losing the five units, this defeat prevented Tom and I from being 8-2 in the Circa Millions through two weeks.

Cowboys, 3 units (loss): The other bad pick. Nay, a horrible pick. I don’t know what I was thinking with this one.

Rams, 3 units (win): The Rams trailed at halftime, but were dominant after intermission.

49ers, 5 units (win): I still can’t believe this spread was only -3.

Panthers, 3 units (loss): The second of three games in which we were burned in the final minute. The Panthers converted a fourth-and-16 to some guy named Brycen Tremaine to beat us. Disgusting.

Texans, 2 units (loss): This wasn’t three units, but I’m posting it because it was the third time in 24 hours that we were beaten on the final drive. A few hours later, we lost on Dont’e Thornton over 25.5 receiving yards even though he had a 20-yard catch on the opening drive, so that’s three units in total.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Dolphins had a players-only meeting ahead of Week 2, but that didn’t help their defense at all. They allowed the Patriots to move up and down the field on them. The good news is that they didn’t surrender a score on every possession, but New England still posted 26 points (seven came on a kickoff return).

If the Dolphins couldn’t stop the Colts or Patriots, what’s going to happen against the Bills? Miami’s secondary is a complete mess – especially with the great Storm Duck nursing an injury – so Josh Allen will be able to throw all over the Dolphins. Keon Coleman, who had a letdown Week 2 after a great first game, should be able to rebound.

The Dolphins haven’t been great against the run either. Jonathan Taylor and Rhamondre Stevenson both had solid performances against them, so imagine what James Cook will be able to do.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins at least had a better offensive performance than they did in Week 1, but it’s not like they had anywhere to go but up. They managed just one score in garbage time versus the Colts, but they tallied 20 points versus the Patriots (seven came on a punt return).

Despite the offensive “improvement,” Tua Tagovailoa still didn’t play well. He had numerous horrific misfires and struggled when his first read was taken away from him. You can bet that the Bills will planning to take Tagovailoa’s first read away as well, and they’ll be able to generate way more pressure than the Patriots did, thanks to the addition of Joey Bosa.

One injury to watch for is to Matt Milano. The Pro Bowl linebacker is questionable for this game. His absence would allow De’Von Achane to break some big gains, which Achane might be able to do anyway.

RECAP: I’m kicking myself for not betting the Bills on the advance line. They were listed at -8.5, but quickly moved to -9.5 and then -10.5. Now, they’re nearly favored by two touchdowns.

A line of 12.5 may seem like a lot, but I don’t think it’s high enough. I made this spread -16.5. The Bills are one of the top three teams in the NFL, while the Dolphins could easily be the worst. They’re 0-2 after getting blown out and losing by six at home, and yet they’ve yet to play an above-average team or better. Buffalo is a huge step up in competition compared to Indianapolis and New England.

If the situation weren’t bad enough for the Dolphins, they also have to deal with playing on just three days of rest. Thursday and international games benefit the better team because the inferior team won’t have ample preparation time to formulate a game plan to defeat the superior foe. I don’t need to tell you that the Bills are the better team in this matchup. They dominated the Dolphins in a Week 2 Thursday contest last year, and this will be a repeat of that outcome.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to drop my unit count to two because the Bills won’t have Matt Milano or Ed Oliver. I still like them, but it’s definitely not ideal that they’re missing two great defenders.

PROMOS: FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost on this game, up to $50. DraftKings has a 50-percent profit boost up to $100. BetMGM has a no-sweat bet up to $20.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: De’Von Achane had 67 and 56 receiving yards versus Buffalo in the two meetings last year. Tua Tagovailoa just won’t have enough time to throw, so he’ll have to dump off passes to Achane. The best number is over 39.5 receiving yards -112 at FanDuel.

BetRivers has a no-sweat first touchdown scorer promo, up to $10. We’re going with Keon Coleman +1100. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a no-sweat SGP token available for up to $25. We’re going with Achane over 39.5 receiving yards, Ray Davis over 23.5 rushing yards, Achane under 52.5 rushing yards, and Bills moneyline. This $25 parlay pays $129.71. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

For more on why I like these parlay legs, check out our WalterFootball.com Videos page.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the inactives list. I still like the Bills for a couple of units, though there’s some sharp money that came in on the Dolphins at +12.5 and +12. The best line is -11 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -16.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -15.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Equal action early. Late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.