2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Jets at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Video of the Week: Last year, I posted a Mario hack that had Shel Silverstein poetry in it. This one is a Mario, erm, Luigi escape room:

My only regret from watching this is that I know how to solve all the puzzles so I couldn’t figure it out myself.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We have to begin with the Jets offense because that’s where the news is concerning the quarterback situation. Justin Fields suffered a concussion against the Bills. Aaron Glenn said that it’ll be difficult for Fields to play if he can’t practice Wednesday or Thursday. Given how the NFL now treats concussions, it almost seems like a long shot for Fields to play this week.

Enter, Tyrod Taylor. The long-time backup has some wins under his belt. He’s not a very talented quarterback, but he’s a gritty player who is liked by his teammates. The Jets will try hard for him, and Taylor could have some success against a Tampa Bay defense that has big problems with the pass. We didn’t see that Monday night against the Texans because Tampa Bay was able to put a ton of pressure on C.J. Stroud. Taylor will be well protected by a very strong offensive line, so he’ll have a better chance of succeeding.

I wouldn’t expect much from Breece Hall as a runner, however. Perhaps Hall can have some big gains as a receiver, but the Buccaneers are stout versus the run, thanks to Vita Vea.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Jets have the opposite issue as the Buccaneers. While Tampa Bay is strong against the run and weak to the pass, New York can’t stop the run and plays well versus aerial attacks. We saw this last week when James Cook completely gashed the Jets.

Bucky Irving should be in store for a big game, especially if he gets both tackles back from injury. Tristan Wirfs was limited in practice last week, so he could be close to playing. Luke Goedeke left the Houston contest, so it’s unclear what his status is. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers have a strong interior that should still be able to open up running lanes for Irving.

Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, won’t have as big of a performance, despite his Monday night heroics. The Jets have strong cornerback play. Sauce Gardner will be able to limit Mike Evans, forcing Mayfield to look elsewhere. Mayfield will need more time than usual, so the status of Wirfs and Goedeke will be huge.

RECAP: It’s not yet clear if Fields will play in this game. There’s a chance he’ll clear concussion protocol, but given what we’ve seen from the NFL last year, it seems as though he’ll miss one game.

I love fading awful teams with backup quarterbacks, though I’m not sure if we can consider the Jets to be awful. They have a stout offensive line, two dynamic play-makers, and a defense with some quality defensive pieces. Plus, we’ve seen Taylor perform well in some spot starts. He nearly took down the Bills as a double-digit underdog on a Sunday night.

Besides, there’s a problem with the Buccaneers, which is that this is a tough scheduling spot. They’re coming off a last-second road win on Monday night. They’re going to have to travel following that victory and prepare for a new quarterback on a short work week.

Though the Buccaneers are the better team, this is a high number for them to cover. I’m going to side with the Jets, but I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Jets, dragging this line down to +6.5. The Buccaneers are in a tricky scheduling spot, and they also lost Calijah Kancey to injury.

PLAYER PROPS: The Buccaneers have gone seven consecutive games without surrendering 50 rushing yards to any player. This includes Bijan Robinson, who had just 24 rushing yards in Week 1. We faded Nick Chubb for this reason on Monday, and we’ll do so with Breece Hall. The best number is under 59.5 rushing yards -118 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers are the walking wounded. Emeka Egbuka could miss this game after barely practicing, and Calijah Kancey was placed on injured reserve, but the primary issue is with the offensive line. With Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch placed on injured reserve, and Tristan Wirfs ruled out, I don’t know how the Buccaneers are going to put a viable offensive line together, especially after one fewer day of rest. The Jets will have a big advantage in the trenches, so I’m going to place three units on the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Emeka Egbuka will play, but the other Buccaneer players will be sidelined. The Jets won’t have Tony Adams. The sharps are on the Jets. The best line is +6.5 -105 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Buccaneers are coming off a last-second win on a short work week.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight lean on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 144-100 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 45-75 ATS at home in the previous 120 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 90 degrees. Light wind.