2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Colts at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: A couple of weeks ago, one of our After Dark Show co-hosts, Evan Daniel, called that Cam Ward would take the most sacks in the NFL this year. Well, after two games, Ward has taken 11 sacks. He’s on pace to be sacked 93 times, which would break the all-time NFL record by a mile. David Carr currently has the record at 76.

Ward has had the misfortune of battling the Broncos and Rams thus far, but it doesn’t get much easier against the Colts. Indianapolis flooded the backfield against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so they could do the same againt Ward. The Colts have also done a good job of taking away the opposing No. 1 read, so Ward won’t be able to go to Calvin Ridley very often.

The Colts are stout against the run as well. Tony Pollard ran well against the Rams’ ground-challenged defense last week, but he won’t have as much success versus a front comprised of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Titans limited the Broncos to 20 points in Week 1, leading many to believe that they have a great defense. We discovered that this was nonsense last week, with the Rams scoring 33 against them.

The Colts, who have not punted yet this year, should be able to pick up where the Rams left off in Week 2. The Titans have some poor linebacker play, so Indianapolis should be able to figure out how to beat that with Tyler Warren, who has quickly become the focal point of the offense. This should be a big game for Warren, who is a tremendous talent. Michael Pittman Jr. will also bounce back now that he won’t have to deal with Patrick Surtain II.

Jonathan Taylor will join in the fun with a big performance as well. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum did a number on the Tennessee defense last week, while R.J. Harvey blasted off for a 50-yard run in Week 1. Taylor will dominate.

RECAP: We faded the Titans last week and will be doing the same thing this week. Tennessee is not a team that can contend with average or better teams yet with Cam Ward being incredibly inconsistent and the offensive line struggling to block. Yes, the Week 1 game against Denver was close, but the Broncos self-destructed with dumb mistakes. It’s easy to say that after a blowout victory over Miami and a win over the Broncos, the Colts are average at the very least, meaning that the Titans can’t contend with them under normal circumstances.

All things being even, the Colts should be able to win this game fairly easily. We’re even getting solid line value with them; I made this spread Indianapolis -5.5, so -3 or even -3.5 is a bargain. My only concern is that the Colts are in a poor scheduling spot. They’re coming off a thrilling, last-second victory in the Battle of the Horses and have to take on the Rams next week. This is a divisional game, but the Colts could still take Tennessee lightly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts still look good to me. Sharp money has moved the line in favor of Indianapolis, but it’s not like we lost any key numbers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tennessee’s offensive line could be in big trouble. J.C. Latham is out again, while Kevin Zeitler is questionable after just a limited practice Thursday and a DNP on Friday. The Colts, meanwhile, will be getting Laiatu Latu back from his Week 2 absence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprises on the inactive lists. The sharps have been betting the Colts since Saturday evening. The best line is Colts -5.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Colts are coming off a thrilling win in the Battle of the Horses. They play the superior Rams next week.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.5.

Computer Model: Colts -4.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tennesee: 55% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Chance of thunderstorms, 86 degrees. Light wind.