2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Rams at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Once upon a time, the Saints could have matched up well against the Rams – and not when Los Angeles was missing its two receivers. New Orleans had Marshon Lattimore in what was a solid group of cornerbacks, but with Lattimore traded and other corners injured, it’s going to be very difficult for the Saints to stop Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, especially the latter.

The Saints have to generate pressure on Matthew Stafford to disrupt these connections. However, the Saints have the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and the Rams’ offensive line is now healthy, aside from Rob Havenstein, who might have a chance to return to action.

Speaking of the offensive line, it should blast open some big holes for Kyren Williams. The Saints are on the outer edge of the bottom 10 of run defenses, so Williams also projects well for Los Angeles.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Unlike the Saints, the Rams generate plenty of pressure on the quarterback. While New Orleans is bottom 10 in pressure rate, the Rams are sixth. The Saints don’t have the best or healthiest offensive line in front of Derek Carr, so Carr figures to feel lots of pressure in this game.

With Carr dealing with tons of pressure in the pocket, he won’t have the luxury of delivering deep throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling once again in this game. Valdes-Scantling has been shockingly lethal in his previous two games, but he seems to be a regression candidate.

Perhaps Carr will aim to hand the ball off to his running backs and tight ends instead. Both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill may project well solely based on what Saquon Barkley did on Sunday night. But despite Barkley’s great performance, the Rams still rank near the top 10 in rush defense. They just simply ran into a juggernaut.

RECAP: There’s suddenly some hype with the Saints. They’ve won two in a row, but the caliber of opponent must be considered. They beat the Falcons, but that was an Atlanta team that got blown out at Denver the following week. The Falcons even outgained New Orleans by 100 yards, so that victory wasn’t that impressive. The other win was over the Browns. The score was 35-14, but it was 14-14 in the fourth quarter before some late touchdowns where the Browns gave up because they didn’t feel like tackling Hill.

The Saints are moving up in class for the first time under their interim head coach. The Rams were just blown out on national TV, but that was against the powerhouse Eagles team. I love backing good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and the Rams, who rank around 10th in adjusted EPA, certainly qualify as a good team.

Another reason to back the Rams is that the Saints are coming off a win and a bye. Teams in this situation don’t cover at a .500 rate. That includes this season, with teams owning a 1-5 against the spread in this dynamic.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rob Havenstein had a full practice on Wednesday, so it would be a huge upset if he were out again. The Saints, conversely, had two offensive linemen – Erik McCoy, Lucas Patrick – miss Wednesday’s practice, which is not a good sign coming off a bye.

PLAYER PROPS: The Saints are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to defending slot receivers. Cooper Kupp looks great in this matchup. The best number is over 65.5 receiving yards -115 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Rob Havenstein has no injury designation, though Alaric Jackson missed every practice. Another player like that is Erik McCoy, the Saints’ best offensive player. He could be out/hindered with his groin, and the Saints will also be missing Lucas Patrick. The Rams remain a top play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Rams. Let’s hope for Erik McCoy to be inactive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Erik McCoy is out, which is huge because the Saints will have cluster injuries in the interior of the offensive line versus a great pass rush. Despite this, there was sharp money on the Saints for some reason, but only at +3. The best line is -2.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams are coming off a blowout loss, while the Saints had a blowout win heading into their bye.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Lots of late money on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 77% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.