2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Steelers at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It feels weird to say that Joe Burrow will try to pick up where Jameis Winston left off, but that’s exactly what the circumstances are. Jameis Winston shredded Pittsburgh’s offense in the second half last week despite playing in a blizzard, so Burrow will attempt to duplicate that feat in better conditions.

Burrow is obviously better than Winston, and now with Tee Higgins back, he has a better supporting cast. The Steelers have allowed some big games to outside receivers, so that doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. It’d be one thing if the Steelers only had to worry about Chase, but Higgins’ presence makes it impossible for the opposition to constantly double team Chase. The Chargers did this, and we saw what happened.

The Steelers are stronger against the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect Chase Brown to get much on the ground. Brown has proven to be an excellent receiver out of the backfield, but Pittsburgh has defended that area of attack rather well.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Russell Wilson didn’t have quite as much success as Winston in Thursday’s blizzard. The moon balls weren’t all there, save for a couple of exceptions. The result was the team’s third loss of the year.

Wilson should be back to normal this week, provided we don’t get another poor weather game. The Bengals have major problems in the secondary, particularly when it comes to defending the deep ball. Justin Herbert torched them mercilessly last Sunday night, and Wilson could have similar success on deep shots to George Pickens and others.

Unlike the Bengals, the Steelers figure to run the ball well. Cincinnati has given up some big games on the ground this year; not just to running backs, but quarterbacks as well. Pittsburgh may realize this and give Justin Fields some opportunities to scramble.

RECAP: The Steelers were a fade last week, as they were in a horrible situation as a road favorite following a victory. Mike Tomlin has historically done very poorly in these spots (15-31 ATS).

This is a much better spot for Pittsburgh. Tomlin thrives as an underdog, particularly in divisional games. I hate going against Burrow coming off a loss because great quarterbacks tend to do their best following a defeat. However, this Cincinnati team sucks. The Bengals don’t do anything well outside of the passing game. The blocking is poor, while the defense can’t stop anyone. Everyone keeps expecting the Bengals to rebound, but they keep losing to teams that aren’t horrible. Their only wins have come against the Raiders, Browns, Giants, and Panthers. The Steelers are obviously much better than any team in that group, and yet they’re getting points in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We had a question on Tuesday’s show about when Orlando Brown would return to the lineup. Brown was limited in Wednesday’s practice. If he can make it back to the field, that would be huge for Cincinnati.

PLAYER PROPS: Darnell Washington has seen an uptick in production ever since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. The Bengals struggle against tight ends, so Washington should be able to clear the low yardage total. The best number is over 14.5 receiving yards -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Orlando Brown will be available for the Bengals after practicing fully on Friday. The sharp money has come in on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Orlando Brown is active, but Logan Wilson is not. The sharps bet the Bengals, but I’d still lean toward the Steelers. The best line is +3 -109 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -2.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

The Steelers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 71% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Steelers have won 26 of the last 35 meetings.

Mike Tomlin is 62-34 ATS as an underdog.

Russell Wilson is 33-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Russell Wilson is 35-18 ATS as an underdog.

Joe Burrow is 41-21 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (4-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 18-8 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 33 degrees. Light wind.