2024 NFL Picks – Week 13: Giants at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Anyone who just looked at the box score of the Cowboys-Redskins game may wonder if Dallas is suddenly an offensive juggernaut because it scored 34 points. Before late-game special teams nonsense, however, Dallas scored just 13 points. The team made up for its offensive line injuries by having Cooper Rush release the ball quickly. Rush spent the least time with the ball last week than any other quarterback this year.

The Redskins couldn’t quite figure out what the Cowboys were doing because they were sleepwalking through the game, but the Giants will be able to counter this. Dallas may feel as though it would need to utilize the same strategy, given how effectively the Giants can rush the quarterback. It also seems unlikely that the Cowboys would have their offensive linemen back after just four days.

One slim advantage the Cowboys will have is rushing the ball. The Giants are horrendous against the run. However, I’m calling this a slim edge because Rico Dowdle isn’t a very good player.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants will have to worry about Dallas’ pass rush as well. This may not have been the case earlier in the year when Andrew Thomas was playing, but the Giants have missed their All-Pro left tackle. They haven’t been able to pass protect at all without him.

Micah Parsons and company will obviously take advantage of this as well. Tommy DeVito was sacked frequently last week, and the same thing will occur on Thanksgiving unless the Giants establish the run and keep their meme quarterback in short-yardage situations.

The Giants should be able to run the ball. I like their chances of moving the chains on the ground better than Dallas. Devin Singletary and Tyrone Tracy are both superior runners, so they should be able to compile chunks of yardage throughout the afternoon.

RECAP: As mentioned above, the superior team needs to be highly considered as a potential wager in these Thursday games. However, I’m not sure if that would be the Giants or Cowboys. Both teams rank in the bottom five of my NFL Power Rankings. The Giants are lower, but it’s close enough to the margin of error.

Unfortunately, I don’t see an amazing betting opportunity in this game. The Giants quit because the front office made it known that tanking is the priority. Many players spoke out about Daniel Jones’ benching and eventual release. Those players did not try hard against the Buccaneers.

Players seldom quit for long, however, so the Giants may put forth a better effort in this contest. If so, they’ll have a good chance to cover against the Cowboys, a horrible team that doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a field goal over anyone. Dallas is a bad team coming off a win, and bad teams have problems sustaining success.

I also like the line value we have with the Giants, as this spread rose from the advance line of -2.5 to -4. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Giants, but this won’t be a big play because of the potential quit factor.

PLAYER PROP BET & SAME-GAME PARLAY: The Cowboys gave Rico Dowdle 19 carries last week. If he gets the same workload again, he’ll clear the over rushing prop. The Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, after all. The best number is over 66.5 rushing yards -113 at Caesars.

We’re going to throw in the Dowdle over rushing yards into a parlay with Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions, Luke Schoonmaker under 30.5 receiving yards, and Theo Johnson under 25.5 receiving yards. The Giants are force feeding Nabers the ball, and yet he still complained about a lack of targets last week. Both teams are also excellent against tight ends, though you can’t find the Schoonmaker leg in all sportsbooks. This $25 parlay pays $250. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s not ideal that the Giants will be missing Jermaine Eluemunor and that the Cowboys will have Tyler Smith back from injury. However, Drew Lock will start over Tommy DeVito, which is an upgrade. The Cowboys are still a terrible team and have no business being favored by more than a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand how the Lions let their huge lead slip away, so it sucks to start Thanksgiving off with a loss. I still like the Giants for a couple of units. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +4.5 -110 at Bookmaker or DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

Will the Giants keep quitting? The Cowboys are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone is on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 78% (227,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cowboys have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.