2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: 49ers at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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Week 5 Analysis: This was one of the most frustrating weeks in quite some time. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 3 units (loss): I was definitely wrong about this game. I didn’t think Aaron Rodgers would be confused by Brian Flores’ schemes, but he was.

Bengals, 4 units (loss): Yet another bad beat. This looked like a sure victory for a while. The Bengals, as underdogs, were up 24-14, 31-21, and 38-28. Joe Burrow threw a bone-headed interception at the end of regulation while trying to milk the clock, and then when the Bengals had the ball in Baltimore territory in overtime, they didn’t bother passing once even though Burrow lit up the Ravens for five touchdowns. The Bengals missed a field goal in overtime because of a botched hold of the ball, and Baltimore responded by winning. I don’t get how we keep getting this unlucky.

Bills, 3 units (loss): I wouldn’t necessary call this a bad beat, but we could have won this pick. The Bills fell behind 17-0 because the receivers dropped a million passes, including some potential deep touchdowns. Buffalo stormed back to tie the game at 20, but Josh Allen suffered a concussion, and while playing concussed, he heaved three completely inaccurate bombs from his own end zone to help set up Houston’s game-winning field goal.

Dolphins, 3 units (win): We almost lost this game at the end as well, but that would have been a bad beat because the Dolphins outgained the Patriots by nearly 100 yards. The only reason this game was close in the first place was because Miami had a punt blocked and missed two field goals, including one chip shot.

Browns, 3 units (loss): Woof, not even close. Sorry about this one.

Cardinals, 4 units (win): I would have gone to five units if the stupid 49ers didn’t rush their many questionable players back from injury.

Steelers, 5 units (loss): As if the day hadn’t gone against us enough, we lost this pick on the very last real play of the game. The Steelers led for a majority of the evening, but their defense surrendered a touchdown on fourth-and-goal with about 20 seconds remaining.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49er skill players have to be excited for this game. After seeing what Tyrone Tracy and Darius Slayton did to the Seattle defense last week, how could they not be?

The Seahawks are one of the weaker teams in the NFL against the run. They couldn’t stop Tracy last week or Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 2, among other rushing attacks. The Seattle front will have a very difficult time in this matchup, given that the 49ers run the ball better than most teams in the league. Jordan Mason should have a huge performance.

Mason’s running will set up easier throwing downs for Brock Purdy, who will have his entire arsenal at his disposal. That was technically the case for a couple of games prior to Week 5, but not really because Brandon Aiyuk wasn’t quite himself as he worked himself back from missing all of training camp. Aiyuk dominated Arizona and will be able to do the same thing in this matchup, given what Slayton accomplished.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The 49ers appeared to dodge a bullet with the Fred Warner injury. It seemed as if Warner would be sidelined for a game or two, but he managed to play this Sunday. Then again, he didn’t look nearly like himself, as he had his worst game of the year.

This has to be music to Seattle’s ears. The Seahawks already appeared to have a good matchup with Kenneth Walker on the ground. The 49ers ranked 22nd in rush defense EPA, but Walker will be able to be established as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He saw seven targets last week.

The Seahawks will also be able to move the ball downfield with Geno Smith connections to D.K. Metcalf and the other receivers. San Francisco doesn’t have an amazing secondary, especially with Talanoa Hufanga always coming in and out of the lineup due to injury. The cornerbacks aren’t amazing, so this is an area in which Seattle can attack.

RECAP: I’m going to post the link in my next pick capsule, but I put the 49ers in the underrated list of my overrated-underrated page for the first time all year. San Francisco is often a team that is thought of highly, but there are questions that are surfacing because of the team’s 2-3 start. The 49ers would have beaten the Cardinals had their kicker not gotten injured even though they were fully expected to be distracted with this game on the horizon.

The 49ers are a much better team than the Seahawks, who built their 3-2 record on beating bad opponents at the beginning of the season. They barely beat the horrible Patriots and let the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins hang around with them. They were also tripped up with a look-ahead spot, but they aren’t nearly as good as San Francisco.

If you’ve been reading my site for a while, you know where I’m going with this. My No. 1 rule for Thursday games is to select the superior team if they’re going to be focused. We know the 49ers are better than the Seahawks, and it’s obvious that they’ll be dialed in, given that they’re just 2-3 and coming off a loss.

This would have been a four-unit pick at -3. Unfortunately, the sharps moved this line to -3.5, off the top key number of three. I still like the 49ers, but will be downgrading this to a three-unit selection unless a -3 line reappears.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks could be down their top two defensive backs. No. 1 cornerback Tariq Woolen was ruled out, while safety Julian Love is questionable after nothing but limited designations in practice. This is obviously good news for the 49ers, though we’re still not getting any -3.5 lines.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: My favorite prop for tonight is Deebo Samuel over 49.5 receiving yards. Samuel did nothing last week, so this could be a squeaky wheel situation. Moreover, Samuel has led the 49ers in receiving in each of the past three meetings versus the Seahawks, who will be missing two players in their secondary. I hate promoting ESPNBet, but they have the best number by far, which is over 49.5 -135.

Speaking of ESPNBet, they have a 30-percent profit boost for tonight’s same-game parlay. I’m putting the Samuel prop with George Kittle 50+ receiving yards, Jordan Mason 80+ rushing yards, and Kenneth Walker 25+ receiving yards. The Seahawks are also weak to tight ends and running backs. The 49ers, meanwhile, allow tons of receiving yardage to opposing backs, and Walker has cleared 30 receiving yards in his two games back from injury. This $20 parlay pays $234.

I’m adding one more parlay because Caesars has a 50-percent boost on a same-game parlay with a max bet of $10. My parlay will be 49ers -3.5, Jordan Mason anytime touchdown, Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown, Samuel over 52.5 receiving yards, and Kenneth Walker over 22.5 receiving yards. This $10 parlay pays $150 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both top cornerbacks are out. I still like the 49ers for three units. The sharps took San Francisco at -3, but haven’t touched this game at -3.5. Unfortunately, there are no viable -3s available. The best line is -3.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Sharp action on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 76% (315,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.