2024 NFL Picks – Week 6: Steelers at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers were awful on this side of the ball on Sunday night. They had a positive matchup against a depleted Dallas defense, yet could barely move the chains. They were limited to just 276 net yards of offense.

The passing game was defunct because Justin Fields’ pass protection was shoddy, while George Pickens was benched due to a lack of effort. James Daniels’ absence made a huge difference in Fields’ blocking, and yet this was against a Dallas front missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Raiders are capable of producing pressure on the quarterback if Maxx Crosby is healthy. That hasn’t been the case in recent weeks, but Crosby’s ability to play last week is a good sign that he’ll be more effective this Sunday.

The Steelers couldn’t run the ball either. I don’t know how they’ll fix this in the near term. Perhaps Jaylen Warren’s return from injury will help, but Najee Harris looks like he weighs 300 pounds. The Raiders have a poor rush defense, but so did the Colts and Cowboys, and yet Harris couldn’t exploit those matchups.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Pittsburgh’s defense was a colossal disappointment as well on Sunday night. The Steelers couldn’t get off the field against the Cowboys in the fourth quarter, and Dallas moved the chains well in between the 20s all evening anyway. Pittsburgh forced some turnovers, but it wasn’t enough.

The problem for the Steelers is that they’re not producing any sort of pressure outside of T.J. Watt. They’re only 19th in pressure rate, which is a horrible ranking considering how amazing Watt is. This is great news for the Raiders, who haven’t blocked well. Thayer Munford’s potential return and Dylan Parham’s improved health will help in this regard.

The Steelers also handled the run poorly Sunday night. This was something new, as Pittsburgh was in the top 10 of this department previously. The Raiders don’t rush the ball very well, so I anticipate that Pittsburgh’s ground defense will be back to normal for this game.

RECAP: You want to bet on the Steelers when they were underdogs or very small favorites. It becomes troublesome when they’re -3, especially on the road. Mike Tomlin has just a 40-percent cover rate when he’s favored by three as a visitor.

It’d be one thing if these Steelers were a good team with an explosive offense, but they just lost to the Cowboys and couldn’t generate anything offensively. With Pickens benched, they have no dynamic threats downfield, while their pass protection just isn’t there with Daniels sidelined. The Raiders may not seem like a challenging opponent, but this is a team that beat the Ravens and Browns this year. They just lost in a blowout to the Broncos, but they were missing countless players due to injury. It’s likely that they’ll be healthier this week, and that includes Crosby, who wasn’t nearly himself last week.

Assuming the Raiders are healthier this week, I’ll like them to pull the upset against the Steelers, who look like they’re in a tailspin. They were effectively blown out at Indianapolis before a late comeback, and they just suffered a defeat to a horrible Dallas team. I don’t see why they should be favored by three on the road against a team that has shown the capability of upsetting opponents.

I’m going to be on the Raiders for multiple units. How many exactly will depend on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Raiders switched quarterbacks to Aidan O’Connell, which I love. What I don’t love is that Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller both missed Wednesday’s practice. I thought about moving this to four units, but I’d like to see those guys log some practices.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Steelers are down all their edge rushers not named T.J. Watt, as Alex Highsmih, Nick Herbig, and DeMarvin Leal are all out. Remember how good the Cowboys offense was in the second half on Sunday night? The Steelers didn’t have those three players, so they could have similar issues rushing the passer. Speaking of pass rushers, Maxx Crosby will play. Jakobi Meyers and Thayer Munford are questionable after both going DNP-DNP-limited. I still plan on betting three units on the Raiders.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATES: The Raiders have a number of questionable players on the injury report. The inactives list will be crucial in determining how many units I bet on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news, bad news for the Raiders. The good news is that Maxx Crosby will play. The bad news is that Jakobi Meyers is out. I still like the Raiders for three units. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but if you want to bet the Raiders as well, you can find a viable +3.5 at DraftKings, which is priced at +3.5 -118. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone still loves the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 80% (82,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.