2024 NFL Picks – Week 5: Bills at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: The inexperience Josh Allen has with his receivers not named Khalil Shakir finally came back to bite the Bills last week in an embarrassing blowout. The Ravens had a great game plan against the Bills, who were befuddled the entire evening.

This is an easier matchup for Allen. Though the Texans generate pressure on the quarterback, they don’t do anything else well on this side of the ball. They’ve really struggled to cover, and that includes Derek Stingley Jr. Perhaps this will be the week that Allen starts to gel with his receivers.

The Texans also happen to be sub par against the run, ranking 22nd against it. James Cook couldn’t find any room versus Baltimore’s stout rush defense last week, but he’ll perform much better in this contest.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans haven’t been as explosive on this side of the ball as many thought they would be. Bobby Slowik was guilty of some poor play-calling last week, opting to hand the ball off to Cam Akers on early downs far too often despite battling a pass-funnel Jacksonville defense. Perhaps Slowik’s thinking is that he wanted to protect C.J. Stroud, whose offensive line hasn’t performed up to par this season.

Part of the reason for this is that Laremy Tunsil is hobbled. He missed 20 snaps last week because he had to take a break. Meanwhile, the guards have been poor. There will be opportunities for the Bills to generate a consistent pass rush on Stroud.

Stroud won’t be able to capitalize on poor cornerback play like he did last week either. The Bills actually defend the outside extremely well with their talented cornerbacks, Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford. They’re weak over the middle of the field because of their linebacker injuries, but the Texans haven’t been attacking the middle of the field very effectively this year.

RECAP: This game has two angles I like. One was prevalent twice last week. Whenever one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL suffers a loss, that piques my interest as long as he’s not favored by more than a touchdown. This is because top quarterbacks tend to play at their best to overcome adversity. Allen, like all other great quarterbacks, has a winning spread record coming off a defeat (11-7 ATS).

The other angle is backing a good team coming off an embarrassing loss. The Bills were humiliated coming off a national TV loss to the Ravens. They’ll be at their best in this game.

I wish Buffalo had talented receivers to take advantage of Houston’s secondary problems. That’s my only hangup here, as the Bills pass rush should be able to dominate the Texans’ offensive line, which has struggled the past couple of weeks with Tunsil being hobbled with an injury.

I will be betting a few units on the Bills. This has the potential to be a top play depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson will be back for the Bills, which is a huge boon for their ability to cover the middle of the field. Conversely, the Texans may be without Laremy Tunsil, who missed Wednesday’s practice. Joe Mixon was also sidelined Wednesday, so if he misses this game, Bobby Slowik will waste more firs and second downs running with the anemic Cam Akers.

PLAYER PROPS: Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is a weird number. He’s become the forgotten man in the offense, as he’s cleared 21 receiving yards just once. It’ll only get worse with Tank Dell returning this week. The Bills have been solid against tight ends except for Jonnu Smith’s weird performance in Week 2. Tre McBride was even limited to 30 yards in Week 1. The Bills will be better over the middle of the field with players returning from injury. The best number is under 26.5 receiving yards -115 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills flipped from being a one-point favorite to a one-point underdog because of their injuries. Khalil Shakir, Ed Oliver, Taylor Rapp, and Ambassador Von Miller will all be out. This is unfortunate, but none of these are cluster injuries. Plus, at least one of Terrel Bernard or Taron Johnson could return to action. My projected wager continues to be three units on Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills will get Terrel Bernard back for this game, which is a nice boost for the defense. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.

Computer Model: Bills -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Lots of late money on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 74% (128,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Josh Allen is 11-7 ATS off a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.