By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Posted Nov. 5, 2016.
Follow @walterfootball for updates.
START: Jarvis Landry dismantled Todd Bowles’ secondary earlier in the season and now he faces them again in Miami with their slot corner Buster Skrine hurting. Last week, the Browns’ slot receiver Andrew Hawkins scored twice on the Jets, and overall, their secondary ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. Landry makes for a safe play across all formats.
SIT: Ben Roethlisberger has upside that is out of this world each week in this offense, so the “sit” call is for those with a good alternate, but this does look like a tough draw for Roethlisberger in Baltimore. First off, he has been awful on the road over the last few years. Over the previous two seasons and so far this year, Roethlisberger has thrown an amazing 51 touchdowns to 13 interceptions at home, while throwing just 18 touchdowns to 18 interceptions on the road. His best wide receiver has been routinely shutdown against Baltimore as well, with just one touchdown through eight games for Antonio Brown against the Ravens. I’m a little more optimistic than these numbers suggest, but don’t just expect a healthy Roethlisberger two weeks removed from knee surgery to put up huge numbers in Baltimore.
START: Charcandrick West will get the start and see the bulk of the running back work against the Jaguars this week due to Spencer Ware being out with a concussion. West was leap-frogged by Ware on the depth chart, but he also has shown ability as the lead back in the past. He’s not going to take over a game, but Andy Reid will use him early and often in a nice matchup against the Jaguars, who rank 27th in rush defense DVOA. Play him at will across the board.
SIT: Todd Gurley gets a tough matchup against the Panthers this week to go along with his already poor 2016. The Panthers have allowed one 100-yard rusher, and that was to Jacquizz Rodgers who had 30 carries for 101 yards. Last week, they stuffed David Johnson on the ground for 24 yards on just 10 carries. Of course, Gurley isn’t a “must sit” this week because he just gets too much work and recently is getting more usage in the passing game, but if you need a big performance from him, you are going to be sweating.
START: Michael Thomas gave us a bit of a scare with a limited practice on Friday, but he’s not on the injury report and appears to be a complete go in a great matchup. All of the Saints receivers are “starts” this week, but Thomas has been especially good of late, even last week against Richard Sherman. The 49ers lost a starting corner in Rashard Robinson two weeks ago and will be running out plenty of scrubs in the secondary.
SIT: Frank Gore faces a Packers defense that is stout against the run and weak against the pass. They’ve allowed just 3.4 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns to running backs. They’re also the only team to have kept an opposing team’s running backs to fewer than 100 total yards per game.
START: Colin Kaepernick has been awful as a passer and his rushing attempts haven’t really been anything fantastic, but he just keeps running and over the last two games has 150 yards rushing, which for a quarterback, well, it’s great for fantasy. But so far, he’s mainly been useful in 2QB leagues or DFS. This week however, he has his highest possible upside waiting for him against a Saints team that will score plenty and allow plenty of scores.
SIT: Derek Carr will take on the Broncos’ No. 1 pass defense, and despite his huge game last week against the Buccaneers, you should at least look for a better option this week. The Broncos have only given up six passing touchdowns compared to eight interceptions through eight games this season and only one touchdown pass allowed in three road games. No quarterback has topped 267 yards against them, and Carr has never eclipsed 250 yards or two touchdowns against them in his career.
START: Kenny Britt gets a nice draw this week against the Panthers, who have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. With their tough run defense, they force their opponents to pass the ball, which then works for their opponents. Torrey Smith, Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, and J.J. Nelson have all had great success against them this season, and Britt fits the style of play of most of those receivers listed.
START: Theo Riddick is healthy despite seeing some limited practices this week, and he is the no-doubt lead back for the Lions going into a tough matchup with the Vikings. The good news for Riddick is that the Vikings should be susceptible to his receiving prowess as Marvin Jones and Golden Tate get worked on by the Vikings strong cornerbacks. Riddick has seen 15 or more touches in each of his last five games, and many of those will be receptions this week. I like him in PPR leagues a lot and as a contrarian DFS play.
SIT: Marvin Jones and Golden Tate will both have tough matchups this week and could be worth benching if you have good alternatives. Tate has yet to top 50 yards receiving, while Theo Riddick is healthy and Jones has seen a drop in targets of late. Add in the Vikings’ exceedingly good stats against wide receivers this season, and I’m pretty nervous about these two.
START: Kyle Rudolph and Stefon Diggs get top matchups this week against the Lions’ pitiful pass defense. Detroit has allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season and are relentless in their ineptitude, while they rank dead last in DVOA against the pass, and only two of the six quarterbacks they’ve faced have finished outside the top 12 in fantasy production. Diggs has been on fire when healthy this year, and he isn’t on the injury report this week. Start him up.
START: Darren Sproles played in more than 80 percent of the snaps last week against Dallas and looked good, totaling over 100 yards and bringing in five receptions. That’s a nice start in PPR leagues and a worthwhile one in non-PPR. He should also be cheap in DFS, which puts him in a good spot for PPR scoring. The matchup is just OK, but Sproles is the kind of player who can accumulate fantasy points against good defenses with receptions.
SIT: Corey Coleman is a great talent, but this matchup with the Cowboys is a bit dangerous. The Cowboys’ defensive talent can be beaten, but as a team, they play keep away so well with their run game that opponents barely get a full game’s worth of plays in. The Cowboys haven’t allowed one wide receiver to top 100 yards this season, and Coleman is coming off a broken hand and Cody Kessler has been using Terrelle Pryor as his No. 1 receiver in the meantime. I feel that with Kessler at quarterback and the Cowboys grinding the game down, Coleman will have trouble.
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