2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Jets at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: Anyone who has watched the most recent Star Wars movies knows that the three newest films have been horrible. Here’s a different direction they could have gone, and it involves Randy Savage:

As nonsensical as this is, it’s a billion times better than Episode VIII!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Without looking, can you guess which team led the league in missed tackles per game heading into Week 13? Perhaps I’m leading the witness here, but it is, in fact, the Jets. One would think that with all the talent New York has, this wouldn’t be the case, but it sadly has been. The Jets can’t tackle at all, thanks to their horrible coaching.

The Jets’ inability to tackle will have a huge impact on this game because the Dolphins now prefer to get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa’s hands and into the arms of his talented skill players. New York will surely miss many tackles against De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith.

Speaking of Achane, some may expect him to thrive as a runner because the Jets also struggle to stop the run. However, New York has actually improved its ability to stop ground attacks recently. This, however, doesn’t mean that Achane won’t have a big game, as I expect him to be a dominant producer as a receiver out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Jets have been far worse defensively than expected, the opposite is true of Miami. The Dolphins have put the clamps on some of their opponents recently, as their pass rush has been superb. Zach Sieler and Chop Robinson have been monsters in the trenches.

The Jets don’t block well, so it’s hard to like Aaron Rodgers’ chances of succeeding in this matchup. Tyron Smith being injured has had a huge impact on Rodgers, who is not protected well by rookie left tackle Olu Fashanu. Let’s not forget, by the way, that Joe Douglas passed on Brock Bowers in favor of Fashanu because he didn’t want to draft a tight end in the first round. You have to wonder where New York would be with Bowers serving as a dynamic threat over the middle of the field for Rodgers.

At any rate, Rodgers will continue to struggle, and he won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack either. The Dolphins clamp down on the run very well. The last time any running back gained more than 62 rushing yards against them was Oct. 6.

RECAP: A popular sentiment I’ve seen ahead of Week 14 is that this spread is surprisingly high. No one seems to believe that the Dolphins should be -6.5 instead of something like -3.5 or -4.

I actually think this spread is too low! My projected numbers say that the Dolphins should be -9. The EPA figures are even mor extreme. The metrics have the Jets as the worst team in the NFL right now, so the EPA line says Miami -14 is correct.

We know how both of these teams operate by now. The Dolphins can’t beat the good teams, but they’ll beat all the bad teams. And the Jets will lose to everyone because they are horrible. New York was gifted 21 points on special teams last week, yet still found a way to lose to Seattle at home. And yet, everyone continues to bet them. I referred to the Jets – and also the Bengals and 49ers – as falling knives, comparing them to plummeting stocks in the stock market people buy because the price looks like a bargain, but in reality, it’s not even close to hitting rock bottom. This perfectly describes the Jets, who have covered the spread only once since Week 3.

I like that Miami is coming off a blowout loss with extended rest. Good teams tend to bounce back after being embarrassed. It could be argued that Miami isn’t good, but the team certainly has lots of talent. Perhaps they’re the worst of the good teams or the best of the mediocre onces. Either way, the Dolphins look like they’re in a great spot to rebound and feast on a hapless Jets squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner, and Alijah Vera-Tucker all missed Wednesday’s practice. As someone who will be betting on the Dolphins, I was very happy to see that news.

PLAYER PROPS: Nothing stands out to me in this game. The Dolphins are very weak against tight ends, but Aaron Rodgers stopped using Tyler Conklin after Davante Adams was acquired.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets are going to be missing lots of personnel. Sauce Gardner and Breece Hall are both doubtful. Tyron Smith is already on injured reserve, and Alijah Vera-Tucker, Morgan Moses, and Olu Fashanu all look iffy to play. C.J. Mosley was placed on injured reserve. This team already sucked, and now they have lots of injuries. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will have Kendall Fuller back, and Bradley Chubb could return as well.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been mixed on this game. They bet the Jets earlier in the week, but then jumped on the Dolphins late. Unfortunately, that means all the -6s are gone. The best line is -6.5 -107 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins are coming off a blowout loss.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -14.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Lots of late money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 76% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Dolphins have won 11 of the last 13 meetings.

Aaron Rodgers is 131-96 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 30-22 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-27 ATS after a loss (14-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Dolphins are 34-47 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Sunny, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.