2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Chargers at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s weird to say that an 11-1 team isn’t playing well, but that’s the case with the Chiefs. They have trouble moving the chains at times, stemming from their poor edge blocking. They’ve gone through multiple left tackles and haven’t found a solution. Now, they get to go up against Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. What could possibly happen?

Well, the Chiefs could actually block well. Confused? Well, Kansas City signed D.J. Humphries a couple of weeks ago. Humphries is a talented tackle who has overcome an injury, and he’s finally ready to play this week. His presence could help Mahomes quite a bit. The Chargers have some injuries in the secondary, so the opportunities will be there for Mahomes if he has ample time in the pocket.

Speaking of Charger injuries, the team has been without Denzel Perryman for the past couple of weeks. Perryman has been the key to stopping the run, so his absence would be huge in this game because this will be Isiah Pacheco’s second contest back from injury. Pacheco wasn’t very involved against the Raiders on Black Friday, but he’ll have a greater workload in this better matchup.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chiefs have had their struggles on this side of the ball as well. They haven’t been able to defend opposing passing games at all, surrendering huge performances to Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell of all quarterbacks. If they couldn’t stop Young or O’Connell, how will they deal with Justin Herbert?

Herbert should thrive in this matchup, provided he can be protected. The offensive line has usually been a strength this season, but the blocking was non-existent last week, with Atlanta’s horrible pass rush surrendering five sacks. The Chiefs can get after the quarterback, so perhaps Herbert will feel the pressure once again.

The Chiefs will have the luxury of focusing on the passing attack. This wouldn’t have been the case if J.K. Dobbins were still on the team, but he has landed on injured reserve. Gus Edwards is a horrible back who shouldn’t be in the NFL, and he won’t muster any sort of yardage against a stout rush defense.

RECAP: The Chiefs treat the regular season as if they were an NBA team. They goof around and seldom try 100 percent. They experiment by doing weird things on the goal line. They’re hardly at peak efficiency.

Kansas City will, however, show up if it feels threatened. This occurred in the season opener when the Chiefs got out to a huge lead against the Ravens. It also occurred in the middle of the season when the Chiefs battled the 49ers and won by 10. I think this is going to be a similar instance. The Chargers have made some noise and are seen as a threat in the playoffs. They’re 8-4, so if they win this game, they’ll be just two behind Kansas City in the standings. And everyone is talking about how bad the Chiefs have been the past couple of weeks.

This is typically where the Chiefs shine. Furthermore, the Chargers are no longer at full strength. They lost their only viable running back, and they’ve had some injuries on defense. I could perhaps buy them as being the play if they were completely healthy, but that is definitely not the case anymore.

Despite what I just wrote, I don’t think I’ll be betting Kansas City heavily, or even at all. They have been that bad recently. I think they’ll turn things around, but I could be dead wrong about that. We’ll have to see what the injury report looks like before I make any final determination.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Great news for the Chargers: Ladd McConkey, Denzel Perryman, and Cam Hart were all limited in practice. I considered the Chiefs as a bet if the Chargers continued to be banged up, but I’m not there right now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Denzel Perryman is doubtful, which is horrible news for the Chargers. Ladd McConkey is questionable after being limited all week, but he may not be 100 percent if he plays. I’ve decided to bet three units on the Chiefs. I love that everyone is doubting them; it’s almost like they’re coming off a loss, and they have the luxury of two extra days of preparation. The Chargers have looked bad the past two weeks, despite the win in Atlanta, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Chiefs won this game convincingly.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: Isiah Pacheco made his return last week. He had just as many carries as Kareem Hunt, but he was just getting his feet wet. He’ll see a much larger workload this week, and he’ll be battling a run defense that is so much worse without Denzel Perryman. The best number is over 48.5 rushing yards -113 at FanDuel.

We’re going to throw the Pacheco over rushing yards in a same-game parlay with DeAndre Hopkins over 42.5 receiving yards, Will Dissly over 35.5 receiving yards, and Joshua Palmer over 34.5 receiving yards. The Chargers have been weak to No. 1 receivers as well. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have struggled versus tight ends and No. 2 receivers. Palmer may seem like an odd pick, but he’s gone over 34.5 receiving yards in all but two games since Week 4. This $25 parlay pays $271.40 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D.J. Humphries is expected to start, which should be a huge boost for the Chiefs.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.J. Humphries is indeed playing, while Ladd McConkey is out. This has caused sharp money to come in on Kansas City, driving the line up to -4.5. The best line is -4.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 61% (183,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 18 of the last 21 meetings.

Patrick Mahomes is 95-25 SU, 63-55 ATS (49-41 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.