2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Panthers at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: This was the Panthers I expected to see at the beginning of the year. They’ve lost two in a row, but they’ve been highly competitive in their games against the Chiefs and Buccaneers. Young appears to have taken the next step, as opposed to the broken quarterback we saw get blown out against the Saints and Chargers to begin the season.

Young will be tested here, however, as he just went against two defenses that have been struggling against the pass. The Eagles are a different animal, thanks to their two brilliant rookie cornerbacks. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will be able to limit Young’s receivers, which could cause the former No. 1 overall pick to panic.

One thing that will be in Young’s favor is that he’ll be able to have time in the pocket despite staring down Philadelphia’s pass rush. The Panthers block well, so this will be key because Young won’t be able to lean on the run at all, given that the Eagles are one of the top teams when it comes to stopping ground attacks.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: While the Eagles excel at stopping the run, the Panthers are anemic against it. They have one of the worst ground defense units in the NFL, so it’ll take a miracle for them to even come close to containing Saquon Barkley.

Barkley running wild will cause obvious problems for the Panthers. Jalen Hurts will constantly be in short-yardage situations, which will help negate Carolina’s pass rush. The Panthers struggled mightily to get to the quarterback earlier in the year, but D.J. Wonnum’s return to the lineup has greatly changed that.

Hurts being able to avoid the pass rush with not just short-yardage situations, but with his mobility will be huge for the Eagles. A.J. Brown should have a great game as a consequence, as he’ll pick up where Mike Evans left off last week.

RECAP: We’re about to see what Young is truly made of. He has played well in recent weeks, but every defense he has battled in the past four games – Saints, Giants, Chiefs, Buccaneers – is ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in net EPA. The Eagles are first. It’ll be much more difficult for Young to avoid the bad play that plagued him prior to his benching.

The Eagles seem like the right side, but I’m worried about their focus. They are coming off a huge statement victory over the Ravens, and after this “easy” game, they have to battle the Steelers, Redskins, and Cowboys. This game could be like the contest the Eagles had against the Jaguars several weeks ago when they went up 22-0 and then allowed a back-door cover when they goofed around.

An argument could be made with siding with Carolina. I just worry too much about the Eagles covering with ease if they decide to concentrate on this game. They are chasing the No. 1 seed, after all, so it’s possible that they could be focused.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeVonta Smith practiced fully on Wednesday, so he’s ready to go. He’s coming back at the right time because Dallas Goedert is considered “week to week” with a knee injury.

PLAYER PROPS: The Eagles barely threw against the Ravens, which is why A.J. Brown’s receiving yards remained frozen throughout the second half. The Panthers are poor to outside receivers, so Brown should have a big game. The best number is over 76.5 receiving yards -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers have been better defensively lately, but they could be down a couple of impactful players on this side of the ball. Josey Jewell and D.J. Wonnum are both questionable. Jewell was limited-DNP-limited this week, so he’s very iffy. Wonnum at least got in a full session on Friday, so he should be good to go. The Eagles will be worth a bet if both players are out, so stay tuned for updates Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sure you’ve seen the news that someone bet $3.1 million on the Eagles to win outright. However, the payout is for less than $500,000, so it’s not a hue liability for Circa, so I’m not concerned. There was some sharp money on the Eagles at -12.5 and -13. The line is now -14. The best vig you can get is -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Eagles battle the Steelers, Redskins, and Cowboys afer this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -13.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -13.

Computer Model: Eagles -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Slight lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 62% (98,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 50 degrees. Light wind.