2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Seahawks at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Despite beating the Cardinals by double digits in the first meeting, the Seahawks didn’t run the ball very well. They tried to do so with Kenneth Walker, but he was barely able to eclipse 40 rushing yards. Arizona struggled earlier in the year to defend the run, but has gotten much better against it.

Despite not being able to run with Walker, the Seahawks were still able to move the chains in their 16-6 victory. They did so via the passing game, primarily targeting Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who out-produced D.K. Metcalf. Smith-Njigba has been excellent of late, and there’s no reason to think that he’ll regress at all in the same matchup.

Metcalf should be a bigger factor in the passing attack this time, especially given that the Cardinals can allow production to outside receivers. Walker should also be a contributor as a receiver out of the backfield. He had 11 more receiving yards than rushing yards despite leading for most of the afternoon.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals scored just six points in the loss to Seattle two weeks ago. They had a chance for more, but Kyler Murray missed a couple of open receivers for touchdowns in the game. Murray hasn’t been incredibly sharp since the bye, as he had a whacky interception while leading against the Vikings last week.

Murray will have to do it all himself in this game because the Seahawks are impossible to run against. This was not the case earlier in the season, namely October, when Seattle went into a swoon with losses to the Giants and other pedestrian opponents. Leonard Williams was hurt, but ever since he recovered from his injury, Seattle has been one of the most dominant units against the run. James Conner mustered only eight rushing yards in this matchup two weeks ago.

Murray will at least be able to move the chains by targeting Trey McBride. While the Seahawks are now terrific against the run, they can’t stop tight ends at all. McBride, who has been on fire, hauled in 12 balls for 133 yards at Seattle.

RECAP: I didn’t know what to make of the first Seahawks-Cardinals game, and I almost have similar feelings about this one. These teams are similar, and if they had to play each other 10 times, I think both teams would win on five occasions.

However, there is an odd element here, and that would be the fact that the Seahawks and Cardinals just battled each other two weeks ago. The NFL has started matching teams up twice in a span of three weeks recently, and it’s had some interesting results. Teams that have lost in these situations have bounced back at a high rate. They’re 49-34 against the spread, which is a 59-percent cover rate. If you remove teams that are highly favored (-6 or more), they are 46-31 ATS in the revenge game.

I hate handicapping with trends, but this one makes sense. It’s almost like the zig-zag rule in the NBA playoffs. The Cardinals are going to be able to construct a quality game plan to combat the Seahawks, and Seattle may not be ready for it.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting a great number, so I’m not going to be betting this highly, or anything. I think the Cardinals are worth a small wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some buzz about DK Metcalf being injured, but he was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so there’s a good chance he plays this week. Leonard Williams missed Wednesday’s practice, so that could be something to watch the rest of the week.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re still awaiting some injury news, so no props here yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf returned to a full practice on Friday. Kenneth Walker was DNP, but I’m not concerned about that. Walker has not run well lately, and Zach Charbonnet is a premium backup.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kenneth Walker is out, but as I wrote above, it’s not a big deal for me. The sharps have bet the Cardinals up to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps bet the Cardinals up to -3, but not at -3. The best line is -3 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.5.

Computer Model: Cardinals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Cardinals are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 73% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road team has won 13 of the past 19 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Cardinals are 51-34 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.