2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Packers at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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Week 13 Analysis: We just had a great week! I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Lions, 3 units (loss): Our great week didn’t start off so well, with there being a bit of a bad beat. The Lions were up 16-0, but Jahmyr Gibbs fumbled inside the 5-yard line, and then Detroit barely scored in the second half.

Redskins, 4 units (win): This one was never in doubt.

Chargers, 3 units (win): The Chargers didn’t play as well as I thought they would, but they still were able to hang on for the win and cover.

Patriots, 3 units (win): We jumped on the Patriots late in the week when it was apparent that the Colts would have so many offensive line issues.

Rams, 5 units (win): The Rams began slowly, but caught fire in the second half. Still, this was a nail-biter at the end.

Bills, 5 units (win): Another one that was never in doubt, though we did get unlucky with Christian McCaffrey getting hurt because we had his over receiving yards. He was halfway there at the end of the first quarter!

Broncos, 5 units (win): I can’t believe the Broncos covered. We’ve had so much bad luck this year, so it was great to get one thing to go our way.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Teams that can’t stop the run against the Lions have no chance. This is why it was so shocking that the Bears came back from a 16-0 deficit on Thanksgiving. Sure, it could have been 23-0 had Gibbs not fumbled inside the 5-yard line, but Detroit’s inability to score beyond one touchdown in the second half was completely unexpected.

While the Bears are poor versus the run, the Packers have improved markedly against it this year. They just clamped down on De’Von Achane and Christian McCaffrey in consecutive weeks, so they could do a decent job of limiting the two Detroit backs, especially if Gibbs isn’t at 100 percent. Gibbs disappeared in the second half, ultimately receiving 12 fewer carries than David Montgomery.

The Packers are great overall on this side of the ball, as they also produce a ton of pressure without blitzing often. One area of weakness is their inability to defend tight ends. Sam LaPorta has been a huge disappointment this year, but perhaps Detroit can finally get him going.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Packers have improved against the run. The Lions are tremendous when it comes to stopping the rush. In fact, they’re No. 1 in EPA rush defense. Josh Jacobs has been awesome for the Packers, but it’ll have to be “No Cookie” Jordan Love doing most of the damage this week.

Love was tasked with the same responsibility when these teams met in Week 9. Love, however, was horrible in that game because he was dealing with a groin injury. Love couldn’t move out of pressure, which led to a pick-six. He also couldn’t move downfield to spike the ball in a 2-minute drill. He shouldn’t have played in that first matchup.

Love is healthy now, and he could make amends for that prior loss. He’ll be able to target Jayden Reed, who has a great outlook against a Detroit defense that struggles to cover slot receivers. The Lions also have other issues in their back seven as a result of injuries. Christian Watson has a good chance of catching a deep pass or two, replicating what he did on Thanksgiving about a year ago.

RECAP: I have a few primary rules for Thursday and London games. One of them is to bet the better team if they’re going to be focused. The reason for this is that bad teams don’t have a chance to formulate a great game plan against a superior foe, which gives the better team a big advantage.

None of this applies this Thursday, however, because both the Lions and Packers played last Thursday, making this a regular-rest game for them. Thus, I have no issue taking the points.

The Lions easily won and covered in Green Bay, but the Packers seem like the right side this time. In that first meeting, the Lions were the easy play because Love was injured. Well, the turntables have turned this time because the Lions are now the team that is dealing with injuries. Detroit is going to be missing several defenders, and there’s no telling if Gibbs will be limited again.

The Packers seem like a good bet at +3.5. They’re one of the top teams in the NFC, and they showed last year that they can go toe to toe with Detroit. This seems like a field goal game to me, so backing the underdog makes sense.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Lions will be missing Taylor Decker and D.J. Reader on top of the players they have on injured reserve. I still like the Packers for a couple of units. Thus far, there’s been sharp money on Green Bay.

PLAYER PROP & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I’m betting on Jayden Reed tonight. The Lions have given up lots of production to slot receivers, and Reed will see an uptick in production with Romeo Doubs sidelined. The best number is over 59.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM.

We’re going to throw in the Reed over receiving yards, but at FanDuel (62.5) because BetMGM doesn’t have Sam LaPorta. I’m going over LaPorta receiving yards (38.5) and Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yards (20.5) because the Packers tend to allow a lot of production to tight ends and receiving backs. We’re also going under Tucker Kraft receiving yards (39.5) because the Lions are usually stout against tight ends. This $25 parlay pays $255 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Packers, and I agree with it. The Lions are very banged up, so this should be a close game. Most of the +3.5 lines are gone, but you can still get +3.5 -115 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.

Computer Model: Lions -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 51% (294,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Packers are 66-43 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 55-39 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Dome.