2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Falcons at Vikings

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Back in May, I theorized as to why the Falcons would possibly draft Michael Penix Jr. when they had just paid Kirk Cousins $100 million. I thought that perhaps the Falcons saw Cousins throw off his torn Achilles and thought, “Ah crap, this guy’s a lemon. We need another quarterback option for this year.” That obviously didn’t come to fruition, but perhaps I was just a few months too early.

Cousins has been terrible lately. He scored just six points against the Broncos despite Jameis Winston throwing for nearly 500 yards against that same defense a couple of weeks later. Following the bye, Cousins laid an egg against the Chargers, throwing four interceptions. One was in desperation mode, but the other three were horrible. There could be more interceptions to come, given that Cousins will be battling a coaching staff that is very familiar with him. Brian Flores is capable of confusing opposing quarterbacks, so he could befuddle his former signal-caller.

The Falcons won’t have the luxury of turning to the running game either. Bijan Robinson is great, but has an extremely difficult matchup against the Vikings, who have one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Sam Darnold can definitely sympathize with Cousins’ bouts with interceptions. He had a pick spree several weeks ago. He launched two interceptions into the end zone versus the Jaguars, nearly costing Minnesota a victory against one of the worst teams in the NFL. Darnold has bounced back since, however, and has been pick-free in the past few weeks.

Darnold should remain mistake-free after this game because of the simple matchup. The Falcons have a troubled secondary that has been abused all year. Granted, it improved last week with a couple of players returning from injury, but there were still problems, particularly when it came to defending the slot. The Falcons have also been weak to tight ends all year, though this wasn’t the case a week ago.

Despite the ineptitude of Atlanta’s secondary, the Falcons were able to limit the Chargers last week. They did this very unexpectedly, sacking Justin Herbert five times. Herbert is protected well, so I don’t understand where that came from. Perhaps the Falcons figured something out during the bye week. If so, they’ll have a chance to slow down the opposition once again because the Vikings haven’t quite been the same since losing Christian Darrisaw to a season-ending injury.

RECAP: You can almost sense that the bottom is going to fall out for the Vikings. They’re 5-1 ever since Christian Darrisaw was lost for the year, but they’ve barely gotten by bad teams. For example, they beat the Jaguars by only five, and then had to escape the Bears in overtime two weeks later. They trailed Arizona 19-6 before a late rally. Minnesota has not played a team that currently has a winning record since losing Darrisaw.

The Falcons don’t have a winning record either, however. They’ve been downright terrible at times, especially when they’ve had to go out of the division. They were blown out by the Seahawks at home and recently were throttled at Denver. They had a chance to beat the wounded Chargers last week, but Cousins imploded with four interceptions.

Cousins, off the four-pick performance, should be more careful with the football this week, so he could, at the very least, keep this contest close. Besides, if the Vikings couldn’t beat the Jaguars, Bears, or Cardinals by more than five, why would they necessarily defeat Atlanta by a wider margin?

I don’t like the Falcons as a wager, but I will be siding with them. This is a tough game to handicap overall because I would rather fade both teams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but there’s been some sharp money coming in on Minnesota. I get it, but I would not be so eager to lay more than a field goal with Sam Darnold.

PLAYER PROPS: Kyle Pitts hasn’t done much in a while, but with Kirk Cousins struggling, Atlanta may get him going. Besides, the Vikings have been very leaky against tight ends lately. The number is only over 33.5 receiving yards -115, which you can find at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: There didn’t look to be too many pressing injury matters earlier in the week, but Stephon Gilmore was ruled out, while Andrew Van Ginkel and Harrison Phillips are both questionable. Van Ginkel is the big name, and he was limited all week. Phillips, meanwhile, was downgraded to limited on Friday. If Van Ginkel is out, I may consider a unit on the Falcons, but remember that none of these qualify as cluster injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Andrew Van Ginkel is active, so I won’t be betting on the Falcons. The sharps were betting the Vikings at lines below -6. The best line is +6 -105 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.5.

Computer Model: Vikings -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 59% (124,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Vikings are 46-37 ATS at home since 2014 (15-22 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Vikings -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.