2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Browns at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below. In addition to WalterFootball t-shirts, you can also buy AMC and GameStop stock gear as well!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Jameis Winston was incredible on Monday night. He made some incredible throws deep downfield to Jerry Jeudy to keep pace in a shootout with the Broncos. He was also incredible for our sportsbook account with his two pick-sixes, including the final one that clinched the cover. It was truly the complete Jameis Winston experience.

Winston will have a chance to continue his mostly strong play. He thrived in this matchup two weeks ago despite snowy conditions. He hit Jeudy six times for 85 yards, and that figures to continue with Pittsburgh having some issues defending outside receivers on deep shots. Pittsburgh can help mask this deficiency with its great pass rush, but that didn’t affect Winston very much two weeks ago because the Browns have a strong offensive line.

We will have to see if Winston will have all of his weapons on the field. Cedric Tillman missed the Monday night game with a concussion. Meanwhile, Nick Chubb barely played. Chubb had one of his better games this year against Pittsburgh, but that’s not really saying much.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Russell Wilson didn’t have quite as much success as Winston in Thursday’s blizzard. The moon balls weren’t all there, save for a couple of exceptions. The result was the team’s third loss of the year, though Wilson bounced back nicely the following week. He torched the hapless Bengals for 400-plus yards.

Wilson doesn’t seem likely to have another great performance. The Browns can get after the quarterback with Myles Garrett and company, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line simply doesn’t project to give Wilson enough time in this matchup.

The Steelers would be better served establishing the run. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for 86 rushing yards in this matchup two weeks ago, and that’s not even factoring in Justin Fields’ 26 rushing yards. The prior week, the Browns surrendered big gains to Taysom Hill. On Monday night, Jaleel McLaughlin looked like a decent back against them. Pittsburgh should be able to move the chains on the ground.

RECAP: One of the reasons we faded the Browns on Monday night was because they were coming off a win. Bad teams struggle to sustain success. So, it was quite shocking that Cleveland was able to compete with the Broncos. The Browns were so close to winning on a field goal at the end.

The Browns are no longer coming off a victory, so they’re fair game in this rematch. I can understand the Steelers being able to formulate a new game plan to avenge the Week 12 loss, but Winston has shown that he’s fully capable of engineering late drives to score back-door touchdowns. He can also secure covers for the opposition with back-breaking pick-sixes, so it could certainly go the other way.

I’m going to side with the Browns, but I don’t really see a strong betting angle in this game, aside from the fact that the Steelers have to battle the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs after this contest. Plus, Mike Tomlin isn’t at his best when favored.

I don’t think the look-ahead factor is enough for me to bet this game. Maybe that’s for the best because the Broncos-Browns game may have shaved five years off my life, and I don’t think I can handle another Jameis adventure so soon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Cedric Tillman, Jedrick Wills, and Juan Thornhill all failed to return to Wednesday’s practice. Then again, the Browns just played on Monday, so a quick return to practice for these guys shouldn’t have been expected.

PLAYER PROPS: No props stand out to me here, so I’ll pass on them in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: George Pickens was a downgrade on Friday with a hamstring, but he was limited and not out. I wouldn’t be too worried about it. I’m still neutral on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: George Pickens is out. This itself is not enough for me to bet the Browns. The sharps are on Cleveland though. The only good +6.5 line I see is for -108 vig at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers have to play the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -6.

Computer Model: Steelers -2.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 39 of the last 49 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Steelers are 43-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Mike Tomlin is 11-6 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Opening Line: Steelers -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.