2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Saints at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 in 2022, and they were 31-27 ATS in 2023. Publicly backed sides were 33-28 ATS through 11 weeks.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Texans -4.5

Buccaneers -6

Cowboys -4

Seahawks +1.5

Lions -10

Not a good week from the public. They hit with the Cowboys and Seahawks, but lost with the other three. The public is now 35-31.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Steelers -6

Saints -5

Bills -4

Seahawks +3

A nice variety here, with two road favorites, a home favorite, and a road underdog.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have lost so many offensive weapons and blockers this offseason, what’s two more? As if they didn’t have enough injuries on this side of the ball, the Saints saw Taysom Hill and Nick Saldiveri get carted off the field last week. Saldiveri was starting for one of the injured linemen, while Hill was obviously the key cog of the New Orleans’ offensive unit.

All hope isn’t lost, however, because there’s a chance the Saints could have two of their offensive linemen (Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz) back from injury, with McCoy being the key piece because he’s one of the best centers in the NFL. As for Hill, he’ll sorely be missed as a do-it-all gadget player, but his absence will unlock Alvin Kamara. The star back has been restricted in his usage because of Hill’s presence, but he’ll get the entire workload now. He has a great matchup against the Giants, who can’t stop the run at all.

Kamara’s presence as a runner and a receiver will at least keep the Giants honest. The one thing New York does well on this side of the ball is rush the passer – although that will be diminished in the wake of Dexter Lawrence’s injury – so it’ll help Derek Carr if he’s in constant short-yardage situations. Carr will need enough time to launch some downfield throws to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which will be possible against the Giants’ troubled secondary.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Whatever troubles the Saints have offensively pales in comparison to what the Giants are experiencing. New York’s attempts to move the ball were pathetic against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving following an early drive that featured a long Drew Lock scramble. Lock was responsible for some horrible turnovers, while the other players made mistakes to ruin any sort of momentum the Giants could possibly establish.

It’s hard to imagine anything changing in this game. Some Giants players have called it quits after the front office and coaching staff decided to bench Daniel Jones and then cut him. The players know that the intention is to lose, so why should they care about winning? Furthermore, the Giants can’t block at all, which will be a problem in this game. The Saints have a pass rush that’s ranked slightly below average, but the unit was able to pressure Matthew Stafford consistently last week, and Stafford is protected better than either of the New York quarterbacks.

If the Giants can move the ball at all in this game, it’ll be via the run. Tyrone Tracy has plenty of upside, but he’s also been very prone to fumbling. He has a quality matchup, but the downside is certainly there.

RECAP: If I had any faith in the Giants trying, I would consider them as a bet this week. The Saints are not a good team, so it’s almost absurd that they would be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone.

The Giants, however, are in another stratosphere as far as futility is concerned. The front office made it known to the players that they are tanking by benching and then cutting their top quarterback. The players complained about it, and the team has performed accordingly since, losing badly to the Buccaneers and Cowboys. Now, the Giants will be even worse without Lawrence.

I’m going to be on the Saints as a pure fade of this blatantly tanking Giants team. Besides, there’s enough here to justify a pick on New Orleans. Kamara has a great matchup, while the Saints pass rush, which was better than usual last week, could give New York’s quarterback fits. And we saw this game already anyway. It occurred two weeks ago when the Buccaneers went into New York and blasted the Giants. The Saints aren’t as good as the Buccaneers, but keep in mind that Mike Evans didn’t play all the snaps in that game, plus this spread isn’t as high as that one was.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re really hoping for Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz to return to action (especially the former). Ruiz missed Wednesday’s practice, but McCoy was limited.

PLAYER PROPS: Alvin Kamara should go nuts in this game. The Giants run defense sucks, and Taysom Hill is gone, so Kamara will do everything. The best number is over 78.5 rushing yards -120 at BetMGM.

SATURDAY NOTES: We got exactly what we wanted on the injury report. Both Saints interior linemen will be back in the lineup. The Giants, meanwhile, will have cluster injuries at offensive tackle (Andrew Thomas and Jermaine Eluemunor out) and defensive tackle (top three players out). Not only that, but Malik Nabers and Andru Phillips were DNP on Friday, while Bobby Okereke is out. I’m increasing the unit count to four.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints will have both interior linemen. The Giants, conversely, won’t have Dru Phillips, so they have cluster injuries at cornerback in addition to offensive tackle and defensive tackle. Malik Nabers is active, but expected to be limited. I love the Saints, and so do the sharps. The best line is Saints -5.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Giants are tanking.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.

Computer Model: Saints -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons of action on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 71% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Derek Carr is 10-20 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.

Derek Carr is 7-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 46 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.