2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Raiders at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: You may have noticed that Baker Mayfield missed a couple of snaps against the Panthers, and then, upon return, threw an interception. This transpired in the middle of the game when Mayfield was cleated in the back of his right leg. It looked like a serious injury at the time, but Mayfield was perfect upon finishing the game. He even had a key scramble to set up a late score.

There’s no concern with Mayfield missing this game. He’ll be ready to go with Mike Evans against a horrid Raiders pass defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone since losing Christian Wilkins on top of Malcolm Koonce. The Raiders can obviously still get some pressure with Maxx Crosby, but Mayfield is protected well, thanks to the return of Tristan Wirfs. He’ll have enough time in the pocket to deliver strikes to Evans and Cade Otton, both of whom have tremendous matchups in this game.

The Buccaneers will also feed the ball to Bucky Irving, who has been excellent in the two games since the bye. The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, but really only by default. They’ve allowed some big games to De’Von Achane and Chase Brown recently.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Unlike the Buccaneers, the Raiders won’t get much on the ground. They have one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, with pedestrian backs running behind a poor offensive line. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, clamp down on the rush extremely well.

It’ll have to be all on Aidan O’Connell, though to his credit, he performed on a high level in the second half against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s pass defense has struggled this year, but the same can be said of Tampa’s stop unit – for the most part. While the Buccaneers have surrendered some huge performances through the air, those have been exclusively to quality quarterbacks. Bad quarterbacks have done poorly against them, which is a phenomenon I’ll expand on in the recap section.

O’Connell will have an opportunity to move the chains on throws to Brock Bowers, who has a dream matchup. It could be argued that Bowers is already the best tight end in the NFL, and he’ll be going against a Tampa Bay defense that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends all year.

RECAP: I wrote that I wasn’t sure what to do with the Buccaneers last week. This pertained to their ability to dismantle bad quarterbacks. Dating back to last year when the defense first declined, the Buccaneers have battled the following bad quarterbacks: Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder (twice), Will Levis, Bryce Young (twice), Spencer Rattler, and now Tommy DeVito. In those eight games, they’ve allowed an average of 14.5 points, and they’re 6-2 against the spread.

I wasn’t sure, however, if Young belonged in that pantheon last week because his play had improved. Surely enough, Young played well enough to win. He was a Chuba Hubbard lost fumble away from being victorious.

I’m confident that O’Connell belongs in that group. He had a good game against Kansas City, but the Chiefs defense has been leaking oil recently. O’Connell was the third-worst quarterback in the NFL last year, according to EPA when discarding garbage time. He was utterly atrocious earlier this year against the Steelers. Bowles will throw enough at him to confuse him, while the Raider defense won’t be able to stop anything Tampa Bay is doing.

This isn’t one of my biggest plays of the week, but I like the Buccaneers enough to bet a few units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Mike Evans and Bucky Irving missed Wednesday’s practice, which is far from ideal when considering that I plan on betting three units on the Buccaneers.

PLAYER PROPS: We bet Brock Bowers’ over receiving yards on Black Friday. That worked out, and so we’re going to run it back. Bowers has been incredible, and he’s going up against one of the worst defenses in the NFL when it comes to defending tight ends. The best number is over 69.5 receiving yards -113 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mike Evans will play, but Bucky Irving’s status is unknown. I’m not as bullish on the Buccaneers after thinking about this game some more. The Raiders have a big rest edge with the two extra days of preparation. The Buccaneers, conversely, are coming off overtime and travel. I did the research, and teams coming off overtime and shorter rest than their opponent are 41-49 ATS since the lockout. It’s not automatically disqualifying, as you can see, but it doesn’t seem like a great spot. Plus, the Raiders offense has been better since Norv Turner joined the team since the bye.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Raiders at +7. The only +7 I’m seeing is for -115 vig at DraftKings. I considered switching my pick, but I’ll stick with the Buccaneers. The best line is -6.5 -114 at BetRivers. You can Get $500 in Second-Chance Bets from BetRivers by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -7.5.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Late money on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 71% (112,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 140-96 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 43-74 ATS at home in the previous 117 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.