2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Bills at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Bills had a great defensive performance in the snow on Sunday night. Matt Milano’s return was expected to be a huge factor, but it really wasn’t. Milano played about two-thirds of the snaps and wasn’t very effective. The Bills surrendered some big gains to the San Francisco running backs. Granted, it was difficult to run in the snow, but a fully healthy Milano would have negated some of this.

There’s a chance Milano will play much better this week in his second game back in action inside a dome. The Bills will need him to be better because the Rams will utilize both running backs heavily. Both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum were involved versus the Saints, and the Rams will want to use the same game plan to keep Buffalo’s offense off the field.

Matthew Stafford won’t have as much success throwing, given that the Bills are terrific against outside receivers. Puka Nacua has been excellent since returning from injury, but he’ll have his work cut out for him in this matchup, as will Stafford, who will be dealing with a pass rush ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate. Alaric Jackson will be needed back for this matchup.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Keeping Josh Allen off the field will be vital for the Rams because they don’t have the personnel to stop what the Bills are trying to do. Two weeks ago, the Eagles came into Los Angeles and steamrolled the Rams with Saquon Barkley. Last week, Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill picked up some tough yards on the ground against Los Angeles until Hill suffered his season-ending injury.

The Bills are going to run effectively with Allen and James Cook. Allen previously said that he won’t do much scrambling early in the season to preserve himself, but he would be more active with his legs later in the season. He could have a big rushing day, as could Cook, who is always capable of breaking a big gain.

The Rams also happen to be weak against tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been out the past two games, so perhaps he’ll return to action. Even if he doesn’t, Dawson Knox has proven that he can be productive as a replacement.

RECAP: I like the Rams. Not in this game, but in general. They’re well coached, they have an improved defense, they have several offensive weapons, they’re quarterbacked at a high level, and they have good talent on their offensive line. I bet them at +400 to win the division prior to the season for all of these reasons.

However, while the Rams are a very good team, they’re not a great team. I don’t think they can reliably beat the best teams in the NFL. We saw this phenomenon a couple of weeks ago when the Eagles went into Los Angeles and dominated the Rams. The Bills are on the same level as the Eagles. They don’t have Saquon Barkley, but Allen can use his legs or hand the ball off to Cook and generate big gains.

The one caveat here is that the Bills may not be focused because it’s a potential sandwich situation. They’re coming off a statement win on national TV against the 49ers, and after this game, they have to take on the Lions. If they’re unprepared for the Rams, they could suffer a surprising loss, but it’s possible that they’ll be ready to take on Los Angeles, perhaps viewing this as a business trip of sorts.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alaric Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice, which is a huge deal against Buffalo’s pass rush. The Bills, meanwhile, had everyone back in some capacity, including Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, both of whom were limited.

PLAYER PROPS: The Rams allow big games to tight ends, but we don’t know if Dalton Kincaid will be available. I’ll like Kincaid or Dawson Knox, depending on who starts.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alaric Jackson might be back this week with two limited sessions in practice. There’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent even if he returns. I’m still leaning toward the Bills.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may bet the Bills if I see a viable -3 line. We discussed Josh Allen versus the NFC on the After Dark show last night:

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Rams. However, I said I’d bet the Bills if I saw a viable -3 line. We have just that at Bookmaker. The line is -3 -124. This is going to be a one-unit wager. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Bills are coming off a big win against the 49ers. After this game, they take on the Lions.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -3.5.

Computer Model: Bills -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 80% (99,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Opening Line: Bills -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.