2024 NFL Picks – Week 14: Bears at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Figs. My dentist’s office is packed with attractive female workers. How badly would I crash and burn with them if I were single?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: A huge difference between the 49ers this year and last year, even when they were winning, was the red zone offense. They were first in the red zone last year, but have constantly been in the bottom five this season. I thought Christian McCaffrey’s return to the lineup would help, but it didn’t. Now, we know it won’t because McCaffrey is out for the year, as is Jordan Mason.

The 49ers still have Isaac Guerendo to run the ball against a weak rush defense, but the 49ers’ inability to produce deep in enemy territory will still be prevalent. Guerendo’s effectiveness will also depend on the availability of the San Francisco offensive linemen. Trent Williams and Aaron Banks were both sidelined against the Bills. The Bears can generate quality pressure on the quarterback, so they’ll be able to exploit weaknesses on the 49ers front line if Williams and Banks are out again. Williams was using a scooter to get around the locker room last week because it hurt too much to walk, so that’s not a good sign.

McCaffrey, Williams, and Banks weren’t the only injured San Francisco offensive players last week. Brandon Aiyuk has been out for a while, and it doesn’t seem as though Deebo Samuel is healthy. This is very significant if Williams is sidelined because George Kittle has to block more when the All-Pro left tackle is out of the lineup. Thus, Brock Purdy’s weapons could once again be limited.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The 49ers have plenty of injuries on this side of the ball as well. Nick Bosa has been sidelined the past two weeks, while the other All-Pro defender on the roster, Fred Warner, admitted that he’s playing on a fractured ankle. Warner’s diminished play is one of the reasons why the 49ers have missed so many tackles this year.

D’Andre Swift is excellent at forcing missed tackles, so this seems like a good matchup for the Bears. Swift already figured to have a big game because the 49ers are currently ranked 26th in adjusted EPA rush defense.

Caleb Williams should also do well while dodging defenders. Williams has played much better ever since the Bears made an offensive coordinator change. He’s running more, which will work if Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday night is any indication. Williams should have plenty of success targeting the red-hot Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet because the 49ers have fared poorly against slot receivers and tight ends.

RECAP: The 49ers are the second of the three falling knives I initially mentioned in the Dolphins-Jets pick capsule. Everyone keeps expecting the 49ers to bounce back, but they won’t do it. Instead, they blow leads, suffer colossal defeats, or barely squeak by bad or injury-ravaged teams like the Mike Evans-less Buccaneers.

Now, the 49ers have even more injuries than before. McCaffrey and several others have been ruled out for the year. We’ll see if Williams and Bosa both play, but there’s no guarantee that either will be 100 percent even if they suit up.

I definitely like the Bears, and it’s not just a play against San Francisco. Chicago has changed coaches, which is usually bullish for the short term. Players often will try harder than usual because they don’t want the finger pointed at them. Besides, the Bears could easily have a much better record than they do now. If you only reverse the Hail Mary and blocked field goal, they’re 6-6. If you give them the win versus Detroit, they’re 7-5. If the Bears were 7-5, they wouldn’t be getting more than a field goal against this overrated San Francisco team.

The Bears are a top play this week, though it’s vital to see who exactly will be playing for the 49ers. Check back later for updates, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams and Nick Bosa both missed Wednesday’s practice, but the Bears had some injuries as well with D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, and Keenan Allen all missing practice on Wednesday as well. I won’t be as interested in the Bears if all of those players are sidelined.

PLAYER PROPS: We’re waiting on injury news to D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift, so I may have something here on Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift were limited on Friday. They’re both listed as questionable. Of course, the big news is with the 49ers. Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are out again, as is Dre Greenlaw. Aaron Banks is questionable, but he didn’t practice once this week. Talanoa Hufanga and Deommodore Lenoir figure to return, but it won’t be enough.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift are expected to play, which is obviously great news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both D.J. Moore and D’Andre Swift will play. The sharps have been betting the Bears all week. The best line is +3 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The Bears are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 68% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Bears are 22-42 ATS in December road games the previous 64 instances.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 63 degrees. Light wind.