The NFL Matt Draft Blog
This is Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog, where he'll talk about the NFL Draft, anything that has to do with football and whatever else is on his mind.
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Posted Jan. 5, 2008
2009 NFL Draft has an Uncanny Center Focus
When it comes to NFL fans fantasizing about their team putting together a highly successful NFL Draft class to lead their team to the Super Bowl the following season (okay, so Giant fans already know what this is like), an "ugly" center probably is usually not at the top of the NFL Draft wish list.
Let’s face it - center is not a "sexy" position. I mean, we do not exactly see the position highlighted on Total Access or SportsCenter. We do not have availability to offensive line statistics coming out of college. Center is not a position thought to have as big of an impact as tackle or guard, which to an extent is true.
Interior offensive linemen get overlooked in nearly every game preview because it just is not a fun position to talk about.
Keyshawn Johnson might say something like, "You know, Matt Birk is really big and strong... reminds me of my days at USC..." then he goes on to discuss why he hates Bill Parcells and does not respect big receivers in the league.
It is not a highly coveted position, but 2009 has one of the best center classes the NFL Draft has ever seen. I am projecting Alex Mack as THE BEST center prospect since Bruce Matthews in the 1983 NFL Draft. I am not saying he is as good as Matthews as a Hall of Famer, just they match up talent-wise in foresight.
Max Unger from Oregon brings great versatility to the table with athleticism and intelligence to boot. Many consider Mack and Unger to be first-round projections.
Arkansas product Jonathan Luigs has the prototypical center build and a nasty demeanor with great strength. Some Draftniks feel like Eric Wood, Antoine Caldwell, and A.Q. Shipley have sleeper potential on D-Day.
When you reflect on the NFL Draft, you cannot find many classes with three to four projected starters. The last time two or more centers were taken in the first round was 26 years ago in 1983 (Bruce Matthews, Dave Rimington, Dan Mosebar). I would say this is the best center class by far since then.
This center class is special and deserves the recognition they are not getting among Draftniks.
Among teams looking for a starting center in the first two rounds could be Minnesota (Birk is a free agent), Buffalo, Kansas City, Atlanta, Washington, Arizona, and Baltimore (Jason Brown is a free agent).
Posted Jan. 3, 2008
Josh Freeman Declares for the 2009 NFL Draft
A surprising announcement was made two days ago when Kansas State signal caller Josh Freeman declared for the 2009 NFL Draft. The NFL Advisory Committee told him he would likely be a high second-round pick. The KSU program is going to go through a coaching change, but was this the best decision for Freeman?
It remains to be seen. I have a hard time seeing a 6-6, 250-pound quarterback with a big arm fall in the NFL Draft.
I however, would not take Freeman in the first round. He is not a very polished quarterback who should take a few years to develop. He is still very raw and does not show much maturity for a pocket passer. Then again, I did say Joe Flacco would take one or two years to develop. So much for that prediction.
I guess what I am getting at is I think Freeman could end up missing out on millions. A high second-round pick earns about a million dollars a season. Freeman could also end up rising on some teams' draft board like Flacco, who made bank at five years, $30 million with Baltimore.
It would not shock me to see some team trade up for or draft Freeman in the first round. Tampa Bay is desperate for a franchise quarterback. Maybe Detroit plans to go with Freeman with their second first round pick, allowing them to take an Andre Smith or Michael Oher at No. 1.
I would be somewhat shocked if the NFL teams saw Freeman as a project quarterback and looked past him in the first two rounds.
If I were Freeman, I might return to school for my senior season. I have the talent you cannot take away from me. I am not Brian Brohm or Colt Brennan with below-average arm strength. I have the potential to go in the top five and make some serious money.
This is certainly a gamble, but Freeman would grow more as a decision-maker and leader. However, he also risks injury and potentially having a disappointing season.
Either way, it is not a bad decision.
What grade do I have on Freeman? I would not draft him in the first two rounds. He never showed me much consistency, and I was not impressed with one of the three games I saw of Kansas State's this year. Looking at box scores, he only dominated against lesser competition, and only stepped up against Texas A&M. I saw too many errors in decision-making and reading defenses to give him a second-round grade. He has a tendency to stare down receivers, and like many underclassmen he does not throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open. He does a good job of not forcing throws, but the accuracy is far from where I want it to be.
High upside? Absolutely, but I would go back to school to work on accuracy and leadership, and take a chance on that top-five money in 2010.
Posted Jan. 1, 2008
Nate Davis Should Declare for the 2009 NFL Draft
Should I stay or should I go now?
It rarely happens in college football, but sometimes junior quarterbacks make the mistake of staying in school for their senior season. Omar Jacobs, Matt Leinart, Colt Brennan, and Brian Brohm all could have made more money had they declared for the NFL Draft as juniors. We have another rare occurrence.
If Nate Davis does not declare for the 2009 NFL Draft, he needs to be subject to a CAT scan. Matt Stafford might be the only projected starter at the quarterback in the NFL Draft if Sam Bradford decides to stay in Norman for his junior season. In a league where quarterback is regarded as the most valuable position and in high demand, your stock goes up in the NFL Draft simply because you take a snap.
If Stafford is the only junior to declare (besides Davis) there will be multiple teams in the NFL Draft prepared to spend a second-round pick on Davis - maybe even a first-round pick. How can you pass that up when you consider Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy (hypothetically), stay for their senior season, then consider the other juniors who could declare for the 2010 NFL Draft? There is much more competition for Davis in 2010.
Davis is a likely second-round pick in 2009, but could take a drastic fall in 2010. Maybe he suffers a huge injury. Maybe the scouts second guess themselves like they did with Jacobs, Brohm and Brennan. Maybe the other quarterbacks have phenomenal senior seasons.
Monetarily, this is a no-brainer.
What are my thoughts on Davis? I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds. Some people like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay feel like Davis has first-round talent. Davis isn't very big, he has average arm strength from what I can see, and plays in a shotgun offense.
Everyone glorifies the college game and talks about how great it is for the time you are there. Maybe so, but tell the quarterbacks who never had much of a professional career that staying for your senior year is worth passing up a contract worth in the neighborhood of three to four million dollars.
Posted Dec. 26, 2008
Why Matt Stafford is now my No. 1 player
Before the season, you would be hard pressed to find someone more hard on Matt Stafford than I. Most people praised Matt and anointed him as the No. 1 pick in the Draft despite the fact that he never threw for 300 yards in a game in his career. I had a major problem with this because Stafford never showed me consistency or production.
This year, after watching four of his games and taping two, I have come around to the Stafford bandwagon. His production has gone up in a tough defensive conference. He threw for more than 250 yards in seven games this year, and eclipsed 300 yards in three games. He improved his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 2.4:1.
You can look at Stafford and still say he is inaccurate and too much of a gunslinger throwing the ball into double coverage too often, but if you do that, you are not looking at what is being asked of Stafford.
I discovered an intriguing trend in Georgia's offensive design: It calls for virtually no short to intermediate routes in the passing game. Think Mike Martz with less shotgun. Stafford's only options downfield are into coverage, and that is the reason for so many of his interceptions. Once Stafford gets into a more traditional West Coast offense in the NFL, his completion percentage will go up and he will have easier options to throw the ball.
I learned this lesson because I made a huge mistake on Matt Ryan. I said Ryan did not deserve to go in the top five because of his issues with accuracy and decision making. Ryan made the excuse that he was asked to be an aggressive passer, but I was not buying it. After all, how am I supposed to know what the coaches are telling Ryan? He could just be another player making another excuse (maybe he got advice from Tony Romo).
Maybe I should have done more research in Ryan's options regarding routes and checkdowns, but I did not, and I vowed to never make that mistake again.
I am not saying Stafford is the No. 1 player on my board or the No. 1 quarterback, surpassing Sam Bradford, just because I messed up on Ryan. I just believe Stafford's arm strength is too elite to pass up and he has a lot of experience in a difficult offense to operate in the SEC. Sure, I would prefer better statistics, but there are plenty of college quarterbacks without a chance in the NFL who have great numbers.
So what are my thoughts now on Bradford? I do not see him committing because he is a sophomore, but considering the money top 10 picks garner, it would be hard to pass up. I certainly would go into the draft if I were Bradford.
If Bradford does declare, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Seattle might take a chance on him in the top eight. There are rumors of Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck being released. San Francisco might consider trading up.
I will also say I do not see any chance Bradford goes before Stafford. Bradford is getting all of the hype because he won the Heisman. I still think he is worthy of a top five pick because his accuracy and decision making is unparalled in college football, but his arm strength is just above average, and his upside does not come close to Stafford's. That is why JaMarcus Russell was chosen over Brady Quinn, and that is why Stafford will go ahead of Bradford on Draft Day.
Posted Dec. 1, 2008
College Football Playoff System
Barack Obama won the 2008 Presidential election by the largest margin in the past 20 years. Seven percent and nine million votes was the difference, but how did he do it?
Obama is a man of the people, especially college football fans advocating for a playoff system. There are more than nine million college football fans in this country wanting a playoff, so my only conclusion is going on ESPN saying he wants to implement a playoff system won him the Presidency - not that choosing a moose killing hockey mom who thinks dinosaurs co-existed with humans as your Vice President would lose you the election...
Anyway, it is not that easy. There are many problems associated with making a collegiate playoff system: cost for fans of these teams wanting to see the playoff games and trying to make the system as fair as possible.
I might not be running for the Presidency in 2012 on the WalterFootball.com party ticket (then again if the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska can be the heartbeat away from the Presidency six years later), but I do have a well thought-out playoff system taking care of a lot of problems along the way.
Here are a few elements you must understand before I disclose my system to you:
1. There is no such thing as a PERFECT PLAYOFF. Every playoff can be criticized. Nothing is perfect. Playoffs can be too long. Take a look at the NBA. Some teams last year got in with losing records and the playoffs drag on over a two-month period. More than half the league gets in the playoffs. It's a joke. In the NCAA Basketball tournament, 65 teams get in, but a No. 9-16 seed has never won the dance and never will because they lack the talent and depth. I think having one too many rounds is detrimental to the other 32 teams in the tournament because they are more tired than they should be later in the tournament.
So, every time you criticize my playoff and find a weakness, realize that your expectation of a perfect system doesn't exist. My playoff system has flaws, just like any other, but I do think it is one of the best presented.
2. Lines must be drawn on how many teams get in, in every playoff. Every year we hear the debating on who got left out of the NCAA basketball tourney, but quite frankly they do not matter because those teams have no chance of winning the dance anyway. If we had a four-team playoff now in college football, people would be debating about who did not get in. Then they make it an eight-team playoff, and it still is not good enough. People would then say, "Why can't we make it one round longer?" You have to draw the line somewhere, or you get a playoff that is too long. There will be teams shunned in a college football playoff, but you will have to get over this and accept it.
We cannot have too long of a playoff in college football for a few reasons. One, it would cost too much money for the fans supporting these programs to afford the tickets and travelling expenses associated with the games. Two, the meaning of the regular season would be diluted. No one cared last year in basketball when No. 1 Memphis played No. 2 Tennessee because we all knew they would be top seeds in the dance. I believe it is important to keep the regular season relevant. Three, the season cannot be too long because of the senior class. Some players in the senior class go onto the NFL and must compete in the Senior Bowl and Pro Days. If the playoff is too long then these players will be too exhausted for the Senior Bowl and the NFL season.
On to my playoff system.
This is a pretty simple premise with a few very important changes to the regular season and conference championships. This is an eight-team playoff. All of the big bowl games are done away with: Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, etc. The NCAA can find a way to sponsor these games somehow and just rename each with the sponsor's name. For example, one game would be called the Tostito's Bowl. This would probably generate more money with the brand name associated with the game as opposed to the Fiesta Bowl.
How are these eight teams voted in? The BCS computer system is used, and the Harris and USA Today polls are thrown out. Coaches have to focus on their team and conference only and should not be included in the BCS system. Instead, a formula is used with the BCS and the AP writers. I think the AP is comprised of a bunch of idiots, but we need some human subjective reasoning for this decision.
Changes to regular season? Yes. I think it is completely stupid how a team like USC gets three bye weeks in their regular season. It is not fair to other teams who only have one or two bye weeks. Instead, there is a set amount of games and bye weeks. Every team plays 12 regular season games starting in the last weekend of August, and each team is granted one bye week to use.
Also, conference championships are done away with. They are pretty pointless - except for the money they generate, but as fans, no one complains about these money makers. It is not fair that SEC and Big XII teams have to play an extra game, but the Pac 10 and Big Ten does not. Sometimes it is not fair to USC, who does not get an opportunity to improve their standing in a conference championship. To make this more conforming, all conference championships are done away with.
After the regular season is completed, there is an off week for all teams to rest, practice, and scout their opponents in the playoff or bowl games (if they are not selected to a playoff, then they play in a bowl in December).
There is a monetary issue with playoffs. Fans cannot afford to travel from destination to destination, especially with the economy going through the tubes. In this eight-team playoff, the first two rounds are home games. The higher seed gets the home game. The championship is played at a neutral location. This way, most fans do not have to pay for traveling expenses. Sure, there will be some fans from the visiting team, but this is better than having to travel from neutral location to neutral location.
So, there you have it. Nothing earth shattering, but it is more detailed than most systems presented. I know most of you would probably want 16 teams, but keep in mind an extra four games for the senior class would be detrimental to their rookie NFL seasons (one game makes a big difference), might not be enough rest prior to the Senior Bowl, and decrease the importance of the regular season.
Please e-mail with your questions and/or comments!
Posted Nov. 11, 2008
2009 NFL Draft: Junior Quarterbacks to Stay in School
In my latest 2009 NFL Mock Draft update, I discussed my change of thought in Matt Stafford being a top 3-5 draft pick. Part of the reason behind this is that I do not believe any other underclassmen will declare. We all know the senior quarterback class is a disaster. You would have to go back to the 2000 NFL Draft to find a quarterback class this bad. The crown jewel was Chad Pennington, but after him was Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, etc. Granted, Marc Bulger and Tom Brady turned out to be pretty good, but in foresight they were not highly regarded prospects.
Let me explain why I do not see Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Colt Mccoy, Josh Freeman, or Mark Sanchez declaring for the 2009 NFL Draft:
Tim Tebow: If Andre Woodson is going to fall to the sixth round and clear waivers twice because he has a slow release, then why should Tebow be an exception? His release is much worse than Woodson's, and his mechanics have not improved since his freshman year, unlike Woodson. Tebow's mobility does not project to the NFL. Every fake handoff and option he runs will be thrown out by NFL scouts. They see those things on film and know they are irrelevant because he will not run those plays in the NFL. I currently have a fourth-round grade on Tebow. He is not NFL material, and will stay for his senior year in Gainesville to try to win a championship or back-to-back championships.
Sam Bradford: I currently have a top-three grade on Sam Bradford. He is so close to being an elite player in my eyes. Still, he is only a redshirt sophomore, and will probably stay for his junior year at Oklahoma to win a championship. I could be wrong because he is pretty much locked into the first round, but it is rare sophomore quarterbacks declare.
Colt McCoy: McCoy is not an NFL quarterback. I have been saying this for a while despite the hype he received when draftniks declared he was a first- or a second-round pick. He was exposed against Texas Tech for having average arm strength and not being able to read a defense. Texas runs a gimmick spread offense, and McCoy relies on his mobility in designed runs to make plays. He will be exposed by NFL scouts, and will stay for his senior season.
Josh Freeman: Probably no player in college right now is misjudged on the box score more than Josh Freeman. He has a big arm, great mobility, solid awareness and poise in the pocket, but his decision-making is not even close to NFL-level. I have watched three games of Freeman's, and I have to say he is very far behind in his development with reading defenses.
Mark Sanchez: Sanchez will not come out because he has gotten cold of lately and he has limited starting experience. I have a first-round grade on Sanchez, but I think he will stay for their senior season like Matt Leinart.
Posted Nov. 5, 2008
2009 NFL Draft: Matt Stafford - a Top-Five NFL Draft Pick?
Matt Stafford came into the 2008 season with the Dark Knight-esque hype. He was the second coming of Carson Palmer and JaMarcus Russell with his jaw-dropping arm strength. The Georgia Bulldogs finished the 2007 season 11-2 with a dominating Sugar Bowl victory. Many thought they were the best team in the country even after LSU's championship victory.
I was not sold on Stafford. I saw a quarterback on game film with mediocre accuracy and decision-making. I did not see a great leader or any signs of urgency from him to win a game.
In only four games did Stafford complete more than 61 percent of his passes. He only averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt (YPA). His touchdown to interception ratio was 19:10 - not impressive. He ranked 61st in the country for pass attempts, relying on the Georgia defense and Knowshon Moreno to win games for him.
I knew how high his potential was; I just wanted him to step up his game and play like a quarterback worthy of a No. 1 pick.
Well, from time to time, every draftnik changes his mind.
I am now a believer that Matt Stafford is a top-five pick next April in the 2009 NFL Draft. Let me go over the reasons to explain myself:
1. Through his first eight games in 2007, Stafford averaged 6.06 YPA. This season, he has raised that to 8.5 YPA. He is making more plays in the passing game and being more of a reason for Georgia winning games. Georgia is ranked 39th in the country in rushing offense. Stafford has led this team to some big wins over South Carolina, Arizona State, Vanderbilt and LSU.
2. Franchise quarterbacks are viewed as extremely valuable on Draft Day, especially by new coaching regimes. If Joe Flacco out of Delaware is traded up for in the first round, then I cannot deny that some team is going to take Stafford in the top five, but more likely the top three picks. Despite Stafford's weaknesses, in the end I believe they will be overlooked because of his extremely high upside and ...
3. ...the lack of quarterback talent in the 2009 NFL Draft. There is no one in the senior class worth mentioning. I currently do not have a grade on any senior higher than the fourth round. It's pathetic.
I do not see Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman or Mark Sanchez declaring for 2009. I will blog about that soon. With no projected starter outside of Stafford in 2008, his draft value becomes even higher.
4. More teams than usual drafting high are in need of a franchise quarterback. In the 2008 NFL Draft, only Baltimore and Atlanta were desperately lacking a future at the position. Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco have nothing at quarterback. Seattle might even consider drafting Stafford with Matt Hasselbeck turning 34 soon. With three definite teams desperate for a franchise signal caller that will be drafting in the top six, Stafford is highly unlikely to fall. Also, the fact that there are no other quarterbacks in this draft, as I previously mentioned, means that Stafford's value goes up even more. It is a matter of supply and demand. There is a low supply of quarterbacks, and a very strong demand for franchise signal callers.
The college football insiders are saying that Stafford is a sure thing to bolt for the draft this year so there goes my theory of him staying for his senior year like Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart.
I know he just had a three-interception performance against Florida, but I do not think this will affect his stock much for reasons previously stated.
This does not have anything to do really with my opinion or grade on Stafford. Granted, I grade him higher than I did in the preseason because he has been more productive, but I still want to see a monster game (300-plus yards, three-plus touchdowns, one or less interceptions) and more urgency with his leadership like Matt Ryan at B.C.
Currently, I am giving Stafford my first-round/4-star grade.
Posted July 29, 2008
2008 NFL Draft: My No. 1 Rookie Sleeper:
"With the 252nd pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints select Marques Colston, wide receiver, Hofstra," and one of the biggest NFL Draft steals of all time was born. He was a seventh-round pick with a 4.55 40 time from a very small school.
In the 2008 NFL Draft, teams sought out for the next small-school wideout stud. The Bengals took Coastal Carolina product Jerome Simpson in the second round. Tampa Bay snagged the speedy Dexter Jackson out of Appalachian State in the second. Richmond receiver Arman Schields was taken by the Raiders in the fourth.
When I evaluate a player, games are 95 percent of my evaluation. Anyone who talks about 40 times a lot and changes up their big board five or six times during the Combine/Pro Day season doesn't put much emphasis on the actual games. You'd think that's the way to go, but in today's world, a lot of momentum is built up after the actual season. It's why four of the top five picks didn't attend the Senior Bowl, for fear of falling down draft boards with one bad week.
That's pretty much what happened with my sleeper.
Michigan State product Devin Thomas was said to be the No. 1 receiver in the draft if you polled the majority of draftniks. He had 1,260 yards and eight touchdowns in 2007. In 2006, he had 90 yards and one score. He only had one good season.
And by now, you're sick of reading this article without knowing who my No. 1 sleeper in the 2008 NFL Draft. Well, it's none other than Kentucky wideout Steve Johnson.
Johnson is dubbed an unathletic, one-year wonder as the reason why he fell to pick No. 224 in the 2008 Draft.
Why is he unathletic? People point to 40 times of 4.59 and 4.63 at the combine. Remember what I said about people who rave about 40s; they cannot evaluate game speed, so they have to rely on measurements.
"One-year wonder" is the label Johnson is dubbed as. He had 1,052 yards and 13 touchdowns in the toughest conference in the country. In 2006, he had 159 yards and one score. If you're going to blame Johnson for falling to the seventh because he was a "one-year wonder," then please also say Thomas should have been a fifth-round pick.
Johnson is a big receiver at 6-2, 210, with good muscle definition. He has very underrated speed from the game film I taped of him. He truly made some plays that just shocked me, and you will those in a second.
Johnson was Andre Woodson's No. 1 target last year after Keenan Burton went down with an injury, and he sure did deliver. He caught the game-winning pass against Louisville. He put up 111 yards on seven catches in a road game versus Arkansas. He made a few very critical plays on third down. He got better as the season went along. Versus No. 1 LSU, he put up 134 yards and the game-winning touchdown on just seven catches. Next week, he dominated Florida for 128 yards. In the final four games of the season, he accumulated 386 yards and five touchdowns. He finished his career very strong, he improved his route running, and he gained a ton of confidence.
On to the aforementioned game tape:
Play No. 1: This play displays how Johnson maximizes the yardage in the open field, which is the staple of the West Coast offense. (No. 13 at top of screen at flanker) Dig route: Notice after the catch, the amazing juke, then the automatic acceleration up the field. He avoided tackles and maximized the play.
Starting at 1:39 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=2vfJg3kIlBg
Play No. 2: To get 13 touchdowns, you have to be a pretty good red-zone receiver. Fade route; notice how Johnson catches the ball away from his body at the highest point possible, secures the ball, gets a foot inbounds, and displays those excellent ball skills. This play takes a lot of talent to make. Johnson uses his 6-2 frame to his advantage over the defensive back, and makes it look easy.
Starting at 4:36 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=C7rcH_VIPMA&feature=related
Play No. 3: Again, another play displaying his great ball skills. He gains a lot of separation on the smash route, and notice once again he makes the catch away from his body. He gained a solid eight yards after the catch, maximizing the play.
Starting at 4:46 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=2MhoCu28Uys&feature=related
Play No. 4: Same game versus LSU, but this is the game-winner. Goal line, sluggo route (slant n' go), double move. He leaves the corner stumbling in his jock as he hauls in the decisive grab. I love how Johnson sells the slant, then makes a hard cut. It's simply beautiful work and he reaps the reward with the touchdown. Again, notice the soft hands and catch made away from his body. This is great route running and clutch-play ability.
Starting at 3:07 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-VzpS41y0I&feature=related
Play #5: This was one of the most explosive plays I saw any receiver make out of the 2008 NFL Draft class. Bubble screen; watch Johnson make the catch then explode past the entire Florida State defense. Just an amazing play to say the least. Forty time? Take the 4.63 seconds. I love this play. In the open field, Johnson maximizes the yardage of the play once again at 5:39, setting up Myron Rolle for a very big touchdown. This is a game-breaking play, and it's why I love Johnson's fit in a West Coast offense.
Starting at 5:35 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=3wTSX9xwg2s&feature=related
If you think it's all about a 40 time, then during every game next season, get out a stopwatch. Time every player on the field, forget about breaking tackles, making the catch, or running routes being a part of the game... just time everyone. I'd like to see how far you get with that. I watch game tape, and on game tapel Steve Johnson was a player I gave a second-round draft grade. He is a very complete receiver who has great ball skills, clutch-catch ability and improving route running. He's a good redzone target who maximizes the yardage of the play.
I'm not expecting Steve Johnson to put up 900-1,000 yards next year, yet I also wouldn't be shocked if he beat out James Hardy for the No. 2 job by season's end. He will make an immediate contribution for the Bills somehow. About 450-600 yards is what I'm guessing. Nothing spectacular, but over time we are going to look back and think how a player as talented as Johnson fell to pick 224.
Once again, this is the NFL Draft. It's never going to be perfect. We are going to have busts in the top 10 and steals on Day 2. But for me, the Bills made highway robbery grabbing Steve Johnson in the seventh round.
Posted July 28, 2008
2008 NFL Draft Rookie Sleepers:
First-round picks aren't locks to become franchise players. It's easy to talk about which players are going to make instant impacts, but that's not what I'm doing in this article. Don't get me wrong; I'm not expecting instant success with most of these, but down the road they're the most likely to produce and have the talent to be consistent starters (or stars) in the NFL.
Dre Moore, DT, Buccaneers
Not many defensive tackles are 6-3, 305, and run a sub 4.9. Many said that Moore was lazy during games, but from what I watched, Moore was a consistent force. He was very productive, accumulating 62 tackles, 8.5 for loss, and six sacks. Glenn Dorsey had 69 tackles last season and seven sacks, yet it is interesting Moore is criticized as "lazy."
Tampa moved up in the fourth round to draft him to be the future three-technique, the position made famous by future Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. Moore has the measurables of Sapp, but can he play up to them? Surrounded by a wealth of young talent on the Bucs defense, if Moore can work hard off the field, he will be an extremely productive player.
Carl Nicks, OL, Saints
I was shocked Nicks fell this far in the draft, but when you listened to Charlie Casserly's comments on the NFL Network regarding Nicks, I guess we should have listened a little harder. He mentioned how Nicks has had serious character issues, which is why he dropped to the fifth round. That said, he was a first-round talent and should be an instant impact player on the Saints offensive line at guard or tackle. He can play nearly every position, as he absolutely dominated in his 2007 season and made the Senior Bowl look easy.
Again, he's got some attitude issues, but I have to go with the high upside if I'm picking a sleeper.
Ahtyba Rubin, NT, Browns
I was able to watch Iowa State only twice last year, but Ahtyba Rubin stood out to me dominating in the running game. He's not agile, and he's a bad "chase tackler," but he is a perfect fit as a zero-technique in the 3-4 (also known as nose tackle). He is going to be an anchor for Cleveland and command double teams. Rubin was very impressive at the Senior Bowl and showed more flexibility than I had anticipated. With the nose tackle position being a critical part of the 3-4, Cleveland got a steal late in the draft.
Andre Woodson, QB, Giants
Andre Woodson was the 13th player on my big board - and not for quarterbacks. He was my 13th best player in the draft and No. 2 quarterback. I don't care if he fell to the sixth round. I simply point my finger at Mel Kiper and the hype machine that got everyone down on Woodson for really no particular reason other than his release. I've never seen one player fall in the draft so far for one technical flaw. It's ridiculous.
Woodson has an extremely strong arm, great deep-ball accuracy, outstanding footwork, and good understanding of pass protection schemes and audibles, but most importantly, he has elite poise. He will stand in the pocket, take a big hit and get the throw off (see game-winning touchdown vs. LSU). When the game is on the line, time and time again Woodson looks like the calmest player on the field. He set the NCAA record for pass attempts without an interception at 325. He is a great decision-maker and was highly productive at Kentucky despite a pourous offensive line. Chad Henne, on the other hand was 1-3 in bowl games, never beat Ohio State, and had Jake Long as his left tackle for four years - yet somehow he gets drafted in the second round.
I had Woodson as my No. 2 quarterback, and Walt had him as his No. 1 quarterback. Woodson definitely has the WalterFootball.com stamp of approval.
Get back to me when the Giants deal Woodson for a first-rounder in 3-4 years in a Matt Schuab-like trade.
Peyton Hillis, FB, Broncos
Normally you don't see fullbacks on "sleeper" lists, but I loved this draft pick in the seventh round. Peyton Hillis is a great receiver out of the backfield and an extremely solid blocker. He's versatile and can make plays on third down. Great pick by Denver; I feel like they got a 12-year starter at the fullback position.
Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Broncos
Another solid second-day pick by the Broncos. Kory Lichtensteiger is tough, smart and strong. He should excel in the zone-blocking scheme. Centers don't look pretty, but they get the job done.
Jonathan Goff, ILB, Giants
One of the most fun players I broke down on film last year was Jonathan Goff. He was simply the leader on Vanderbilt's defense. He's fast and strong, and graded very high in my area for chase tackles, which is particularly important for inside linebackers to get to the edge and make plays. I like his athleticism in the middle of the defense, and in time he should take over for Antonio Pierce.
Picks like these are just one of the reasons why Jerry Reese has already cemented himself as one of the five best general managers in the NFL.
Jacob Tamme, Colts
It was pretty obvious to me, months before the draft, what the ideal destination for Jacob Tamme was: Playing in the slot with Peyton Manning. It's a match made in heaven. Tamme isn't explosive, but he did consistently time in the 4.5s. No doubt in my mind, between tight ends and receivers, Tamme had the best hands of any player in the 2008 NFL Draft. He's great when the ball is in the air and he regularly makes circus catches. He will very quickly become a favorite of Manning's. I'm not saying he is better than Dallas Clark, but he certainly has that kind of potential and he will live up to it.
Tomorrow I will break down my undoubtably No. 1 2008 NFL Draft sleeper, complete with YouTube video analysis highlights.
Posted May 23, 2008
The Dolphins' Future Bleak With Tuna's Track Record:
The most talked about team during the draft, and rightfully so, is the one with the No. 1 overall pick. This year it belonged to the Miami Dolphins, to let those of you know who haven't watched SportsCenter in the past five months.
The consensus is Miami made the right pick at No. 1 with Jake Long to solidify the offensive line. The consensus is Miami needed a quarterback judging by John Beck's ineptitude last season, after many thought Brady Quinn shouldn't have been passed up on in the 2007 Draft. The consensus is Bill Parcells' track record of talent is great and he is sure to make Miami a true contender in a few seasons.
I don't care what the consensus is. There are three points that are consensus in my book:
1. Miami is an extremely bad football team and it will take at least 3-4 seasons for them to get back to the playoffs.
2. You don't draft an average athlete with the first-overall pick (other than a quarterback), and that's exactly what Miami did with Jake Long.
3. Bill Parcells is extremely overrated when it comes to his eye for talent. He is simply just above average in this area. I don't go by opinion, but by his track record (I will get to that later).
Yeah, I was 99.99 percent sure Chris Long would be the No. 1 pick, and if I had to do my evaluation all over again prior to the Jake Long signing, I'd still have Chris as my No. 1 selection.
I heard many talk about the need for a left tackle. The need for leadership. The need for a great offense.
I know that the greatest passing attack (and possibly offense) in NFL history, just lost the Super Bowl. I know that you simply don't get better leadership than Chris Long, so Jake doesn't have an edge here. I know that Vernon Carey is a solid run blocker.
I think it's appropriate to call Miami possibly the worst defense in the NFL on paper, and we all should know by now that defense does win championships. Quentin Moses isn't going to do anything for this team down the road. Are we seriously talking about the same player who was cut by elite powerhouses in his rookie season like the Raiders and Cardinals?
So will Jake Long help the running game and offense as a whole improve? Yeah he will, but I also know that because of Tony Mandarich it's important to be a great athlete at left tackle, and Long is far from a great athlete with sluggish hips and feet. Don't be impressed when they showed highlights of him blocking the likes of James Lauriniaitis, SirDarean Adams, and a no-name from Northwestern on ESPN.
Impressive against Derrick Harvey? Absolutely, but they didn't go against each other much. Impressive against Vernon Gholston? Hardly - he got beat many times off the edge other than that one sack, and Gholston had a good game against the run.
The jury will be out on Long for a while. I don't like the pick, and Miami will regret passing up on Chris Long for many years. You simply win games getting pressure on the quarterback.
On to the even more questionable pick of Chad Henne in the second round: I'm not Dolphin-hating here; as you know I've never been a Henne fan.
He is called a great leader, but why? He had the best offense around him at Michigan for a few years (and arguably the best over a 4-year career), so who did he beat that was so great? Florida had an average defense last year, and he still threw two interceptions in that game still displaying questionable decision-making.
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the Ohio State game since he was injured, but let's go back to his sophomore and junior season with all that talent around him. Solid game against Ohio State, but he never defeated the Buckeyes in his career. If you're dubbed a "great leader" shouldn't you be able to win a big game or two in your career? If Henne had all this talent around him, why didn't he ever beat his hated rival once? He was 1-3 in bowl games.
If you're looking at Henne's career objectively, please show me one big win. I don't see it... oh yeah, the last game of his college career? It took that long? Are we seriously talking about a second-round draft pick?
Now, who is making these draft picks? Well if it isn't Bill Parcells himself. People are in awe of his career, and rightly so. He is one of the more well respected coaches in NFL history, but he's also respected as having an elite eye for talent.
That same eye for talent who passed up on the most legit left tacke prospect in the history of the Draft in Orlando Pace with the No. 1 pick in 1997, trading the pick to the Rams for third-, fourth-, and seventh-round draft picks. Who did he take when he traded down? James Farrior, who was a bust with the Jets, but was solid for the Steelers later in his career.
Who did Parcells take with those mid-round picks he acquired in that genius trade? Wideout Dedric Ward and running back Leon Johnson. Nice move, Bill.
Not only did he pass up on Pace, but he traded the No. 6 pick to Seattle, passing up on Walter Jones, another future Hall of Famer. This guy really knows his left tackles.
OK, so the argument here is that the Jets still had Jumbo Elliot, but Elliot was 32. He made the Pro Bowl just once in his career.
Pace was an elite talent. No... Pace wasn't elite; he was an out-of-this-world prospect. The argument can be made he is the best left tackle prospect ever. Dick Vermeil made off with grand larceny in that trade, and eventually won a Super Bowl with Pace blocking the blind side.
It was the worst trade the in the history of the Draft. Mike Ditka might have given up his entire draft for Ricky Williams, but passing up on Pace was an even bigger mistake. What would the Jets' future had been if they had taken Pace No. 1?
Let's look at Parcells' track record in his stint in Dallas from 2003-2006.
2003: Terence Newman is an elite cornerback in this league. Great pick at No. 5. Center Al Johnson has been an average player his whole career, so that second-round pick investment isn't impressive. Jason Witten was a great third-round selection. Brady James has been a nice surprise and was a fourth-round choice.
By far his best draft in Dallas.
2004: He traded up for Julius Jones. Yuck. Jacob Rogers in the second round was a complete bust. The two best picks of this draft were Patrick Crayton and Jacques Reeves as seventh-rounders.
2005: DeMarcus Ware was a very solid first-round pick, but Marcus Spears hasn't been very impressive in his career. Kevin Burnett hasn't ever done much and he was a second-rounder. Marion Barber and Chris Canty turned out to be great selections considering their value in the fourth round.
2006: Bobby Carpenter: Bust so far. Anthony Fasano: Bust so far, but we'll see if he does anything now that Parcells traded for him in Miami. Dallas got absolutely nothing out of this draft.
So, when you really break it down, Parcells has just a slightly above average eye for talent, and certainly nothing special on the level of an Ozzie Newsome, A.J. Smith, Scott Pioli or Bill Polian. You can even make the argument that Jerry Reese has every idea what he is doing as well though with limited experience.
I'm just not sold on Miami's draft or their future. Don't buy into the consensus that they drastically improved their offense with this draft. Don't buy into the consensus that Parcells is going to work his magic - or that any magic is actually there.
Posted April 26, 2008
NFL Draft X-Factors:
There are a lot of factors no one is talking about that can really shake up the draft, but it has nothing to do with the players actually in the draft. Here are my 2008 NFL Draft X-Factors, which opens the door to much unforgotten variables into this first round equation:
1. Derrick Burgess, DE, Oakland
The Raiders need speed off the edge? Anyone forgetting about this player? He isn't that old and will be 30 years of age, so there are a few more miles on this engine before Derrick is going to call it quits. He had eight sacks in 14 games last year for Oakland (on a defense without DeAngelo Hall and Tommy Kelly).
Is Burgess an elite right defensive end? No, but he does fill a need on the right side and he is too small to play on the left.
Why is Burgess an X-Factor? If the Rams take Chris Long at No. 2 as projected, then Vernon Gholston will fall to the Raiders. He is a better fit on the right side because of his speed, but as I've already mentioned, Burgess is at this position.
It certainly sets up for the Raiders to take Darren McFadden, filling a need as a home run threat at running back, not that I'd draft him over Sedrick Ellis.
2. Cam Cameron, Offensive Coordinator, Baltimore
"With the ninth pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Ted Ginn..." and every jaw dropped of every football fan in the world.
So why did Cam Cameron pass on Quinn? He didn't like his inconsistent accuracy and he didn't have the snappy release he preferred. John Beck was extremely accurate and had a very quick release. So Cameron showed the world what he loved in a quarterback for his offense.
What makes Cameron an X-Factor? The Ravens need a quarterback in case you weren't aware. Will the Ravens pass up on Matt Ryan? He only threw for 60.5 percent of his passes in his senior year and displayed inconsistent accuracy his entire career.
Is he the front runner at No. 8? Without a doubt, but I think Brian Brohm and John David Booty could potentially get attention from Cameron because they would remind him of John Beck. Efficient, precision passers who rely on timing and accuracy describe these two quarterbacks.
If Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's name is called instead of Ryan's at No. 8, you will know exactly why.
Question is, how much will Ozzie Newsome listen to Cameron? What about John Harabaugh? I'm sure it will be a collaborative effort, but Cameron should have some amount of say in this matter.
3. Will Kansas City draft Sedrick Ellis?
Hypotethically, let's say Ellis isn't drafted by the Chiefs at 5. We have three 3-4 defenses in a row in the New York Jets, New England, and Baltimore (and they all have their nose tackle need filled) Neither of those three teams will seriously consider Ellis.
Why is KC-Ellis an X-Factor? The Cincinnati Bengals could really use Ellis, and it creates an absolute trading war between the Saints and Bengals to move up to get this talent. The Patriots are looking to move down from No. 7; view my Draft Day Trade Projections for what I think will happen if Ellis slips past Kansas City.
5. Usama Young, Cornerback, New Orleans
He was drafted at No. 66 in the third round by the Saints last year, and I just don't think that Jim Haslett will all of a sudden forget a valuable investment like this into a high third-round pick.
Young played really well at nickel last year for Orleans, registering 24 solo tackles, and he was productive on special teams as well.
Keep in mind, this draft is also very deep in terms of cover corners, and the Saints could address a bigger need at No. 10 including three technique (Kentwan Balmer), linebacker (Keith Rivers), or safety (Kenny Phillips).
6. Ryan Harris, Tackle, Denver
Many had Ryan Harris rated as a top-five tackle in last year's draft. Denver invested a third-rounder into Harris, and they did it because he was a great fit for their zone-blocking scheme.
Yet, all of a sudeen they are likely to draft another left tackle in Chris Williams or Ryan Clady? It makes no sense. Harris hasn't had a chance to prove himself. He was injured at the start of the season, and it's tough for a rookie to just come into this zone-blocking system and beat out a veteran like Matt Lepsis.
I don't think the Denver Broncos will draft a tackle here (other than Albert for his versatility), and my reason is Harris' potential.
More of Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog entries.
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Posted Jan. 5, 2008
2009 NFL Draft has an Uncanny Center Focus
When it comes to NFL fans fantasizing about their team putting together a highly successful NFL Draft class to lead their team to the Super Bowl the following season (okay, so Giant fans already know what this is like), an "ugly" center probably is usually not at the top of the NFL Draft wish list.
Let’s face it - center is not a "sexy" position. I mean, we do not exactly see the position highlighted on Total Access or SportsCenter. We do not have availability to offensive line statistics coming out of college. Center is not a position thought to have as big of an impact as tackle or guard, which to an extent is true.
Interior offensive linemen get overlooked in nearly every game preview because it just is not a fun position to talk about.
Keyshawn Johnson might say something like, "You know, Matt Birk is really big and strong... reminds me of my days at USC..." then he goes on to discuss why he hates Bill Parcells and does not respect big receivers in the league.
It is not a highly coveted position, but 2009 has one of the best center classes the NFL Draft has ever seen. I am projecting Alex Mack as THE BEST center prospect since Bruce Matthews in the 1983 NFL Draft. I am not saying he is as good as Matthews as a Hall of Famer, just they match up talent-wise in foresight.
Max Unger from Oregon brings great versatility to the table with athleticism and intelligence to boot. Many consider Mack and Unger to be first-round projections.
Arkansas product Jonathan Luigs has the prototypical center build and a nasty demeanor with great strength. Some Draftniks feel like Eric Wood, Antoine Caldwell, and A.Q. Shipley have sleeper potential on D-Day.
When you reflect on the NFL Draft, you cannot find many classes with three to four projected starters. The last time two or more centers were taken in the first round was 26 years ago in 1983 (Bruce Matthews, Dave Rimington, Dan Mosebar). I would say this is the best center class by far since then.
This center class is special and deserves the recognition they are not getting among Draftniks.
Among teams looking for a starting center in the first two rounds could be Minnesota (Birk is a free agent), Buffalo, Kansas City, Atlanta, Washington, Arizona, and Baltimore (Jason Brown is a free agent).
Posted Jan. 3, 2008
Josh Freeman Declares for the 2009 NFL Draft
A surprising announcement was made two days ago when Kansas State signal caller Josh Freeman declared for the 2009 NFL Draft. The NFL Advisory Committee told him he would likely be a high second-round pick. The KSU program is going to go through a coaching change, but was this the best decision for Freeman?
It remains to be seen. I have a hard time seeing a 6-6, 250-pound quarterback with a big arm fall in the NFL Draft.
I however, would not take Freeman in the first round. He is not a very polished quarterback who should take a few years to develop. He is still very raw and does not show much maturity for a pocket passer. Then again, I did say Joe Flacco would take one or two years to develop. So much for that prediction.
I guess what I am getting at is I think Freeman could end up missing out on millions. A high second-round pick earns about a million dollars a season. Freeman could also end up rising on some teams' draft board like Flacco, who made bank at five years, $30 million with Baltimore.
It would not shock me to see some team trade up for or draft Freeman in the first round. Tampa Bay is desperate for a franchise quarterback. Maybe Detroit plans to go with Freeman with their second first round pick, allowing them to take an Andre Smith or Michael Oher at No. 1.
I would be somewhat shocked if the NFL teams saw Freeman as a project quarterback and looked past him in the first two rounds.
If I were Freeman, I might return to school for my senior season. I have the talent you cannot take away from me. I am not Brian Brohm or Colt Brennan with below-average arm strength. I have the potential to go in the top five and make some serious money.
This is certainly a gamble, but Freeman would grow more as a decision-maker and leader. However, he also risks injury and potentially having a disappointing season.
Either way, it is not a bad decision.
What grade do I have on Freeman? I would not draft him in the first two rounds. He never showed me much consistency, and I was not impressed with one of the three games I saw of Kansas State's this year. Looking at box scores, he only dominated against lesser competition, and only stepped up against Texas A&M. I saw too many errors in decision-making and reading defenses to give him a second-round grade. He has a tendency to stare down receivers, and like many underclassmen he does not throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open. He does a good job of not forcing throws, but the accuracy is far from where I want it to be.
High upside? Absolutely, but I would go back to school to work on accuracy and leadership, and take a chance on that top-five money in 2010.
Posted Jan. 1, 2008
Nate Davis Should Declare for the 2009 NFL Draft
Should I stay or should I go now?
It rarely happens in college football, but sometimes junior quarterbacks make the mistake of staying in school for their senior season. Omar Jacobs, Matt Leinart, Colt Brennan, and Brian Brohm all could have made more money had they declared for the NFL Draft as juniors. We have another rare occurrence.
If Nate Davis does not declare for the 2009 NFL Draft, he needs to be subject to a CAT scan. Matt Stafford might be the only projected starter at the quarterback in the NFL Draft if Sam Bradford decides to stay in Norman for his junior season. In a league where quarterback is regarded as the most valuable position and in high demand, your stock goes up in the NFL Draft simply because you take a snap.
If Stafford is the only junior to declare (besides Davis) there will be multiple teams in the NFL Draft prepared to spend a second-round pick on Davis - maybe even a first-round pick. How can you pass that up when you consider Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy (hypothetically), stay for their senior season, then consider the other juniors who could declare for the 2010 NFL Draft? There is much more competition for Davis in 2010.
Davis is a likely second-round pick in 2009, but could take a drastic fall in 2010. Maybe he suffers a huge injury. Maybe the scouts second guess themselves like they did with Jacobs, Brohm and Brennan. Maybe the other quarterbacks have phenomenal senior seasons.
Monetarily, this is a no-brainer.
What are my thoughts on Davis? I wouldn't draft him in the first two rounds. Some people like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay feel like Davis has first-round talent. Davis isn't very big, he has average arm strength from what I can see, and plays in a shotgun offense.
Everyone glorifies the college game and talks about how great it is for the time you are there. Maybe so, but tell the quarterbacks who never had much of a professional career that staying for your senior year is worth passing up a contract worth in the neighborhood of three to four million dollars.
Posted Dec. 26, 2008
Why Matt Stafford is now my No. 1 player
Before the season, you would be hard pressed to find someone more hard on Matt Stafford than I. Most people praised Matt and anointed him as the No. 1 pick in the Draft despite the fact that he never threw for 300 yards in a game in his career. I had a major problem with this because Stafford never showed me consistency or production.
This year, after watching four of his games and taping two, I have come around to the Stafford bandwagon. His production has gone up in a tough defensive conference. He threw for more than 250 yards in seven games this year, and eclipsed 300 yards in three games. He improved his touchdown-to-interception ratio to 2.4:1.
You can look at Stafford and still say he is inaccurate and too much of a gunslinger throwing the ball into double coverage too often, but if you do that, you are not looking at what is being asked of Stafford.
I discovered an intriguing trend in Georgia's offensive design: It calls for virtually no short to intermediate routes in the passing game. Think Mike Martz with less shotgun. Stafford's only options downfield are into coverage, and that is the reason for so many of his interceptions. Once Stafford gets into a more traditional West Coast offense in the NFL, his completion percentage will go up and he will have easier options to throw the ball.
I learned this lesson because I made a huge mistake on Matt Ryan. I said Ryan did not deserve to go in the top five because of his issues with accuracy and decision making. Ryan made the excuse that he was asked to be an aggressive passer, but I was not buying it. After all, how am I supposed to know what the coaches are telling Ryan? He could just be another player making another excuse (maybe he got advice from Tony Romo).
Maybe I should have done more research in Ryan's options regarding routes and checkdowns, but I did not, and I vowed to never make that mistake again.
I am not saying Stafford is the No. 1 player on my board or the No. 1 quarterback, surpassing Sam Bradford, just because I messed up on Ryan. I just believe Stafford's arm strength is too elite to pass up and he has a lot of experience in a difficult offense to operate in the SEC. Sure, I would prefer better statistics, but there are plenty of college quarterbacks without a chance in the NFL who have great numbers.
So what are my thoughts now on Bradford? I do not see him committing because he is a sophomore, but considering the money top 10 picks garner, it would be hard to pass up. I certainly would go into the draft if I were Bradford.
If Bradford does declare, St. Louis, Kansas City, and Seattle might take a chance on him in the top eight. There are rumors of Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck being released. San Francisco might consider trading up.
I will also say I do not see any chance Bradford goes before Stafford. Bradford is getting all of the hype because he won the Heisman. I still think he is worthy of a top five pick because his accuracy and decision making is unparalled in college football, but his arm strength is just above average, and his upside does not come close to Stafford's. That is why JaMarcus Russell was chosen over Brady Quinn, and that is why Stafford will go ahead of Bradford on Draft Day.
Posted Dec. 1, 2008
College Football Playoff System
Barack Obama won the 2008 Presidential election by the largest margin in the past 20 years. Seven percent and nine million votes was the difference, but how did he do it?
Obama is a man of the people, especially college football fans advocating for a playoff system. There are more than nine million college football fans in this country wanting a playoff, so my only conclusion is going on ESPN saying he wants to implement a playoff system won him the Presidency - not that choosing a moose killing hockey mom who thinks dinosaurs co-existed with humans as your Vice President would lose you the election...
Anyway, it is not that easy. There are many problems associated with making a collegiate playoff system: cost for fans of these teams wanting to see the playoff games and trying to make the system as fair as possible.
I might not be running for the Presidency in 2012 on the WalterFootball.com party ticket (then again if the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska can be the heartbeat away from the Presidency six years later), but I do have a well thought-out playoff system taking care of a lot of problems along the way.
Here are a few elements you must understand before I disclose my system to you:
1. There is no such thing as a PERFECT PLAYOFF. Every playoff can be criticized. Nothing is perfect. Playoffs can be too long. Take a look at the NBA. Some teams last year got in with losing records and the playoffs drag on over a two-month period. More than half the league gets in the playoffs. It's a joke. In the NCAA Basketball tournament, 65 teams get in, but a No. 9-16 seed has never won the dance and never will because they lack the talent and depth. I think having one too many rounds is detrimental to the other 32 teams in the tournament because they are more tired than they should be later in the tournament.
So, every time you criticize my playoff and find a weakness, realize that your expectation of a perfect system doesn't exist. My playoff system has flaws, just like any other, but I do think it is one of the best presented.
2. Lines must be drawn on how many teams get in, in every playoff. Every year we hear the debating on who got left out of the NCAA basketball tourney, but quite frankly they do not matter because those teams have no chance of winning the dance anyway. If we had a four-team playoff now in college football, people would be debating about who did not get in. Then they make it an eight-team playoff, and it still is not good enough. People would then say, "Why can't we make it one round longer?" You have to draw the line somewhere, or you get a playoff that is too long. There will be teams shunned in a college football playoff, but you will have to get over this and accept it.
We cannot have too long of a playoff in college football for a few reasons. One, it would cost too much money for the fans supporting these programs to afford the tickets and travelling expenses associated with the games. Two, the meaning of the regular season would be diluted. No one cared last year in basketball when No. 1 Memphis played No. 2 Tennessee because we all knew they would be top seeds in the dance. I believe it is important to keep the regular season relevant. Three, the season cannot be too long because of the senior class. Some players in the senior class go onto the NFL and must compete in the Senior Bowl and Pro Days. If the playoff is too long then these players will be too exhausted for the Senior Bowl and the NFL season.
On to my playoff system.
This is a pretty simple premise with a few very important changes to the regular season and conference championships. This is an eight-team playoff. All of the big bowl games are done away with: Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, etc. The NCAA can find a way to sponsor these games somehow and just rename each with the sponsor's name. For example, one game would be called the Tostito's Bowl. This would probably generate more money with the brand name associated with the game as opposed to the Fiesta Bowl.
How are these eight teams voted in? The BCS computer system is used, and the Harris and USA Today polls are thrown out. Coaches have to focus on their team and conference only and should not be included in the BCS system. Instead, a formula is used with the BCS and the AP writers. I think the AP is comprised of a bunch of idiots, but we need some human subjective reasoning for this decision.
Changes to regular season? Yes. I think it is completely stupid how a team like USC gets three bye weeks in their regular season. It is not fair to other teams who only have one or two bye weeks. Instead, there is a set amount of games and bye weeks. Every team plays 12 regular season games starting in the last weekend of August, and each team is granted one bye week to use.
Also, conference championships are done away with. They are pretty pointless - except for the money they generate, but as fans, no one complains about these money makers. It is not fair that SEC and Big XII teams have to play an extra game, but the Pac 10 and Big Ten does not. Sometimes it is not fair to USC, who does not get an opportunity to improve their standing in a conference championship. To make this more conforming, all conference championships are done away with.
After the regular season is completed, there is an off week for all teams to rest, practice, and scout their opponents in the playoff or bowl games (if they are not selected to a playoff, then they play in a bowl in December).
There is a monetary issue with playoffs. Fans cannot afford to travel from destination to destination, especially with the economy going through the tubes. In this eight-team playoff, the first two rounds are home games. The higher seed gets the home game. The championship is played at a neutral location. This way, most fans do not have to pay for traveling expenses. Sure, there will be some fans from the visiting team, but this is better than having to travel from neutral location to neutral location.
So, there you have it. Nothing earth shattering, but it is more detailed than most systems presented. I know most of you would probably want 16 teams, but keep in mind an extra four games for the senior class would be detrimental to their rookie NFL seasons (one game makes a big difference), might not be enough rest prior to the Senior Bowl, and decrease the importance of the regular season.
Please e-mail with your questions and/or comments!
Posted Nov. 11, 2008
2009 NFL Draft: Junior Quarterbacks to Stay in School
In my latest 2009 NFL Mock Draft update, I discussed my change of thought in Matt Stafford being a top 3-5 draft pick. Part of the reason behind this is that I do not believe any other underclassmen will declare. We all know the senior quarterback class is a disaster. You would have to go back to the 2000 NFL Draft to find a quarterback class this bad. The crown jewel was Chad Pennington, but after him was Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman, Tee Martin, etc. Granted, Marc Bulger and Tom Brady turned out to be pretty good, but in foresight they were not highly regarded prospects.
Let me explain why I do not see Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, Colt Mccoy, Josh Freeman, or Mark Sanchez declaring for the 2009 NFL Draft:
Posted Nov. 5, 2008
2009 NFL Draft: Matt Stafford - a Top-Five NFL Draft Pick?
Matt Stafford came into the 2008 season with the Dark Knight-esque hype. He was the second coming of Carson Palmer and JaMarcus Russell with his jaw-dropping arm strength. The Georgia Bulldogs finished the 2007 season 11-2 with a dominating Sugar Bowl victory. Many thought they were the best team in the country even after LSU's championship victory.
I was not sold on Stafford. I saw a quarterback on game film with mediocre accuracy and decision-making. I did not see a great leader or any signs of urgency from him to win a game.
In only four games did Stafford complete more than 61 percent of his passes. He only averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt (YPA). His touchdown to interception ratio was 19:10 - not impressive. He ranked 61st in the country for pass attempts, relying on the Georgia defense and Knowshon Moreno to win games for him.
I knew how high his potential was; I just wanted him to step up his game and play like a quarterback worthy of a No. 1 pick.
Well, from time to time, every draftnik changes his mind.
I am now a believer that Matt Stafford is a top-five pick next April in the 2009 NFL Draft. Let me go over the reasons to explain myself:
1. Through his first eight games in 2007, Stafford averaged 6.06 YPA. This season, he has raised that to 8.5 YPA. He is making more plays in the passing game and being more of a reason for Georgia winning games. Georgia is ranked 39th in the country in rushing offense. Stafford has led this team to some big wins over South Carolina, Arizona State, Vanderbilt and LSU.
2. Franchise quarterbacks are viewed as extremely valuable on Draft Day, especially by new coaching regimes. If Joe Flacco out of Delaware is traded up for in the first round, then I cannot deny that some team is going to take Stafford in the top five, but more likely the top three picks. Despite Stafford's weaknesses, in the end I believe they will be overlooked because of his extremely high upside and ...
3. ...the lack of quarterback talent in the 2009 NFL Draft. There is no one in the senior class worth mentioning. I currently do not have a grade on any senior higher than the fourth round. It's pathetic.
I do not see Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Josh Freeman or Mark Sanchez declaring for 2009. I will blog about that soon. With no projected starter outside of Stafford in 2008, his draft value becomes even higher.
4. More teams than usual drafting high are in need of a franchise quarterback. In the 2008 NFL Draft, only Baltimore and Atlanta were desperately lacking a future at the position. Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco have nothing at quarterback. Seattle might even consider drafting Stafford with Matt Hasselbeck turning 34 soon. With three definite teams desperate for a franchise signal caller that will be drafting in the top six, Stafford is highly unlikely to fall. Also, the fact that there are no other quarterbacks in this draft, as I previously mentioned, means that Stafford's value goes up even more. It is a matter of supply and demand. There is a low supply of quarterbacks, and a very strong demand for franchise signal callers.
The college football insiders are saying that Stafford is a sure thing to bolt for the draft this year so there goes my theory of him staying for his senior year like Brady Quinn and Matt Leinart.
I know he just had a three-interception performance against Florida, but I do not think this will affect his stock much for reasons previously stated.
This does not have anything to do really with my opinion or grade on Stafford. Granted, I grade him higher than I did in the preseason because he has been more productive, but I still want to see a monster game (300-plus yards, three-plus touchdowns, one or less interceptions) and more urgency with his leadership like Matt Ryan at B.C.
Currently, I am giving Stafford my first-round/4-star grade.
Posted July 29, 2008
2008 NFL Draft: My No. 1 Rookie Sleeper:
"With the 252nd pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints select Marques Colston, wide receiver, Hofstra," and one of the biggest NFL Draft steals of all time was born. He was a seventh-round pick with a 4.55 40 time from a very small school.
In the 2008 NFL Draft, teams sought out for the next small-school wideout stud. The Bengals took Coastal Carolina product Jerome Simpson in the second round. Tampa Bay snagged the speedy Dexter Jackson out of Appalachian State in the second. Richmond receiver Arman Schields was taken by the Raiders in the fourth.
When I evaluate a player, games are 95 percent of my evaluation. Anyone who talks about 40 times a lot and changes up their big board five or six times during the Combine/Pro Day season doesn't put much emphasis on the actual games. You'd think that's the way to go, but in today's world, a lot of momentum is built up after the actual season. It's why four of the top five picks didn't attend the Senior Bowl, for fear of falling down draft boards with one bad week.
That's pretty much what happened with my sleeper.
Michigan State product Devin Thomas was said to be the No. 1 receiver in the draft if you polled the majority of draftniks. He had 1,260 yards and eight touchdowns in 2007. In 2006, he had 90 yards and one score. He only had one good season.
And by now, you're sick of reading this article without knowing who my No. 1 sleeper in the 2008 NFL Draft. Well, it's none other than Kentucky wideout Steve Johnson.
Johnson is dubbed an unathletic, one-year wonder as the reason why he fell to pick No. 224 in the 2008 Draft.
Why is he unathletic? People point to 40 times of 4.59 and 4.63 at the combine. Remember what I said about people who rave about 40s; they cannot evaluate game speed, so they have to rely on measurements.
"One-year wonder" is the label Johnson is dubbed as. He had 1,052 yards and 13 touchdowns in the toughest conference in the country. In 2006, he had 159 yards and one score. If you're going to blame Johnson for falling to the seventh because he was a "one-year wonder," then please also say Thomas should have been a fifth-round pick.
Johnson is a big receiver at 6-2, 210, with good muscle definition. He has very underrated speed from the game film I taped of him. He truly made some plays that just shocked me, and you will those in a second.
Johnson was Andre Woodson's No. 1 target last year after Keenan Burton went down with an injury, and he sure did deliver. He caught the game-winning pass against Louisville. He put up 111 yards on seven catches in a road game versus Arkansas. He made a few very critical plays on third down. He got better as the season went along. Versus No. 1 LSU, he put up 134 yards and the game-winning touchdown on just seven catches. Next week, he dominated Florida for 128 yards. In the final four games of the season, he accumulated 386 yards and five touchdowns. He finished his career very strong, he improved his route running, and he gained a ton of confidence.
On to the aforementioned game tape:
Play No. 1: This play displays how Johnson maximizes the yardage in the open field, which is the staple of the West Coast offense. (No. 13 at top of screen at flanker) Dig route: Notice after the catch, the amazing juke, then the automatic acceleration up the field. He avoided tackles and maximized the play.
Starting at 1:39 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=2vfJg3kIlBg
Play No. 2: To get 13 touchdowns, you have to be a pretty good red-zone receiver. Fade route; notice how Johnson catches the ball away from his body at the highest point possible, secures the ball, gets a foot inbounds, and displays those excellent ball skills. This play takes a lot of talent to make. Johnson uses his 6-2 frame to his advantage over the defensive back, and makes it look easy.
Starting at 4:36 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=C7rcH_VIPMA&feature=related
Play No. 3: Again, another play displaying his great ball skills. He gains a lot of separation on the smash route, and notice once again he makes the catch away from his body. He gained a solid eight yards after the catch, maximizing the play.
Starting at 4:46 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=2MhoCu28Uys&feature=related
Play No. 4: Same game versus LSU, but this is the game-winner. Goal line, sluggo route (slant n' go), double move. He leaves the corner stumbling in his jock as he hauls in the decisive grab. I love how Johnson sells the slant, then makes a hard cut. It's simply beautiful work and he reaps the reward with the touchdown. Again, notice the soft hands and catch made away from his body. This is great route running and clutch-play ability.
Starting at 3:07 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=D-VzpS41y0I&feature=related
Play #5: This was one of the most explosive plays I saw any receiver make out of the 2008 NFL Draft class. Bubble screen; watch Johnson make the catch then explode past the entire Florida State defense. Just an amazing play to say the least. Forty time? Take the 4.63 seconds. I love this play. In the open field, Johnson maximizes the yardage of the play once again at 5:39, setting up Myron Rolle for a very big touchdown. This is a game-breaking play, and it's why I love Johnson's fit in a West Coast offense.
Starting at 5:35 - http://youtube.com/watch?v=3wTSX9xwg2s&feature=related
If you think it's all about a 40 time, then during every game next season, get out a stopwatch. Time every player on the field, forget about breaking tackles, making the catch, or running routes being a part of the game... just time everyone. I'd like to see how far you get with that. I watch game tape, and on game tapel Steve Johnson was a player I gave a second-round draft grade. He is a very complete receiver who has great ball skills, clutch-catch ability and improving route running. He's a good redzone target who maximizes the yardage of the play.
I'm not expecting Steve Johnson to put up 900-1,000 yards next year, yet I also wouldn't be shocked if he beat out James Hardy for the No. 2 job by season's end. He will make an immediate contribution for the Bills somehow. About 450-600 yards is what I'm guessing. Nothing spectacular, but over time we are going to look back and think how a player as talented as Johnson fell to pick 224.
Once again, this is the NFL Draft. It's never going to be perfect. We are going to have busts in the top 10 and steals on Day 2. But for me, the Bills made highway robbery grabbing Steve Johnson in the seventh round.
Posted July 28, 2008
2008 NFL Draft Rookie Sleepers:
First-round picks aren't locks to become franchise players. It's easy to talk about which players are going to make instant impacts, but that's not what I'm doing in this article. Don't get me wrong; I'm not expecting instant success with most of these, but down the road they're the most likely to produce and have the talent to be consistent starters (or stars) in the NFL.
Dre Moore, DT, Buccaneers
Not many defensive tackles are 6-3, 305, and run a sub 4.9. Many said that Moore was lazy during games, but from what I watched, Moore was a consistent force. He was very productive, accumulating 62 tackles, 8.5 for loss, and six sacks. Glenn Dorsey had 69 tackles last season and seven sacks, yet it is interesting Moore is criticized as "lazy."
Tampa moved up in the fourth round to draft him to be the future three-technique, the position made famous by future Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. Moore has the measurables of Sapp, but can he play up to them? Surrounded by a wealth of young talent on the Bucs defense, if Moore can work hard off the field, he will be an extremely productive player.
Carl Nicks, OL, Saints
I was shocked Nicks fell this far in the draft, but when you listened to Charlie Casserly's comments on the NFL Network regarding Nicks, I guess we should have listened a little harder. He mentioned how Nicks has had serious character issues, which is why he dropped to the fifth round. That said, he was a first-round talent and should be an instant impact player on the Saints offensive line at guard or tackle. He can play nearly every position, as he absolutely dominated in his 2007 season and made the Senior Bowl look easy.
Again, he's got some attitude issues, but I have to go with the high upside if I'm picking a sleeper.
Ahtyba Rubin, NT, Browns
I was able to watch Iowa State only twice last year, but Ahtyba Rubin stood out to me dominating in the running game. He's not agile, and he's a bad "chase tackler," but he is a perfect fit as a zero-technique in the 3-4 (also known as nose tackle). He is going to be an anchor for Cleveland and command double teams. Rubin was very impressive at the Senior Bowl and showed more flexibility than I had anticipated. With the nose tackle position being a critical part of the 3-4, Cleveland got a steal late in the draft.
Andre Woodson, QB, Giants
Andre Woodson was the 13th player on my big board - and not for quarterbacks. He was my 13th best player in the draft and No. 2 quarterback. I don't care if he fell to the sixth round. I simply point my finger at Mel Kiper and the hype machine that got everyone down on Woodson for really no particular reason other than his release. I've never seen one player fall in the draft so far for one technical flaw. It's ridiculous.
Woodson has an extremely strong arm, great deep-ball accuracy, outstanding footwork, and good understanding of pass protection schemes and audibles, but most importantly, he has elite poise. He will stand in the pocket, take a big hit and get the throw off (see game-winning touchdown vs. LSU). When the game is on the line, time and time again Woodson looks like the calmest player on the field. He set the NCAA record for pass attempts without an interception at 325. He is a great decision-maker and was highly productive at Kentucky despite a pourous offensive line. Chad Henne, on the other hand was 1-3 in bowl games, never beat Ohio State, and had Jake Long as his left tackle for four years - yet somehow he gets drafted in the second round.
I had Woodson as my No. 2 quarterback, and Walt had him as his No. 1 quarterback. Woodson definitely has the WalterFootball.com stamp of approval.
Get back to me when the Giants deal Woodson for a first-rounder in 3-4 years in a Matt Schuab-like trade.
Peyton Hillis, FB, Broncos
Normally you don't see fullbacks on "sleeper" lists, but I loved this draft pick in the seventh round. Peyton Hillis is a great receiver out of the backfield and an extremely solid blocker. He's versatile and can make plays on third down. Great pick by Denver; I feel like they got a 12-year starter at the fullback position.
Kory Lichtensteiger, C, Broncos
Another solid second-day pick by the Broncos. Kory Lichtensteiger is tough, smart and strong. He should excel in the zone-blocking scheme. Centers don't look pretty, but they get the job done.
Jonathan Goff, ILB, Giants
One of the most fun players I broke down on film last year was Jonathan Goff. He was simply the leader on Vanderbilt's defense. He's fast and strong, and graded very high in my area for chase tackles, which is particularly important for inside linebackers to get to the edge and make plays. I like his athleticism in the middle of the defense, and in time he should take over for Antonio Pierce.
Picks like these are just one of the reasons why Jerry Reese has already cemented himself as one of the five best general managers in the NFL.
Jacob Tamme, Colts
It was pretty obvious to me, months before the draft, what the ideal destination for Jacob Tamme was: Playing in the slot with Peyton Manning. It's a match made in heaven. Tamme isn't explosive, but he did consistently time in the 4.5s. No doubt in my mind, between tight ends and receivers, Tamme had the best hands of any player in the 2008 NFL Draft. He's great when the ball is in the air and he regularly makes circus catches. He will very quickly become a favorite of Manning's. I'm not saying he is better than Dallas Clark, but he certainly has that kind of potential and he will live up to it.
Tomorrow I will break down my undoubtably No. 1 2008 NFL Draft sleeper, complete with YouTube video analysis highlights.
Posted May 23, 2008
The Dolphins' Future Bleak With Tuna's Track Record:
The most talked about team during the draft, and rightfully so, is the one with the No. 1 overall pick. This year it belonged to the Miami Dolphins, to let those of you know who haven't watched SportsCenter in the past five months.
The consensus is Miami made the right pick at No. 1 with Jake Long to solidify the offensive line. The consensus is Miami needed a quarterback judging by John Beck's ineptitude last season, after many thought Brady Quinn shouldn't have been passed up on in the 2007 Draft. The consensus is Bill Parcells' track record of talent is great and he is sure to make Miami a true contender in a few seasons.
I don't care what the consensus is. There are three points that are consensus in my book:
1. Miami is an extremely bad football team and it will take at least 3-4 seasons for them to get back to the playoffs.
2. You don't draft an average athlete with the first-overall pick (other than a quarterback), and that's exactly what Miami did with Jake Long.
3. Bill Parcells is extremely overrated when it comes to his eye for talent. He is simply just above average in this area. I don't go by opinion, but by his track record (I will get to that later).
Yeah, I was 99.99 percent sure Chris Long would be the No. 1 pick, and if I had to do my evaluation all over again prior to the Jake Long signing, I'd still have Chris as my No. 1 selection.
I heard many talk about the need for a left tackle. The need for leadership. The need for a great offense.
I know that the greatest passing attack (and possibly offense) in NFL history, just lost the Super Bowl. I know that you simply don't get better leadership than Chris Long, so Jake doesn't have an edge here. I know that Vernon Carey is a solid run blocker.
I think it's appropriate to call Miami possibly the worst defense in the NFL on paper, and we all should know by now that defense does win championships. Quentin Moses isn't going to do anything for this team down the road. Are we seriously talking about the same player who was cut by elite powerhouses in his rookie season like the Raiders and Cardinals?
So will Jake Long help the running game and offense as a whole improve? Yeah he will, but I also know that because of Tony Mandarich it's important to be a great athlete at left tackle, and Long is far from a great athlete with sluggish hips and feet. Don't be impressed when they showed highlights of him blocking the likes of James Lauriniaitis, SirDarean Adams, and a no-name from Northwestern on ESPN.
Impressive against Derrick Harvey? Absolutely, but they didn't go against each other much. Impressive against Vernon Gholston? Hardly - he got beat many times off the edge other than that one sack, and Gholston had a good game against the run.
The jury will be out on Long for a while. I don't like the pick, and Miami will regret passing up on Chris Long for many years. You simply win games getting pressure on the quarterback.
On to the even more questionable pick of Chad Henne in the second round: I'm not Dolphin-hating here; as you know I've never been a Henne fan.
He is called a great leader, but why? He had the best offense around him at Michigan for a few years (and arguably the best over a 4-year career), so who did he beat that was so great? Florida had an average defense last year, and he still threw two interceptions in that game still displaying questionable decision-making.
I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for the Ohio State game since he was injured, but let's go back to his sophomore and junior season with all that talent around him. Solid game against Ohio State, but he never defeated the Buckeyes in his career. If you're dubbed a "great leader" shouldn't you be able to win a big game or two in your career? If Henne had all this talent around him, why didn't he ever beat his hated rival once? He was 1-3 in bowl games.
If you're looking at Henne's career objectively, please show me one big win. I don't see it... oh yeah, the last game of his college career? It took that long? Are we seriously talking about a second-round draft pick?
Now, who is making these draft picks? Well if it isn't Bill Parcells himself. People are in awe of his career, and rightly so. He is one of the more well respected coaches in NFL history, but he's also respected as having an elite eye for talent.
That same eye for talent who passed up on the most legit left tacke prospect in the history of the Draft in Orlando Pace with the No. 1 pick in 1997, trading the pick to the Rams for third-, fourth-, and seventh-round draft picks. Who did he take when he traded down? James Farrior, who was a bust with the Jets, but was solid for the Steelers later in his career.
Who did Parcells take with those mid-round picks he acquired in that genius trade? Wideout Dedric Ward and running back Leon Johnson. Nice move, Bill.
Not only did he pass up on Pace, but he traded the No. 6 pick to Seattle, passing up on Walter Jones, another future Hall of Famer. This guy really knows his left tackles.
OK, so the argument here is that the Jets still had Jumbo Elliot, but Elliot was 32. He made the Pro Bowl just once in his career.
Pace was an elite talent. No... Pace wasn't elite; he was an out-of-this-world prospect. The argument can be made he is the best left tackle prospect ever. Dick Vermeil made off with grand larceny in that trade, and eventually won a Super Bowl with Pace blocking the blind side.
It was the worst trade the in the history of the Draft. Mike Ditka might have given up his entire draft for Ricky Williams, but passing up on Pace was an even bigger mistake. What would the Jets' future had been if they had taken Pace No. 1?
Let's look at Parcells' track record in his stint in Dallas from 2003-2006.
2003: Terence Newman is an elite cornerback in this league. Great pick at No. 5. Center Al Johnson has been an average player his whole career, so that second-round pick investment isn't impressive. Jason Witten was a great third-round selection. Brady James has been a nice surprise and was a fourth-round choice.
By far his best draft in Dallas.
2004: He traded up for Julius Jones. Yuck. Jacob Rogers in the second round was a complete bust. The two best picks of this draft were Patrick Crayton and Jacques Reeves as seventh-rounders.
2005: DeMarcus Ware was a very solid first-round pick, but Marcus Spears hasn't been very impressive in his career. Kevin Burnett hasn't ever done much and he was a second-rounder. Marion Barber and Chris Canty turned out to be great selections considering their value in the fourth round.
2006: Bobby Carpenter: Bust so far. Anthony Fasano: Bust so far, but we'll see if he does anything now that Parcells traded for him in Miami. Dallas got absolutely nothing out of this draft.
So, when you really break it down, Parcells has just a slightly above average eye for talent, and certainly nothing special on the level of an Ozzie Newsome, A.J. Smith, Scott Pioli or Bill Polian. You can even make the argument that Jerry Reese has every idea what he is doing as well though with limited experience.
I'm just not sold on Miami's draft or their future. Don't buy into the consensus that they drastically improved their offense with this draft. Don't buy into the consensus that Parcells is going to work his magic - or that any magic is actually there.
Posted April 26, 2008
NFL Draft X-Factors:
There are a lot of factors no one is talking about that can really shake up the draft, but it has nothing to do with the players actually in the draft. Here are my 2008 NFL Draft X-Factors, which opens the door to much unforgotten variables into this first round equation:
1. Derrick Burgess, DE, Oakland
The Raiders need speed off the edge? Anyone forgetting about this player? He isn't that old and will be 30 years of age, so there are a few more miles on this engine before Derrick is going to call it quits. He had eight sacks in 14 games last year for Oakland (on a defense without DeAngelo Hall and Tommy Kelly).
Is Burgess an elite right defensive end? No, but he does fill a need on the right side and he is too small to play on the left.
Why is Burgess an X-Factor? If the Rams take Chris Long at No. 2 as projected, then Vernon Gholston will fall to the Raiders. He is a better fit on the right side because of his speed, but as I've already mentioned, Burgess is at this position.
It certainly sets up for the Raiders to take Darren McFadden, filling a need as a home run threat at running back, not that I'd draft him over Sedrick Ellis.
2. Cam Cameron, Offensive Coordinator, Baltimore
"With the ninth pick in the 2007 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Ted Ginn..." and every jaw dropped of every football fan in the world.
So why did Cam Cameron pass on Quinn? He didn't like his inconsistent accuracy and he didn't have the snappy release he preferred. John Beck was extremely accurate and had a very quick release. So Cameron showed the world what he loved in a quarterback for his offense.
What makes Cameron an X-Factor? The Ravens need a quarterback in case you weren't aware. Will the Ravens pass up on Matt Ryan? He only threw for 60.5 percent of his passes in his senior year and displayed inconsistent accuracy his entire career.
Is he the front runner at No. 8? Without a doubt, but I think Brian Brohm and John David Booty could potentially get attention from Cameron because they would remind him of John Beck. Efficient, precision passers who rely on timing and accuracy describe these two quarterbacks.
If Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's name is called instead of Ryan's at No. 8, you will know exactly why.
Question is, how much will Ozzie Newsome listen to Cameron? What about John Harabaugh? I'm sure it will be a collaborative effort, but Cameron should have some amount of say in this matter.
3. Will Kansas City draft Sedrick Ellis?
Hypotethically, let's say Ellis isn't drafted by the Chiefs at 5. We have three 3-4 defenses in a row in the New York Jets, New England, and Baltimore (and they all have their nose tackle need filled) Neither of those three teams will seriously consider Ellis.
Why is KC-Ellis an X-Factor? The Cincinnati Bengals could really use Ellis, and it creates an absolute trading war between the Saints and Bengals to move up to get this talent. The Patriots are looking to move down from No. 7; view my Draft Day Trade Projections for what I think will happen if Ellis slips past Kansas City.
5. Usama Young, Cornerback, New Orleans
He was drafted at No. 66 in the third round by the Saints last year, and I just don't think that Jim Haslett will all of a sudden forget a valuable investment like this into a high third-round pick.
Young played really well at nickel last year for Orleans, registering 24 solo tackles, and he was productive on special teams as well.
Keep in mind, this draft is also very deep in terms of cover corners, and the Saints could address a bigger need at No. 10 including three technique (Kentwan Balmer), linebacker (Keith Rivers), or safety (Kenny Phillips).
6. Ryan Harris, Tackle, Denver
Many had Ryan Harris rated as a top-five tackle in last year's draft. Denver invested a third-rounder into Harris, and they did it because he was a great fit for their zone-blocking scheme.
Yet, all of a sudeen they are likely to draft another left tackle in Chris Williams or Ryan Clady? It makes no sense. Harris hasn't had a chance to prove himself. He was injured at the start of the season, and it's tough for a rookie to just come into this zone-blocking system and beat out a veteran like Matt Lepsis.
I don't think the Denver Broncos will draft a tackle here (other than Albert for his versatility), and my reason is Harris' potential.
More of Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog entries.
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