@Mason Curry Thanks Mason. I'll try and take that into account on my next version. I wish Walter would expand the player database and add more rounds. Oh well, I guess the draft is like 10 months away. :)
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Posted March 12, 2010
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range
There is only one team in the 2010 NFL Draft that single-handedly controls where Gerald McCoy gets drafted by not even considering him - and that's Detroit.
The Lions could certainly take McCoy at No. 2 overall, but also in their draft range is offensive tackle Russell Okung and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. McCoy is the third-most likely pick to Detroit at No. 2.
With the Julius Peppers signing in Chicago and their acquisition of Corey Williams, the Lions are now more likely to go with Okung.
I wanted to see where McCoy could fall in the 2010 NFL Draft - so if we assume the Lions pass up on McCoy, let's then examine where else he could go.
Tampa Bay: Tampa will not select McCoy if they have the choice between him and Ndamukong Suh. Suh is the top player on their board and they had the last-ranked run defense in the NFL last season. I've heard from a source that it is extremely unlikely Tampa would pass on Suh if he is on the board.
Washington: First, I am highly confident Washington takes Jimmy Clausen. Secondly, Washington is running the 3-4 defense, and McCoy isn't the best fit at 5-technique. This team already spent a ton of money on Albert Haynesworth and they aren't going back to the defensive line spending top-five money.
Kansas City: This team has already invested a ton of money and picks into Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson, which means there is a zero-percent chance they take Gerald McCoy.
Seattle: I think Seattle would be most likely to take McCoy here, but what if they have Eric Berry rated more highly on their board? I think it is conceivable they pass up on McCoy for Berry - though not extremely likely.
Now, let's examine the next several teams. Oakland is locked into Bruce Campbell at No. 8. Buffalo is running the 3-4 defense and are highly unlikely to trade up for Gerald McCoy. Jacksonville is cash strapped and won't trade up. Denver, Miami, and San Francisco all run 3-4 defenses and are not going to trade up for McCoy.
If Seattle were to take Berry at No. 6, they could make a move up for Gerald McCoy by packaging their second-round pick (No. 40) and second first-round pick (No. 14) to move into the top 10 to select McCoy.
Another team that has the money to make a move would be the Giants. They are lacking an elite presence at defensive tackle and could also conceivably move up for McCoy if he were to fall out of the top six picks. The Browns and Bills are two candidates to trade down should this happen.
Summarizing McCoy's draft range:
A) The Lions could possibly take McCoy at No. 2, but I think he is a darkhorse.
B) The Lions select Ndamukong Suh, which then means Tampa takes McCoy at No. 3.
C) If the Rams opt for Sam Bradford and the Lions take Okung, then McCoy is highly likely to fall out of the top five picks and probably will be drafted by the Seahawks at No. 6 overall.
D) If the Rams opt for Bradford, the Lions take Okung, and the Seahawks take Berry at No. 6, then McCoy will come off the board at No. 7 overall or No. 9 overall via trade - probably involving Seattle, New York Giants, or maybe even Jacksonville if they are willing to pay more money to move up.