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Posted Jan. 3, 2009

Josh Freeman Declares for the 2009 NFL Draft

A surprising announcement was made two days ago when Kansas State signal caller Josh Freeman declared for the 2009 NFL Draft. The NFL Advisory Committee told him he would likely be a high second-round pick. The KSU program is going to go through a coaching change, but was this the best decision for Freeman?

It remains to be seen. I have a hard time seeing a 6-6, 250-pound quarterback with a big arm fall in the NFL Draft.

I however, would not take Freeman in the first round. He is not a very polished quarterback who should take a few years to develop. He is still very raw and does not show much maturity for a pocket passer. Then again, I did say Joe Flacco would take one or two years to develop. So much for that prediction.

I guess what I am getting at is I think Freeman could end up missing out on millions. A high second-round pick earns about a million dollars a season. Freeman could also end up rising on some teams' draft board like Flacco, who made bank at five years, $30 million with Baltimore.

It would not shock me to see some team trade up for or draft Freeman in the first round. Tampa Bay is desperate for a franchise quarterback. Maybe Detroit plans to go with Freeman with their second first round pick, allowing them to take an Andre Smith or Michael Oher at No. 1.

I would be somewhat shocked if the NFL teams saw Freeman as a project quarterback and looked past him in the first two rounds.

If I were Freeman, I might return to school for my senior season. I have the talent you cannot take away from me. I am not Brian Brohm or Colt Brennan with below-average arm strength. I have the potential to go in the top five and make some serious money.

This is certainly a gamble, but Freeman would grow more as a decision-maker and leader. However, he also risks injury and potentially having a disappointing season.

Either way, it is not a bad decision.

What grade do I have on Freeman? I would not draft him in the first two rounds. He never showed me much consistency, and I was not impressed with one of the three games I saw of Kansas State's this year. Looking at box scores, he only dominated against lesser competition, and only stepped up against Texas A&M. I saw too many errors in decision-making and reading defenses to give him a second-round grade. He has a tendency to stare down receivers, and like many underclassmen he does not throw the ball away when his receivers aren't open. He does a good job of not forcing throws, but the accuracy is far from where I want it to be.

High upside? Absolutely, but I would go back to school to work on accuracy and leadership, and take a chance on that top-five money in 2010.

Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

Analyzing Andrew Luck's Decision - 1/7
Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
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2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
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NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
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Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
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2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
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2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range - 3/12
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Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
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2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
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Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl - 1/14
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Cameron Heyward's Ceiling - 12/17
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2010 NFL Draft Cursed? - 10/8
Conservative Carroll - 9/22
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Scouting Notes: Weeks 2-3 - 9/20
Terrelle Pryor - NFL QB? - 9/15
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Why Vick Hasn't Signed - 8/12
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