i realize that some people may not like Shawn Oakman because of this or that, but i guarantee you that cat's not falling to the end of the fourth round. I hope he does, because I'm a carolina fan, but there's no way a DE that big and fast will last that long. He's kinda like Julius Peppers physically. except bigger.
Last year, I learned it is not smart to declare a pick a lock, unless of course you end up being right.
This year, it is nearly a lock. I believe it is highly probable that Georgia signal caller Matthew Stafford will hear his name called first on April 25 at Radio City Music Hall ahead of Mark Sanchez.
Why do I think this is so probable? Let's go through the two reasons:
1. Stafford's experience over Sanchez's dictates he will go first.
Stafford was born with a rocket launcher for a right arm (that is my slogan, and I might trademark it), but it is not the reason he will go ahead of Sanchez.
Stafford has thrown 500 more balls in his career than Sanchez. Both players ran pro-style offenses in college, so we aren't comparing apples and oranges. Stafford has much, much, much more experience. The Detroit Lions will not take a quarterback with only 487 college pass attempts and a year of starting experience No. 1 overall. It is not going to happen.
2. Stafford's arm strength over Sanchez's dictates he will go first.
Stafford's arm strength is another reason he will go ahead of Sanchez. Remember in 2007, we had the JaMarcus Russell vs. Brady Quinn debate. Russell's arm strength won out and he was taken No. 1. The same will happen this year. Stafford has slightly more upside, and that is another reason he will be taken first.
Now the Lions could end up packaging picks Nos. 21 and 65 for Matt Cassel and end up taking a left tackle (Oher, Monroe, or Smith) No. 1. It will make for an interesting decision over the next four months.
One more thing of note:
I am your host on WalterFootball.com for coverage of Senior Bowl 2009. I will be at the weigh-in, practice, and media night talking to coaches, scouts, players, and the media. Don't go anywhere, I will have your every need satisfied all week long.