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Posted March 7, 2009
Jeremy Maclin is Overrated
I really cannot stand the consensus opinion in the mid-part of the first round this time of year. Everyone acts like the NFL Draft is set in stone and their big board is immortal.
I am not like that. I know the NFL Draft is somewhat unpredictable and to pigeonhole prospects between picks 13 and 15 is ridiculous.
The general consensus on Maclin's draft range is he is a locked-in top-20 pick. I have to strongly disagree. After reading my scouting report on Maclin, check out these other NFL busts who were great vertical threats but were immature route runners with inconsistent hands:
I am not saying Maclin will completely bust. What I am saying is he will not have an immediate impact in the NFL and will need 2-4 years to develop. Do you really want to spend a top-20 pick on a receiver whom you won't get any immediate production from if you split him out wide?
Let's go through picks 7 to 20 to see where Maclin fits in:
Oakland might take Maclin because they do have a need right now. However, we all know they will sign Terrell Owens, and I think they will make a trade up for Darrius Heyward-Bey and take a pass rusher at No. 7 overall. Maclin is an Al Davis' darkhorse.
The Jaguars are somewhat of a possibility, but they have bigger needs at cornerback and left tackle.
No chance the Packers take him at No. 9 with young talents like Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings.
San Francisco needs quarterback, pass-rushing linebacker and left tackle more than a receiver.
Buffalo has Lee Evans already as a deep threat with Steve Johnson and James Hardy waiting in the wings.
Denver has more important fish to fry at running back and defense rather than a project receiver like Maclin.
Washington has Antwaan Randle El, Santana Moss and Devin Thomas.
The Saints have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL already and are still developing Robert Meachem.
Houston is a wild card and a definite possibility for a receiver at 15.
San Diego is stacked with Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and Malcolm Floyd.
The Jets could use another receiver after releasing Laveranues Coles.
Chicago needs a possession receiver; not another David Terrell.
Tampa just gave Michael Clayton $24.5 million and they franchised Antonio Bryant. They have big needs at quarterback and defensive line.
No way Detroit goes receiver at 20 because they need a left tackle far more.
In the top 20, the only teams that could really take Maclin are Oakland, Houston, and the Jets. Who is to say those teams even like Maclin? Even if they do, they could pass up on him for players they have rated higher on their boards who fill bigger needs.
I really think when all is said and done, Maclin falls out of the top 20 - maybe even the first round completely. At this point last year, EVERYONE thought Devin Thomas was going in the first round.
Do not buy Maclin as a very likely top-20 pick. I think he could go in the top 20; I just do not think it is as probable as everyone else does.
I've been on a hiatus with draft work lately and was focused on my Draft Prospect Rankings which you could find in the rants on this site. So, I figured doing one more before the Combine where more prospect movement could occur to see where I stand before and after with those prospects. So, without further adieu here we go!