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Posted July 19, 2009

Predicting Future Needs

Can we predict future needs? I have heard from multiple people online that it is pointless to make a 2010 NFL Mock Draft because it is so far away in time.

Granted, predicting the players today is certainly not even close to accurate as compared to early April, but I think projecting the needs of NFL teams is more predictable than we might think.

To back up what I am saying, let's look at the 2009 NFL Draft and predict if we thought these would have been needs back in mid-2008.

1. Detroit: Quarterback (Daunte Culpepper/Dan Orlovsky) - YES
2. St. Louis: Left tackle (Orlando Pace - will be 33 with back injuries) - VERY POSSIBLE
3. Kansas City: 5-technique (Coaching change) - NO
4. Seattle: Outside linebacker (Leroy Hill - contract year) - VERY POSSIBLE
5. NY Jets: Quarterback (Brett Favre/Kellen Clemens/Brett Ratliff) - VERY POSSIBLE
6. Cincinnati: Right tackle (Stacy Andrews - contract year) - YES
7. Oakland: Wide receiver (Javon Walker/Johnnie Lee Higgins) - YES
8. Jacksonville: Left tackle (Khalif Barnes) - NO
9. Green Bay: Defensive tackle (Justin Harrell/Cullen Jenkins) - YES
10. San Francisco: Wide receiver (Josh Morgan/Isaac Bruce) - YES
11. Buffalo: Defensive end (Aaron Schobel/Chris Kelsay) - YES
12. Denver: Running back (Selvin Young/Michael Pittman) - VERY POSSIBLE
13. Washington Redskins: DE/OLB (Jason Taylor/Marcus Washington) - YES
14. New Orleans: Defensive back (Mike McKenzie/Josh Bullocks) - YES
15. Houston: Outside linebacker (Morlon Greenwood/Zach Diles) - YES
16. San Diego: Outside linebacker (Shawne Merriman/Shaun Phillilps) - NO





17. Tampa Bay: Quarterback (Jeff Garcia) - YES
18. Denver: Defensive end (Crowder/Moss/Dumervil) - YES
19. Philadelphia: Wide receiver (Curtis/Brown/Jackson) - NO
20. Detroit: Tight end (Michael Gaines) - YES
21. Cleveland: Center (Hank Fraley) - NO
22. Minnesota: Wide receiver (Rice/Berrian/Wade) - NO
23. Baltimore: Right tackle (Adam Terry) - VERY POSSIBLE
24. Atlanta: Nose tackle (Grady Jackson) - YES
25. Miami: Cornerback (Will Allen) - YES
26. Green Bay: Rush linebacker (Coaching change) - NO
27. Indianapolis: Running back (Joseph Addai) - NO
28. Buffalo: Center (Melvin Fowler) - YES
29. NY Giants: Wide Receiver (Burress/Smith/Hixon) - NO
30. Tennessee: Wide receiver (Justin Gage/Roydell Williams) - YES
31. Arizona: Running back (Edgerrin James) - YES
32. Pittsburgh: Defensive end (Brett Keisel/Aaron Smith) - NO

In conclusion, here is the breakdown: Yes (17/32 = 53%), VERY POSSIBLE (5/32 = 16%), and NO (10/32 = 31%). I understand that from year to year it will change somewhat, but we could have guessed one of each team's biggest needs 69 percent of the time a year in advance.

Scouting is getting better and better, and teams continue to fill needs with second- and mid-round picks. I think we can do a better job than we think in determining future needs based on the 2009 NFL Draft.

In the near future, I will post my preliminary top three needs for each team for the 2010 NFL Draft, then we will see how well I did a year from now.






Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

Analyzing Andrew Luck's Decision - 1/7
Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
Brett Favre Retirement Conditions - 5/30
2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
2010 NFL Power Rankings - 5/18
NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
LeBron James Game 6 Reaction - 5/14
The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
LeBron James: Celtic Pride - 5/13
The JaMarcus Russell Lesson - 5/11
Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
Double Down - 4/30
2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
Where Will Jimmy Clausen Go? - 4/5
2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range - 3/12
NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments (Anthony Davis) - 3/11
Offense Matters - 3/9
Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
Taylor Mays - 3/3
"He's a Winner" ... Not Really - 3/2
Quarterback Height (Jimmy Clausen) - 2/25
The Top Five Reasons the Redskins Won't Pass on Jimmy Clausen - 2/22
2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
Matt Ryan and the Rams - 2/17
Prospect Case Study: Tim Tebow - 2/11
2010 NFL Draft Offensive Grades - 1/20
Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl - 1/14
Junior Quarterbacks/Jimmy Clausen - 12/29
2010 NFL Draft Prospect Updates - 12/21
The Michael Oher Lesson - 12/20
Cameron Heyward's Ceiling - 12/17
Jake Locker to Return for Senior Season - 12/15
Top Four Scenario - 12/8
"Suh" is Elite - 12/7
Carlos Dunlap Update - 11/11
Player to Watch - 10/30
Alpha Quarterback - 10/29
2010 NFL Draft Mailbag - 10/28
O Bradford, Where Art Thou (Draft Stock)? - 10/27
The Trojan Torpedo - 10/26
Quarterback Mobility - 10/23
Charles Brown's Stock on the Rise - 10/18
Mays-Clausen and Gaines Adams - 10/17
Mr. Overrated - 10/14
2010 NFL Draft Cursed? - 10/8
Conservative Carroll - 9/22
The Crabtree Lesson - 9/21
Scouting Notes: Weeks 2-3 - 9/20
Terrelle Pryor - NFL QB? - 9/15
Jay Cutler Trade Evaluation - 9/14
THE Choke State University - 9/13
2009 NFL Predictions - 9/10
2009 College Football Predictions - 9/3
The Brett Favre Line - 8/20
Why Vick Hasn't Signed - 8/12
The Vince Young Lesson - 8/10
Vegas NFL Power Rankings - 8/9
Dorsey Fat - Chiefs Stupid - 8/7
Eli Manning: The $100 Million Man - 8/6
Predicting Future Needs Part II - 8/4
NFL Draft Moved - 7/24
Matt McGuire's NFL Draft Blog - Home






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