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Posted April 23, 2010
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis
I love to analyze pick trades - maybe it's because I am a complete NFL Draftnerd. I made my own Trade Value Chart a couple years ago because the current trade value chart is inaccurate and also out of date. I analyzed the trades made in the first round of yesterday's 2010 NFL Draft.
I don't look at the players when I evaluate these trades - I am just looking at picks. I am analyzing if teams maximized and leveraged the values of these trades.
My formula was first to add up the point totals of the picks on either side of the trade from the teams. From there, I subtracted the smallest point total from the biggest point total, and then divided this point total to give me my value percentage.
The team that gave up the least amount of trade value chart points in the trades "wins" the value percentage of the trade because they turned less-valuable picks previously into a more-valuable trade. Just because a team trades up or down doesn't mean they "won" the trade. More picks don't equal more value, and vice versa.
I have already calculated the trades, but feel free to double check my values using my custom trade value chart.
Trade No. 1: Denver trades No. 11 overall to San Francisco for Nos. 13 and 113
Denver gained .003% value.
San Francisco wanted to secure Anthony Davis, but trading up for him didn't make a lot of sense. Miami is already set at offensive tackle as is Seattle (Okung) and the Giants. Moving up didn't make much sense when they could have stayed at No. 13 and paid Davis less money. Smart move from Denver to move down a couple spots. However, from a trade analysis perspective, this was a very fair deal by both teams.
Trade verdict: FAIR
Trade No. 2: Miami trades Nos. 12, 110, and 173 to San Diego for Nos. 28, 40, 126 and ILB Tim Dobbins
San Diego gained 8.6% value.
At first glance, when you see Miami gets the No. 40 pick, it's very enticing. However, moving down 16 spots in the first round is a very steep price, and the trade analysis reflects that the Chargers got the better end of this deal. They were scared that Seattle or Houston would take Ryan Mathews, and wanted to secure the Fresno State product.
Trade verdict: WIN for San Diego
Trade No. 3: Denver trades No. 13 to Philadelphia for Nos. 24, 70, and 87
Denver gained 11.1% value.
Philadelphia made a big move up for Brandon Graham, and they were scared that one of the teams in the teens would pull the trigger. However, the trade value chart says Denver got the better end of the deal.
Trade verdict: WIN for Denver
Trade No. 4: New England trades No. 22 to Denver for Nos. 24 and 113
New England gained 10.2% value.
New England picks up a fourth-round pick to move down two spots. Denver should have given only a sixth- or fifth-round pick to move up; not a fourth.
Trade verdict: WIN for New England
Trade No. 5: New England trades Nos. 24 and 119 to Dallas for Nos. 27 and 90
New England gained 4.2% value
This was a pretty fair trade. Dallas desperately wanted another No. 1 target in Dez Bryant, and they paid a decent price to move up and get him. New England ended up getting the player they wanted at 27 that they would have taken at 24 anyway (Devin McCourty).
Trade verdict: FAIR
Trade No. 6: Baltimore trades No. 25 to Denver for Nos. 43, 70, and 114
Baltimore gained 23.6% value
Buffalo was lurking to trade up for Tebow, and Denver paid a steep price to draft the quarterback who can't even throw a spiral. My hatred for Tebow as a prospect aside, Ozzie Newsome shows why he is one of the best Draft Day GM's in football per the trade value chart. This is how you make deals on Draft Day. Newsome should school all the general managers on how to butt rape other teams in a trade.
Trade Verdict: BIG WIN for Baltimore
Trade No. 7: Minnesota trades Nos. 30 and 128 to Detroit for Nos. 34, 100, and 214
Minnesota gained 5.1% value
Detroit wanted to secure Jahvid Best. Minnesota wasn't in love with anyone on the board and felt like moving back. They had to know the Lions were interested in Best. Good move on both sides.
Nearly lost the faith last week after being convinced to bet on horrible teams like LA and Cleveland, but this week I have to say you're back Walt. It's not over yet (knock on wood) but Kansas City and Detroit were brilliant picks and after this week I'll almost be up as big as I was before last weekend's disaster. I know you were big on LA again this week, and they still might cover, but PLEASE remember poisonous teams and avoid betting them. I did the same with Jacksonville, LA, and SF this week despite favorable lines, you should do the same! Cheers!