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Posted April 23, 2010

2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis

I love to analyze pick trades - maybe it's because I am a complete NFL Draftnerd. I made my own Trade Value Chart a couple years ago because the current trade value chart is inaccurate and also out of date. I analyzed the trades made in the first round of yesterday's 2010 NFL Draft.

I don't look at the players when I evaluate these trades - I am just looking at picks. I am analyzing if teams maximized and leveraged the values of these trades.

My formula was first to add up the point totals of the picks on either side of the trade from the teams. From there, I subtracted the smallest point total from the biggest point total, and then divided this point total to give me my value percentage.

The team that gave up the least amount of trade value chart points in the trades "wins" the value percentage of the trade because they turned less-valuable picks previously into a more-valuable trade. Just because a team trades up or down doesn't mean they "won" the trade. More picks don't equal more value, and vice versa.

I have already calculated the trades, but feel free to double check my values using my custom trade value chart.

Trade No. 1: Denver trades No. 11 overall to San Francisco for Nos. 13 and 113
Denver gained .003% value.

San Francisco wanted to secure Anthony Davis, but trading up for him didn't make a lot of sense. Miami is already set at offensive tackle as is Seattle (Okung) and the Giants. Moving up didn't make much sense when they could have stayed at No. 13 and paid Davis less money. Smart move from Denver to move down a couple spots. However, from a trade analysis perspective, this was a very fair deal by both teams.

Trade verdict: FAIR

Trade No. 2: Miami trades Nos. 12, 110, and 173 to San Diego for Nos. 28, 40, 126 and ILB Tim Dobbins
San Diego gained 8.6% value.

At first glance, when you see Miami gets the No. 40 pick, it's very enticing. However, moving down 16 spots in the first round is a very steep price, and the trade analysis reflects that the Chargers got the better end of this deal. They were scared that Seattle or Houston would take Ryan Mathews, and wanted to secure the Fresno State product.

Trade verdict: WIN for San Diego

Trade No. 3: Denver trades No. 13 to Philadelphia for Nos. 24, 70, and 87
Denver gained 11.1% value.

Philadelphia made a big move up for Brandon Graham, and they were scared that one of the teams in the teens would pull the trigger. However, the trade value chart says Denver got the better end of the deal.

Trade verdict: WIN for Denver

Trade No. 4: New England trades No. 22 to Denver for Nos. 24 and 113
New England gained 10.2% value.

New England picks up a fourth-round pick to move down two spots. Denver should have given only a sixth- or fifth-round pick to move up; not a fourth.

Trade verdict: WIN for New England

Trade No. 5: New England trades Nos. 24 and 119 to Dallas for Nos. 27 and 90
New England gained 4.2% value

This was a pretty fair trade. Dallas desperately wanted another No. 1 target in Dez Bryant, and they paid a decent price to move up and get him. New England ended up getting the player they wanted at 27 that they would have taken at 24 anyway (Devin McCourty).

Trade verdict: FAIR

Trade No. 6: Baltimore trades No. 25 to Denver for Nos. 43, 70, and 114
Baltimore gained 23.6% value

Buffalo was lurking to trade up for Tebow, and Denver paid a steep price to draft the quarterback who can't even throw a spiral. My hatred for Tebow as a prospect aside, Ozzie Newsome shows why he is one of the best Draft Day GM's in football per the trade value chart. This is how you make deals on Draft Day. Newsome should school all the general managers on how to butt rape other teams in a trade.

Trade Verdict: BIG WIN for Baltimore

Trade No. 7: Minnesota trades Nos. 30 and 128 to Detroit for Nos. 34, 100, and 214
Minnesota gained 5.1% value

Detroit wanted to secure Jahvid Best. Minnesota wasn't in love with anyone on the board and felt like moving back. They had to know the Lions were interested in Best. Good move on both sides.

Trade Verdict: FAIR

Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

Analyzing Andrew Luck's Decision - 1/7
Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
Brett Favre Retirement Conditions - 5/30
2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
2010 NFL Power Rankings - 5/18
NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
LeBron James Game 6 Reaction - 5/14
The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
LeBron James: Celtic Pride - 5/13
The JaMarcus Russell Lesson - 5/11
Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
Double Down - 4/30
2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
Where Will Jimmy Clausen Go? - 4/5
2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range - 3/12
NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments (Anthony Davis) - 3/11
Offense Matters - 3/9
Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
Taylor Mays - 3/3
"He's a Winner" ... Not Really - 3/2
Quarterback Height (Jimmy Clausen) - 2/25
The Top Five Reasons the Redskins Won't Pass on Jimmy Clausen - 2/22
2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
Matt Ryan and the Rams - 2/17
Prospect Case Study: Tim Tebow - 2/11
2010 NFL Draft Offensive Grades - 1/20
Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl - 1/14
Junior Quarterbacks/Jimmy Clausen - 12/29
2010 NFL Draft Prospect Updates - 12/21
The Michael Oher Lesson - 12/20
Cameron Heyward's Ceiling - 12/17
Jake Locker to Return for Senior Season - 12/15
Top Four Scenario - 12/8
"Suh" is Elite - 12/7
Carlos Dunlap Update - 11/11
Player to Watch - 10/30
Alpha Quarterback - 10/29
2010 NFL Draft Mailbag - 10/28
O Bradford, Where Art Thou (Draft Stock)? - 10/27
The Trojan Torpedo - 10/26
Quarterback Mobility - 10/23
Charles Brown's Stock on the Rise - 10/18
Mays-Clausen and Gaines Adams - 10/17
Mr. Overrated - 10/14
2010 NFL Draft Cursed? - 10/8
Conservative Carroll - 9/22
The Crabtree Lesson - 9/21
Scouting Notes: Weeks 2-3 - 9/20
Terrelle Pryor - NFL QB? - 9/15
Jay Cutler Trade Evaluation - 9/14
THE Choke State University - 9/13
2009 NFL Predictions - 9/10
2009 College Football Predictions - 9/3
The Brett Favre Line - 8/20
Why Vick Hasn't Signed - 8/12
The Vince Young Lesson - 8/10
Vegas NFL Power Rankings - 8/9
Dorsey Fat - Chiefs Stupid - 8/7
Eli Manning: The $100 Million Man - 8/6
Predicting Future Needs Part II - 8/4
NFL Draft Moved - 7/24
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