NFL for me today: Start up three team open par with Vikings -2.5, Patriots -7, one open for the time being. If things go well here, more than likely I will be taking the Broncos to close out this par on Monday. I am risking two units on this par as I really like both chalk spreads here. Closing a two team 6 point teaser with the Pats at -1.5. I also have an ongoing 3 team 10 point teaser that I will probably use as a hedge against the above par play. That's it for me this NFL weekend, as I really don't like any other lined games. GLTA today.
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Posted Sept. 14, 2009
Jay Cutler Trade Evaluation
I am not one to have a knee-jerk opinion. I think people who knee jerk (or completely change their opinion in a short period of time also known as "fair-weathered") are amateurs. It shows that your opinion isn't strong and you are admitting you didn't do adequate analysis in foresight. There is nothing wrong with admitting you are wrong because if you never admit your are wrong, then you can never learn anything.
Get to your point, McGuire: The Jay Cutler trade is still in the Bears favor.
Kyle Orton is not a good quarterback. He isn't even an average quarterback. Josh McDaniels' gimmick shotgun offense will fluff his stats, but Orton doesn't have the arm to beat a defense on throws that require velocity, and he is a horrible decision-maker (i.e. left-handed goal line pass versus Seattle in preseason).
Let's examine Chicago's options. One option was to give up two first-round picks for a quarterback with a career 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 45 touchdowns in the past two seasons at the ripe age of 25 (when the trade was made) with elite arm strength (this is unbelievably rare).
Their other option was to draft a quarterback. At No. 18 overall, the only quarterback that potentially could have been on the board is Josh Freeman.
Either way, Chicago was going to have to invest their 2009 first-round draft pick in a quarterback.
The question remains: Jay Cutler and your 2010 first-round pick, or Josh Freeman?
Josh Freeman is the No. 3 quarterback in Tampa. He is 21 years old and it will take him a while to develop. He was highly inconsistent at Kansas State and you don't get immediate production out of him.
Clearly, Chicago made the right decision trading for Cutler.
If you think Chicago made the wrong trade, then you think Orton is a better quarterback than Cutler.
If you previously thought Chicago made the right trade but now you take that statement back, then that makes you an amateur because you think Cutler isn't as good as Josh Freeman, which is to say absolutely ridiculous.