Here's my analysis on the Redskins/Giants game...all of my picks are free at www.blackboxsports.net ... I might post my Denver play later as well, but it's up on the site if you're interested. Good luck to all the gamblohrs in here!
The Giants have put up quite a few points this season, but have had a relatively easy schedule thus far, at least in terms of defenses they’ve played. In fact, the highest ranked defense they’ve played recently was the Patriots (7th), who held them to 26 pts. That said, the Redskins don’t qualify as having a good, or even average defense themselves, as they currently rank 31st in our Power Rankings, with a pitiful power rating of 20 (out of a 100). They can’t stop the run at all, allowing 4.8 YPC this season (t-2nd last), and also have a hard time against the pass, allowing 7.7 YPA this season. They also can’t get to the QB, and are allowing a 109 QBR and a whopping 6.4 YPP (yards per play) over the last 6 weeks….they’re just pitiful. While the Giants probably won’t be able to take advantage on the ground, Eli and company will certainly take advantage aerially.
On the other side, the Redskins do have some hope. The Giants rank in the middle of the pack at stopping the run, which will be important in this game as the Redskins try to control the clock with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris. If they can keep Cousins in manageable down and distances, I like their chances of putting up a ton of points themselves. The Giants D, despite being ranked 23rd in our Power Rankings, are allowing 6.6 YPP over the last 6 weeks (worse than the Redskins) and, despite JPP playing a lot better than expected off an amputated finger, still struggle to get any pressure on the QB (I’m not buying the Patriots game – Brady has been under duress all season).
This game is shaping up to be a back and forth affair, so I like taking the home team with the free FG. I also like the situational angles here, as the Redskins are coming off a blow-out defeat to the Panthers, while the Giants are coming off a very tight loss to the undefeated Pats, and are also off a bye, which explains why this spread is moving in the direction of the Giants. The whole point of the Model is to cut thru all the noise, public bias, media hype and other crap that can move a line, so I’m not surprised it’s saying the Redskins are undervalued right now. The standard method for recommending units likes the Skins for 2 units (see above in the Statistical Model section), and so does the new method. I’m sticking with 2 units on the Redskins.
LINE MOVEMENT: This line has dropped to 2.5, indicating the professional bettors are all over the Redskins. I still like the skins for 2 units, even at 2.5, but I'm going to hold out and see if 3 pops back up again. We're not risking much by doing this, since the worst case scenario is the line moves down to 2, which isn't a big deal.
OVER-UNDER: I don't normally play over-unders, but for whatever reason I'm trying it this week for a few games. This total doesn't make sense to me - 47? Both teams can put up 30+, and a 28-24 final would actually be on the low side to me. I'm going with 1 unit on the Over.
FINAL BET: This line has dropped to +2..I'm locking this in for 2 units.
INJURY UPDATES: I don't normally post all the injuries, but considering a lot of people are scared to take the Redskins, I decided to give an update. The Giants have 2 key injuries on their Offensive Line - G Justin Pugh and C Weston Richburg (who is having a stellar season). Center is so important, so the latter is really going to hurt.
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Posted Feb. 17, 2010
Matt Ryan and the Rams
What does Matt Ryan have to do with the St. Louis Rams?
No, I am not referring to the Rams passing up on Ryan in the 2008 NFL Draft, taking Chris Long ahead of him.
The Atlanta Falcons were dead set on taking Glenn Dorsey - the defensive tackle out of Louisiana State - over Matt Ryan the day before the draft.
Something happened and they changed their mind - they talked themselves into drafting the gunslinger out of Boston College.
Despite his faults as a quarterback making bad decisions and throwing lots of interceptions, they loved his intelligence, competitiveness, intangibles and potential as a franchise quarterback.
General Manager Thomas Dimitroff realized his team really would never have a chance unless they had a quarterback, and maybe owner Arthur Blank had something to say in regards to getting this franchise past the Michael Vick fiasco.
The Rams are going to get a reality check sooner or later. They will realize they will never be able to win consistently without a quarterback. Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy simply aren't going to put points up on the scoreboard. It takes more than one player on defense to be consistently productive.
A quarterback makes or breaks a team. This is a passing league and if you don't have a quarterback, then your team is facing a major uphill battle in terms of consistently making the playoffs.
The more I think about it, the more I believe the Rams are going to talk themselves into Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford with the No. 1 overall pick. They simply have no options if they don't address the position significantly in free agency. Any quarterback they take in the second round is going to be a reach - Colt McCoy is finally being regarded as a mid-round talent and you can't rely on his mediocre talent level.
Looking at the past and fitting it into the present, the top pick in the 2010 NFL Draft is probably going to be Clausen or Bradford. The Falcons decided the night before the draft to take Ryan at No. 3 overall - I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams followed suit.