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Posted April 21, 2010

2010 NFL Draft Trades

Everybody thinks they know what will happen on Draft Day. We all believe our mocks are golden. Some of us will get close, but rest assured, trades will happen.

I remember in the first Mock Draft contest, several people thought (in the tie-breaker) that there would be no trades in the first round. Trades are going to happen when we least expect it. Did anyone foresee the Jets move up for Mark Sanchez all the way to No. 5 overall from 17? Nobody thought Michael Oher would fall as long as he did, then the Baltimore Ravens moved up to get him. The Packers came out of nowhere to get Clay Matthews.

What will happen this weekend? Here are my predictions, but please don't have high expectations. Trades are nearly impossible to predict, so if I get just two or three of these right, I'll be happy.

Atlanta moves up for JPP/Derrick Morgan
Atlanta's No. 1 need is defensive end, right? Well, if it only takes you a third-round pick to move up and get a potentially elite pass rusher, then you should do it. The kicker is Atlanta has no second-round pick, which makes it a little more difficult. However, if they have a chance to pair John Abraham with Pierre-Paul or Morgan, then they might want to re-think drafting a softee (Everson Griffen) or midget-armed bookend (Brandon Graham) at No. 19.

Baltimore/Dallas/San Diego/Jets move up for Jared Odrick
Odrick is one of the most valuable commodities in the 2010 NFL Draft. Why? Several 3-4 teams need a 5-technique, and it is a weak 5-technique draft. Odrick is the prototypical 5-technique with heavy hands, great size, consistent motor and outstanding bulk. I think Odrick will go in the top 20 picks, and one of these four teams will move up for him. New England wasn't included because they just hope he'll be on the board at No. 22, and they have a history of trading down.

Philadelphia moves up for Earl Thomas
Peter King of SI mentioned it, and it makes a lot of sense. The Eagles need help in the defensive backfield, and they have several picks in the 2010 NFL Draft to play with. Thomas is currently the 10/11 favorite to be taken at the No. 10 overall spot according to, but he isn't one of the favorites to go to Jacksonville according to all their beat writers. It wouldn't shock me if the Eagles and Jaguars have a deal in place now and are just waiting for Draft Day to make it happen. I think the Eagles move up to get this playmaker.

Arizona moves up a little bit to secure Jimmy Clausen
I'm very confident Clausen will fall in the 2010 NFL Draft, and Arizona has to be absolutely kidding themselves if they think Derek Anderson can make this team a perennial Super Bowl contender. Clausen would be an absolute steal if he fell out of the top 10 picks, and Arizona might just wait until the last minute and trade a fourth-round pick to move up four or five spots to secure Clausen. He gives this franchise a true future, but his best value is he can play immediately.

Buffalo Bills move up late first for Tim Tebow
It's going to happen. Tebow fits the blue-collar Buffalo communitity well and this regime in Buffalo is very "long in the tooths" according to Emmitt Smith. The Bills can sacrifice their Nos. 41 and 72 picks and get into the late round to take Tebow. I've never said it before, but I think Tebow will be a first-round pick. And yes, everybody will be circling the wagons because Tebow will be an absolute bust as a signal-caller in the NFL.

Several trades in the late first round
Everybody is hyping up the top of the second round, but what about the late first? I think there are going to be so many players whom teams have rated in the top 15 of their boards who fall into the 20s, and teams in the very late part of the first round move up to get their guy, or teams in the second round make drastic trades to get another franchise cornerstone. I think between picks 22 and 32, there will be at least five new trades made.

Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

Analyzing Andrew Luck's Decision - 1/7
Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
Brett Favre Retirement Conditions - 5/30
2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
2010 NFL Power Rankings - 5/18
NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
LeBron James Game 6 Reaction - 5/14
The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
LeBron James: Celtic Pride - 5/13
The JaMarcus Russell Lesson - 5/11
Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
Double Down - 4/30
2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
Where Will Jimmy Clausen Go? - 4/5
2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range - 3/12
NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments (Anthony Davis) - 3/11
Offense Matters - 3/9
Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
Taylor Mays - 3/3
"He's a Winner" ... Not Really - 3/2
Quarterback Height (Jimmy Clausen) - 2/25
The Top Five Reasons the Redskins Won't Pass on Jimmy Clausen - 2/22
2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
Matt Ryan and the Rams - 2/17
Prospect Case Study: Tim Tebow - 2/11
2010 NFL Draft Offensive Grades - 1/20
Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl - 1/14
Junior Quarterbacks/Jimmy Clausen - 12/29
2010 NFL Draft Prospect Updates - 12/21
The Michael Oher Lesson - 12/20
Cameron Heyward's Ceiling - 12/17
Jake Locker to Return for Senior Season - 12/15
Top Four Scenario - 12/8
"Suh" is Elite - 12/7
Carlos Dunlap Update - 11/11
Player to Watch - 10/30
Alpha Quarterback - 10/29
2010 NFL Draft Mailbag - 10/28
O Bradford, Where Art Thou (Draft Stock)? - 10/27
The Trojan Torpedo - 10/26
Quarterback Mobility - 10/23
Charles Brown's Stock on the Rise - 10/18
Mays-Clausen and Gaines Adams - 10/17
Mr. Overrated - 10/14
2010 NFL Draft Cursed? - 10/8
Conservative Carroll - 9/22
The Crabtree Lesson - 9/21
Scouting Notes: Weeks 2-3 - 9/20
Terrelle Pryor - NFL QB? - 9/15
Jay Cutler Trade Evaluation - 9/14
THE Choke State University - 9/13
2009 NFL Predictions - 9/10
2009 College Football Predictions - 9/3
The Brett Favre Line - 8/20
Why Vick Hasn't Signed - 8/12
The Vince Young Lesson - 8/10
Vegas NFL Power Rankings - 8/9
Dorsey Fat - Chiefs Stupid - 8/7
Eli Manning: The $100 Million Man - 8/6
Predicting Future Needs Part II - 8/4
NFL Draft Moved - 7/24
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