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Posted Aug. 9, 2009

Vegas Power Rankings

If you haven't checked out my 2009 NFL Power Rankings, then your probably should.

Let's evaluate Vegas' power rankings (and they might be smoking crack), then look at the best buys for the 2009 season. After all, if you had laid $100 on the Cardinals last season, you would have won $2,700.

These odds were taken from BodogLife.com

Key: 5 = 5/1

1. New England: 4

2. Pittsburgh: 9

4. San Diego: 10

4. Philadelphia: 10

5. NY Giants: 11

7. Indianapolis: 12

7. Minnesota: 12

8. Dallas: 15

9. Chicago: 16

10. Tennessee: 20

13. New Orleans: 22

13. Carolina: 22

13. Baltimore: 22

14. Atlanta: 24

15. Arizona: 26

16. Green Bay: 28



17. Washington: 34

19. Houston: 35

19. Jacksonville: 35

21. Miami: 40

21. New York Jets: 40

22. Seattle: 45

24. Tampa Bay: 50

24. Buffalo: 50

26. San Francisco: 55

26. Denver: 55

28. Kansas City: 65

28. Cincinnati: 65

29. Cleveland: 80

30. Oakland: 90

32. Saint Louis: 100

32. Detroit: 100



Let's break this down. I have absolutely no clue how Minnesota and Dallas are so high on this list. Minnesota will be relying on either Sage Rosenfails or Tarvaris Jackson to get them to the Super Bowl. This isn't happening. And Wade Phillips leads his team to a Super Bowl? I have eaten marshmallows that were tougher than Wade Phillips.

McGuire's Best Buy No. 1 has to be the Washington Redskins at 34:1 odds. They added Albert Haynesworth, Brian Orakpo and Jeremy Jarmon to a defense that ranked sixth last season in defensive yards per play and fourth in scoring defense. If they don't have the best defense in the NFL, then it's second-best.

Their defense is too good to be that low on Bodog's power rankings. Therefore, we should buy low.

McGuire's Best Buy No. 2 is the Houston Texans at 35:1 odds. If their defensive line can come around with Amobi Okoye and Mario Williams, they'll have a chance to shock some people in January. If Matt Schaub stays healthy, then this is a great bet. They have the explosive offense to catch some teams off guard and the potential on defense to win in the playoffs.

McGuire's Best Buy No. 3 is the Chicago Bears at 16:1 odds. They added the best young quarterback in the NFL to their offense (and by "young" I mean from the 2005 to 2008 NFL Drafts) along with Orlando Pace. The defense was highly underrated last season. You will hear ESPN and NFL Network analysts say how they were 21st in total defense and 16th in scoring defense.

Unfortunately for you, these six-figure analysts don't do any real research. Based on my Advanced Statistics study, the Chicago Bears were fifth in the NFL in defensive yards per play and 10th in defensive turnover rate. With an offense that can move the football down the field and keep the defense off the field, the defensive line rotation will be more fresh and aggressive this season.

You might be thinking why my choice to win the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints, are not one of my picks at 22:1 odds. Sean Payton is a terrible game manager and he is known for making really stupid play-calling decisions, putting his team in tough spots. I love the Saints, but they don't have the coach to win them a Super Bowl.



Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

Analyzing Andrew Luck's Decision - 1/7
Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
Brett Favre Retirement Conditions - 5/30
2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
2010 NFL Power Rankings - 5/18
NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
LeBron James Game 6 Reaction - 5/14
The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
LeBron James: Celtic Pride - 5/13
The JaMarcus Russell Lesson - 5/11
Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
Double Down - 4/30
2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
Where Will Jimmy Clausen Go? - 4/5
2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
Gerald McCoy's Draft Range - 3/12
NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments (Anthony Davis) - 3/11
Offense Matters - 3/9
Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
Taylor Mays - 3/3
"He's a Winner" ... Not Really - 3/2
Quarterback Height (Jimmy Clausen) - 2/25
The Top Five Reasons the Redskins Won't Pass on Jimmy Clausen - 2/22
2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
Matt Ryan and the Rams - 2/17
Prospect Case Study: Tim Tebow - 2/11
2010 NFL Draft Offensive Grades - 1/20
Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl - 1/14
Junior Quarterbacks/Jimmy Clausen - 12/29
2010 NFL Draft Prospect Updates - 12/21
The Michael Oher Lesson - 12/20
Cameron Heyward's Ceiling - 12/17
Jake Locker to Return for Senior Season - 12/15
Top Four Scenario - 12/8
"Suh" is Elite - 12/7
Carlos Dunlap Update - 11/11
Player to Watch - 10/30
Alpha Quarterback - 10/29
2010 NFL Draft Mailbag - 10/28
O Bradford, Where Art Thou (Draft Stock)? - 10/27
The Trojan Torpedo - 10/26
Quarterback Mobility - 10/23
Charles Brown's Stock on the Rise - 10/18
Mays-Clausen and Gaines Adams - 10/17
Mr. Overrated - 10/14
2010 NFL Draft Cursed? - 10/8
Conservative Carroll - 9/22
The Crabtree Lesson - 9/21
Scouting Notes: Weeks 2-3 - 9/20
Terrelle Pryor - NFL QB? - 9/15
Jay Cutler Trade Evaluation - 9/14
THE Choke State University - 9/13
2009 NFL Predictions - 9/10
2009 College Football Predictions - 9/3
The Brett Favre Line - 8/20
Why Vick Hasn't Signed - 8/12
The Vince Young Lesson - 8/10
Vegas NFL Power Rankings - 8/9
Dorsey Fat - Chiefs Stupid - 8/7
Eli Manning: The $100 Million Man - 8/6
Predicting Future Needs Part II - 8/4
NFL Draft Moved - 7/24
Matt McGuire's NFL Draft Blog - Home






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