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Posted July 19, 2009

Predicting Future Needs

Can we predict future needs? I have heard from multiple people online that it is pointless to make a 2010 NFL Mock Draft because it is so far away in time.

Granted, predicting the players today is certainly not even close to accurate as compared to early April, but I think projecting the needs of NFL teams is more predictable than we might think.

To back up what I am saying, let’s look at the 2009 NFL Draft and predict if we thought these would have been needs back in mid-2008.

1. Detroit: Quarterback (Daunte Culpepper/Dan Orlovsky) – YES
2. St. Louis: Left tackle (Orlando Pace – will be 33 with back injuries) – VERY POSSIBLE
3. Kansas City: 5-technique (Coaching change) – NO
4. Seattle: Outside linebacker (Leroy Hill – contract year) – VERY POSSIBLE
5. NY Jets: Quarterback (Brett Favre/Kellen Clemens/Brett Ratliff) – VERY POSSIBLE
6. Cincinnati: Right tackle (Stacy Andrews – contract year) – YES
7. Oakland: Wide receiver (Javon Walker/Johnnie Lee Higgins) – YES
8. Jacksonville: Left tackle (Khalif Barnes) – NO
9. Green Bay: Defensive tackle (Justin Harrell/Cullen Jenkins) – YES
10. San Francisco: Wide receiver (Josh Morgan/Isaac Bruce) – YES
11. Buffalo: Defensive end (Aaron Schobel/Chris Kelsay) – YES
12. Denver: Running back (Selvin Young/Michael Pittman) – VERY POSSIBLE
13. Washington Redskins: DE/OLB (Jason Taylor/Marcus Washington) – YES
14. New Orleans: Defensive back (Mike McKenzie/Josh Bullocks) – YES
15. Houston: Outside linebacker (Morlon Greenwood/Zach Diles) – YES
16. San Diego: Outside linebacker (Shawne Merriman/Shaun Phillilps) – NO





17. Tampa Bay: Quarterback (Jeff Garcia) – YES
18. Denver: Defensive end (Crowder/Moss/Dumervil) – YES
19. Philadelphia: Wide receiver (Curtis/Brown/Jackson) – NO
20. Detroit: Tight end (Michael Gaines) – YES
21. Cleveland: Center (Hank Fraley) – NO
22. Minnesota: Wide receiver (Rice/Berrian/Wade) – NO
23. Baltimore: Right tackle (Adam Terry) – VERY POSSIBLE
24. Atlanta: Nose tackle (Grady Jackson) – YES
25. Miami: Cornerback (Will Allen) – YES
26. Green Bay: Rush linebacker (Coaching change) – NO
27. Indianapolis: Running back (Joseph Addai) – NO
28. Buffalo: Center (Melvin Fowler) – YES
29. NY Giants: Wide Receiver (Burress/Smith/Hixon) – NO
30. Tennessee: Wide receiver (Justin Gage/Roydell Williams) – YES
31. Arizona: Running back (Edgerrin James) – YES
32. Pittsburgh: Defensive end (Brett Keisel/Aaron Smith) – NO

In conclusion, here is the breakdown: Yes (17/32 = 53%), VERY POSSIBLE (5/32 = 16%), and NO (10/32 = 31%). I understand that from year to year it will change somewhat, but we could have guessed one of each team’s biggest needs 69 percent of the time a year in advance.

Scouting is getting better and better, and teams continue to fill needs with second- and mid-round picks. I think we can do a better job than we think in determining future needs based on the 2009 NFL Draft.

In the near future, I will post my preliminary top three needs for each team for the 2010 NFL Draft, then we will see how well I did a year from now.






Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

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Luck vs. Locker - 9/15
Top 10 Quarterback Busts - 7/7
NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
Six Sophomores Who Need to Step Up - 6/2
Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
Brett Favre Retirement Conditions - 5/30
2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
2010 NFL Power Rankings - 5/18
NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
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The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
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Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
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2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
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Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
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