This is Matt McGuire's NFL Draft blog, where he'll talk about the NFL Draft, anything that has to do with football and whatever else is on his mind. Send Matt an e-mail here: email@example.com.
All other e-mail, including advertising and link proposals, send to: firstname.lastname@example.org
Posted April 20, 2009
Chris Wells Could Fall
In nearly every draft, there are one or two guys who unexpectedly fall out of the first round. We all mentally pencil them into the first round, because how could they possibly fall to the second?
This year, it could very well be running back Chris "Beanie" Wells from Ohio State.
The first team that could draft Wells is New Orleans. It would be a typical Sean Payton pick - remember, he took Robert Meachem in 2007 when everyone mocked the Saints with a defensive player. They could use a bigger back next to Reggie Bush.
Let's take a look at the rest of the teams in the first round:
Houston: It is not looking like the Texans will take a running back at No. 15, but if they did, it would be Knowshon Moreno.
Chargers: LaDanian Tomlinson's contract was extended. No chance they take a back here.
Jets: This is a possibility, but they could also take Knowshon Moreno, Josh Freeman, Jeremy Maclin or Kenny Britt.
Broncos: No way.
Buccaneers: They brought in Derrick Ward and have Earnest Graham on the roster. No chance here.
Eagles: Very possible pick here, but remember they could consider other prospects.
Vikings: Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor?
Patriots: Laurence Maroney is on the roster along with Fred Taylor. I doubt it.
Falcons: Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood say hello.
Dolphins: If Ronnie Brown isn't traded based on the latest rumors, there is no way the Dolphins go running back.
Ravens: Doubtful since they drafted Ray Rice in the second round in 2008.
Colts: Wells does not fit this offensive scheme, plus wide receiver and defensive tackle are the biggest needs.
Bills: Buffalo has so many needs at tight end, linebacker, defensive end - just not likely.
Giants: The Giants already have a big, mauling back in Brandon Jacobs. If they want a No. 2 option it would be Moreno or Donald Brown.
Tennessee: Shake N'Bake - enough said.
Cardinals: This is a possible destination, though less likely because they have Tim Hightower as a short-yardage back. I will change this pick in my final mock draft.
Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall was drafted in the first last year, so no possibility for Wells here.
When you break it down, the only teams in Wells' draft range in the first round include New Orleans, the New York Jets and Philadelphia.
Granted, another team like Cincinnati or Seattle could trade up into the first round for Wells, but he could take a serious draft day slide if those three teams choose to pass.
No one expected Rashard Mendenhall to fall to No. 23 last year. In the 2009 NFL Draft, this can be anticipated, so you can look like the draft genius when you tell your buddies, "Beanie Wells could fall out of the first round if no one trades up for him."
With only three teams seriously considering him (and considering other players as well), this is a very real possibility.