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Posted April 20, 2009

Chris Wells Could Fall

In nearly every draft, there are one or two guys who unexpectedly fall out of the first round. We all mentally pencil them into the first round, because how could they possibly fall to the second?

This year, it could very well be running back Chris "Beanie" Wells from Ohio State.

The first team that could draft Wells is New Orleans. It would be a typical Sean Payton pick - remember, he took Robert Meachem in 2007 when everyone mocked the Saints with a defensive player. They could use a bigger back next to Reggie Bush.

Let's take a look at the rest of the teams in the first round:

Houston: It is not looking like the Texans will take a running back at No. 15, but if they did, it would be Knowshon Moreno.

Chargers: LaDanian Tomlinson's contract was extended. No chance they take a back here.

Jets: This is a possibility, but they could also take Knowshon Moreno, Josh Freeman, Jeremy Maclin or Kenny Britt.

Broncos: No way.

Buccaneers: They brought in Derrick Ward and have Earnest Graham on the roster. No chance here.

Lions: LOL

Eagles: Very possible pick here, but remember they could consider other prospects.

Vikings: Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor?

Patriots: Laurence Maroney is on the roster along with Fred Taylor. I doubt it.

Falcons: Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood say hello.

Dolphins: If Ronnie Brown isn't traded based on the latest rumors, there is no way the Dolphins go running back.

Ravens: Doubtful since they drafted Ray Rice in the second round in 2008.

Colts: Wells does not fit this offensive scheme, plus wide receiver and defensive tackle are the biggest needs.

Bills: Buffalo has so many needs at tight end, linebacker, defensive end - just not likely.

Giants: The Giants already have a big, mauling back in Brandon Jacobs. If they want a No. 2 option it would be Moreno or Donald Brown.

Tennessee: Shake N'Bake - enough said.

Cardinals: This is a possible destination, though less likely because they have Tim Hightower as a short-yardage back. I will change this pick in my final mock draft.

Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall was drafted in the first last year, so no possibility for Wells here.

When you break it down, the only teams in Wells' draft range in the first round include New Orleans, the New York Jets and Philadelphia.

Granted, another team like Cincinnati or Seattle could trade up into the first round for Wells, but he could take a serious draft day slide if those three teams choose to pass.

No one expected Rashard Mendenhall to fall to No. 23 last year. In the 2009 NFL Draft, this can be anticipated, so you can look like the draft genius when you tell your buddies, "Beanie Wells could fall out of the first round if no one trades up for him."

With only three teams seriously considering him (and considering other players as well), this is a very real possibility.

Matt McGuire's Recent NFL Draft Blog Entries:

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NBA Draft vs. NFL Draft - 6/27
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Kentucky 2010 NBA Draft Prospect Blog - 6/1
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2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year - 5/24
2010 NFL Power Rankings Tier - 5/21
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NFL Mailbag: C.J. Spiller and Buffalo Bills Reaction - 5/14
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The Buffalo Bills - 5/13
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Most Productive 2010 NFL Rookies - 5/6
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2010 NFL Draft Observations and Telecast Blog - 4/26
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Day 3 - 4/25
2010 NFL Draft Grades: Rounds 1-3 - 4/24
2010 NFL Draft Grades: First Round - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Trade Analysis - 4/23
Random Round 1 Thoughts and Analysis - 4/23
2010 NFL Draft Class Predictions - 4/22
2010 NFL Draft Trades - 4/21
Response to Mike Mayock's Redskins-Trent Williams Comment - 4/8
Teams Misevaluating Their Own Quarterbacks - 4/6
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2010 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks - 3/25
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Mel Kiper vs. Todd McShay Debate Revisited - 3/8
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2010 NFL Draft: All-Overhyped and Underrated Teams - 2/18
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