2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Saints at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I thought this was pretty cool: What would it be like to die on every other planet?

Oh man, so much for building a colony on Mars!

MIAMI OFFENSE: One of the best matchups of the entire Week 11 NFL slate occurred in Spain. It was De’Von Achane against the Redskins’ horrendously slow linebackers. Achane was supposed to be able to sprint through Washington’s horrendous defense with ease all morning. Achane wasn’t as dominant as I thought he would be, but he still had a great game, which allowed the Dolphins to prevail.

Achane’s matchup isn’t as juicy this week. The Saints, despite their poor record, are solid against the run. They’re ninth when it comes to stopping opposing backs, and they have the talent at linebacker to deal with Achane when he’s used as a receiving threat.

The Saints are incredibly weak to the pass, however. Even Kirk Cousins looked great against them last week, so Tua Tagovailoa has a shot to play well. It’s certainly not a guarantee, however, as Tagovailoa has been responsible for some horrendous performances this season. He wasn’t even that great in Spain versus Washington’s abysmal pass defense.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough’s performance against the Falcons can be described as abysmal. Then again, Shough didn’t have the best matchup at his disposal. He couldn’t solve the Falcons, who have maintained a strong aerial defense this year. They’re 14th versus the pass, but that includes Bryce Young’s 450-yard performance where he was able to benefit from Atlanta’s horrible jetlag from Germany.

Shough was much better against the Panthers the prior week, which wasn’t a surprise because Carolina is 27th against the pass. Miami is just as bad as the Panthers, ranking 26th in that regard. The Dolphins have no pass rush to speak of, unlike the Falcons, so Shough won’t be pressured nearly as often this week. He’ll be able to attack a horrible Miami secondary completely devoid of talent.

The only positive aspect of Miami’s defense is its ability to clamp down on the run. Like the Saints, the Dolphins are in the top 10 when it comes to containing rushing attacks, so Alvin Kamara won’t be much of a factor as a runner, if he even plays.

RECAP: This might be my November NFL Pick of the Month, and no, I’m not joking. I believe this is the greatest discrepancy I’ve had between the spread and my projected line all year. Miami is favored by six, and yet I have the Dolphins projected as a 1.5-point favorite.

If you’re wondering if this means that I have the Saints and Dolphins ranked evenly, then yes, I do. I have them both as Group F teams, and I don’t see much of a difference between the two. Achane is someone who sets these two rosters apart, but as mentioned earlier, the Saints have a top-10 run defense, so Achane won’t be able to meet his full potential in this game. New Orleans just did a great job of restricting Bijan Robinson, so Achane shouldn’t have a big game.

Otherwise, these teams are similar. Both defenses can’t generate pressure or stop the pass. Both defenses are strong against the run. Both teams have just one viable wide receiver, albeit two very good ones in Jaylen Waddle and Chris Olave. The Dolphins have Achane, while the Saints have the superior blocking unit. Tagovailoa has way more experience than Shough, but both quarterbacks suck. Tagovailoa has had some ghastly performances this year, and he’s 23rd in EPA amongst all starters. He’s a bottom-10 starting quarterback, as is Shough, obviously.

So, not only do we have a massive line edge in this game, we also have the edge in the spot. Miami is in a terrible spot. The team won prior to the bye, which is a horrible situation because the Dolphin players have been hearing about how nice the overseas win was for two weeks. It’s doubtful that they’ve been practicing very hard for this game. The Saints were in the same position themselves last week, as they were high off a win versus the Panthers heading into the bye.

Even if this doesn’t trip up the Dolphins, there is no reality in which they deserve to be favored by six points. I don’t quite know if the Saints will make it as my Pick of the Month, but this will be a huge play regardless.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara didn’t practice Wednesday, but that was expected. Despite this, someone bet the Saints down to +5.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: Chris Olave is questionable after going limited-DNP-limited. I can’t bet the Saints highly if he’s out, so we’ll have to wait until Sunday morning to lock down a unit count for this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chris Olave is in for the Saints, while Darren Waller will be active for the Dolphins. I still like the Saints, but a bit less than before. The sharps took New Orleans at +6. The best line is +5.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Saints.

The Dolphins had a win on an international stage prior to their bye.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -4.5.

Computer Model: Dolphins -3.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of money on the Dolphins.

Percentage of money on Miami: 73% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 35-50 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 80 degress. Mild wind, 12 mph.