2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Jaguars at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence continues to be maddeningly inconsistent. He made some tremendous throws against Arizona, but was guilty of some bone-headed turnovers, which has been par for the course for him.

Lawrence had a tougher battle than most people expected because Arizona entered this past week ranked 12th in defense. The Titans are obviously far worse. They’re a bit better now with Jeffery Simmons on the field again, but they still have severe issues stopping everything. They’re poor against both the run and the pass, so the Jaguars should have success doing whatever they need to do versus Tennessee.

If Lawrence can avoid his usual dumb mistakes, he should be able to have a great performance here, especially if Brian Thomas Jr. can return. He’ll also be able to rely on Travis Etienne, who will be able to pick up where Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet left off last week. The two Seattle backs gashed the Titans for 106 yards on just 17 carries.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans are often just as bad on offense as they are on defense, but that wasn’t the case last week. Cam Ward had his best game as a pro thus far. Granted, most of his positive production came in garbage time, but we’ve seen him struggle in garbage time earlier in the season.

The biggest difference is that Ward began scrambling. Ward always had mobility, but inexplicably failed to utilize his legs in the first half of the season. If Ward continues to do this, he’ll have much more success because he’s currently someone who holds on to the ball way too long in the pocket, which results in plenty of sacks and turnovers. There’s no guarantee Ward will continue to run, but he’ll need to because the best aspect of Jacksonville’s defense is its edge rush.

Ward will have to take matters into his own hands because he won’t get much out of his running game. The Jaguars aren’t great versus the run, but they’re a healthy 14th against it.

RECAP: I imagine most of you are expecting me to fade the Titans again, but I’m not going to do that. In fact, I’m going to back the Titans for the first time all year.

This has very little with Tennessee covering its previous three games, though it must be acknowledged that the team hasn’t been as horrendous lately because of Simmons’ return to the field and Ward’s slight improvements. Again, Ward played well last week because of his scrambles. Perhaps we’ll see more of that in the coming weeks.

There are two reasons I’m backing the Titans. The first is that the Jaguars are not that good. They’re 7-4, but they’ve had so many bogus wins. They’ve had close calls against teams with horrendous records like the Raiders and Cardinals. They should be favored by 4.5 or so; not 6.5. The second reason is that the Jaguars have a huge game coming up next week versus the Colts, which could help decide the AFC South. I imagine they have one eye on that game.

I’m backing the Titans, so does that mean I’m actually betting on them? Hell no! I’m not putting my hard-earned money on the worst team in the NFL when they’ve needed punt returns to cover two of their previous three games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy Iskoe and I had a long argument about this game. Check out the video below for that and much more:

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans might be down a couple of offensive linemen. Center Lloyd Cushenberry is out, while tackle Dan Moore is questionable after being limited in practice all week. I’m still leaning toward Tennessee, but won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arik Armstead is a surprise inactive for the Jaguars, so the Titans look a bit better. I can’t bet them. The sharps did, however, taking Tennessee at +6.5 and +6. The best line is +6 -112 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Jaguars play the Colts next.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -7.

Computer Model: Jaguars -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 68% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

History: Jaguars have won 5 of last 6 meetings.

Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Chance of rain, 42 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.