2025 NFL Picks – Week 13: Giants at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New England, where tonight, the New York Vagiants take on the New England Patriots. Guys, I heard something real funny when my friend called the Giants the Vagiants. I laughed a lot at it because it sounded funny. You guys know the word Vagiants is supposed to sound like, and it’s real funny to compare it to the stupid Giants, who are the bad guys when you compare them to my Phildelphia Eagles. That word, of course, is vagrants. Vagrants, guys, and now all stupid Vagiants fans can feel stupid, mark my words!

Emmitt: Thanks, Mark. I think you real confusion between what your friend call the Giants the Vagiants. He not referring to vagrant, which probably a type of vegetable, but he referring to the word that name vaginus. That is a word for sexual part of the woman body. While man have pengina, woman have vaginus. I learnded this in homeschooled class that Mrs. Reilly teached to me last semolester.

Reilly: Emmitt, how did you get a spot in that class? I’ve been trying to register for it for the past five years, but Mother keeps saying that it’s impossible to register for it because the devil has taken over the class. Maybe New Daddy can put in a word for me? New Daddy, can I use you as a reference when I register next semester?

Jay Cutler: Can’t. I’ve been trying to get in myself.

Tollefson: Reilly, you’re just mentally not ready to take sexual education class at your mom’s home school. I’ve taken the class five times, and I’ve gotten an A+ all five times. No one knows more about sexual education than me because one of my female slaves is a former sexual education teacher, and she told me all about it while cooking and cleaning naked for me. She was one of my most prized slaves until she began talking about the outside world, and what it would be like to see it one day. Now, she’s swimming at the bottom of the lake.

Reilly: That’s nice that she gets to go swimming. I wish I could go swimming in the local pool, but Mother told me that swimming is the devil because it’s just a trap that would drown me. The best I can do is the kiddie pool on my deck, as long as we have a lifeguard present. Mother is usually the lifeguard, but not when she’s busy at Bingo. Clarissa, will you be my lifeguard?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Lifeguard. I have breaking news tonight. Eli Manning will throw a pass that will stick to his receiver’s helmet. Back to you, Lifeguard.

Reilly: HEY, MY NAME IS NOT LIFEGUARD! WE NEED A LIFEGUARD! AND WHAT YOU SAID COULD NEVER POSSIBLY HAPPEN EVER IN ANY GAME, YOU FOOL!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, I need to jump in here and offer my analysis. You just said that Clarissa Thompkins is a fool, but I beg to differ. If there is a fool here, it’s you because you do not recognize my genius and football acumen. Allow me to demonstrate. While it’s unlikely that any player will ever make a helmet catch, let’s break down the players most likely to do so. Let’s begin with my No. 1 candidate, Geno Smith. I know Geno Smith is a quarterback, and not just any quarterback, THE best quarterback to beat quarters coverage by throwing over the top of it, but Smith’s brilliance is exactly why he would be the most likely candidate to ever make a helmet catch. And the other person on my list is also Geno Smith because he’s the top-one quarterback in the NFL, so he needs to be listed twice. If you don’t agree, then you are racist against Asian female NFL analysts.

Reilly: Milo, I wasn’t really paying attention to what you have to say, but will you be my lifeguard? Because girls make for being great lifeguards.

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST SAY THAT GIRLS MAKE FOR BEING GOOD LIFEGUARDS!?!? THAT’S SO SEXIST! GIRLS ARE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF BEING GREAT AT ANYTHING AND NOT JUST GOOD, SO IF YOU’RE IMPLYING THAT MALE LIFEGUARDS ARE GREAT, AND FEMALE LIFEGUARDS ARE JUST GOOD, I AM GOING STRAIGHT TO HR AND STRAIGHTENING THIS OUT!

Reilly: What is HR? Home run? This is football, silly woman. Speaking of silly women, they’ve added another one to this booth.

Josina Anderson: DID ANYONE SEE HOW GREAT SHEDEUR SANDERS WAS THIS WEEK!?!??!? HE THREW AN PASS INTERSECTION BUT THAT’S BECAUSE HE DID NOT GET A STARTING REP IN PRACTICE THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH THE OTHER GUY HAD A CONCUSSIONED!!! SHEDEUR SANDERS IS A GOD AMONGST MEN, AND HE’S SO GREAT THAT HE’S ALSO A GOD AMONGST GODS, SO IMAGINE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF HE GOT A STARTING REP IN PRACTICE!!!

Reilly: Who are you even talking about? Is this Shedeur guy a lifeguard? I don’t want a boy lifeguard, I want a girl lifeguard!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about water safety measures, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other water safety measures, Kevin. How about life jackets, Kevin? Don’t forget about avoiding currents, Kevin. Let’s stay in designated areas, Kevin. Don’t forget to obey signs, Kevin. Care to share about learning how to swim, Kevin? Also, there’s treading water, Kevin. It’s always nice to have supervision, Kevin. But Kevin, feel free to ignore all of these so you can just drown, Kevin.

Reilly: Don’t you think that’s why I’m obsessed with having a lifeguard!? I don’t want to drown in my kiddie pool! We’ll be back right after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were enjoying a great, relatively injury-free season, but disaster struck last week. Both left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson suffered injuries and will be out indefinitely. Right tackle Morgan Moses also got banged up, but he managed to stay in the game.

This is far from ideal, but not completely devastating. Moses should be fine for this game, while Wilson isn’t a particularly good player. Campbell is, however, and his absence will greatly benefit the Giants’ edge rush. Drake Maye will see more pressure than usual, so it’s hard to expect the Patriots to be as efficient in this game as they’ve been for most of the year.

New England should at least be able to run the ball, even without Campbell. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to stopping the rush, and we know how TreVeyon Henderson can be when he gets into the open field.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was a mild surprise that Jaxson Dart was unavailable for last week’s game. Dart had practiced on a limited basis and already missed a game with a concussion. The Giants smartly held him out versus the Lions, so there’s a better chance Dart will be 100 percent for this contest. Quarterbacks tend to struggle coming off a concussion, but because New York gave Dart extra time to heal, he should be fully ready for this contest.

Dart doesn’t have the easiest matchup in this game, as the Patriots are ranked fifth in defensive EPA. However, they can be beaten by scrambling quarterbacks, and that’s where Dart specializes. Dart is lethal with his legs, and even the best defenses haven’t been able to solve him yet.

One issue for Dart is that he lost his favorite weapon, Cam Skattebo. The Patriots are solid against the run and shouldn’t have an issue containing Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singletary.

RECAP: Given the issues on the Patriots offensive line, this line is a bit too high. New England’s decline in pass protection isn’t a huge problem, but the matchup in the trenches certainly favors the Giants, especially when considering that New York’s strength is its pass rush.

Speaking of the Giants defense, New York fired its coordinator, Shane Bowen. I like this dynamic for the Giants because teams that tend to fire coaches tend to be on high alert because the players don’t want fingers pointed at them. I expect a much better performance from New York’s defense than we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Dart, meanwhile, will keep the Giants in the game. Given that most of Dart’s games have been close, I expect the Giants to cover the spread. I like them a good deal at +7.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen a practice report on Jaxson Dart yet, so I’m eager to see if he’ll be full in practice leading up to this game. If he’s limited, I’ll have to re-think my potential bet on the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Dexter Lawrence or Kayvon Thibodeaux yet in practice for the Giants over the past two days, so New York may not be able to fully take advantage of New England’s offensive line injuries. Meanwhile, Harold Landry has yet to practice. His absence would be a big blow to New England’s defense.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Kayvon Thibodeaux is out, but Dexter Lawrence is not on the final injury report. Harold Landry is going to be a game-time decision.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: I like Theo Johnson to go over his receiving yards. The Patriots have the 10th-worst defense against tight ends, and Jaxson Dart loves throwing to Johnson. We’re betting this at DraftKings (over 33.5 -110) because of a 30-percent profit boost, up to $25. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for same-game parlays. We’re going to use Johnson over 32.5 receiving yards, TreVeyon Henderson over 63.5 rushing yards, and Jaxson Dart over 27.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $171.54. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I shouldn’t have waited to bet the Giants. The sharps have come in on New York, betting this line down to +7. The best line is +7 +100 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -9.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (220,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.