2025 NFL Picks – Week 12: Colts at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was a bit shocked to see that the Chiefs are currently ranked first in offensive EPA. They struggled to do much in their previous two games, yet they’re still considered the best offense in the NFL. I guess it just shows how hot they were when Rashee Rice initially returned from his suspension. Patrick Mahomes was on fire, owning the top fantasy football score amongst all players at his position. He was scrambling a lot, and- wait. Wait a second. What happened to that?

Mahomes has barely scrambled in the past two games. He had one carry against the Bills and one carry against the Broncos. I don’t know what changed, but Mahomes was so willing to pick up first downs with his legs, but he hasn’t bothered to do that at all versus the Bills and Broncos. I initially speculated that Andy Reid was hiding stuff from the Bills because of an impending playoff rematch, but Mahomes’ unwillingness to run in a pivotal divisional matchup was puzzling, to say the least.

It’s unclear if this is the beginning of a new trend, or if it’ll be corrected. But if Mahomes doesn’t scramble, I can’t say I like Kansas City’s chances of scoring consistently against the Colts. Mahomes won’t have one of his primary targets available because of Sauce Gardner’s presence. The Colts also tend to play well against the run, though that’ll be tested by the absence of DeForest Buckner. Still, it’ll be up to Mahomes to take matters into his own hands, or rather legs, and if he doesn’t do so, the Chiefs won’t score very many points.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs are first in offense, they’re 18th in defense. They’re especially poor against the run, ranking 24th in that department. I don’t need to tell you how detrimental that is for this matchup.

Jonathan aylor, currently the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, is coming off a stellar performance against the Falcons in which he threatened the single-game rushing record. If the Chiefs’ struggles against the run persist, Taylor will have another terrific output.

The Chiefs will have to sell out to stop the run, and that may not even work. Even if they can limit Taylor a bit, that’ll just open up some great opportunities for Daniel Jones, who can also beat the Chiefs with his legs. I don’t know if Mahomes will scramble, but we know Jones will do so as the upstart underdog in this matchup. Jones will also make good use of Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce, who has been playing much better lately.

RECAP: If Mahomes scrambles just once like he did versus the Bills and Broncos, the Chiefs will have a tough time covering this spread, or even winning this game. The Chiefs went on a 5-1 run following their 0-2 start because Mahomes was running so often, but he has just stopped. I don’t know if it’s because of an undisclosed injury, or lethargy, or maybe it’s because he just forgot. Whatever it is, Kansas City’s success moving forward will be contingent on Mahomes’ legs.

I think this is a game that would be better served betting live rather than pre-game. If we see Mahomes scrambling right away, we’ll know that the Chiefs are putting their full effort into this contest. Conversely, if Mahomes remains stationary in the pocket the entire time, the Colts will be the way to go.

I’m currently going to side with the Colts because of Mahomes’ lack of scrambling and Taylor’s big edge in this game. I won’t place any units on this game yet, but I may bet this live. Follow me @walterfootball for live betting updates.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Patrick Mahomes is 105-30 SU, 71-62 ATS (57-48 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-11 ATS after a loss.

Andy Reid is 10-14 ATS two weeks after the bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: .