2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Vikings at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Vikings maintained a strong defense last year, but the Lions had no issues scoring against Minnesota twice. Obviously, Detroit has the talent on this side of the ball to put up plenty of points against anyone, but the team was particularly effective against the Vikings.

The primary reason for this is how Jared Goff reacts to Brian Flores’ defense. Flores blitzes more than any coordinator in the NFL, and that’s music to Goff’s ears. Goff is tremendous against the blitz. When blitzed this year, Goff has completed 75 percent of his passes on an insane 9.2 YPA, with five touchdowns and no interceptions. His YPA when not blitzed is 7.5, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is a very good, but not amazing (10:3). Goff is a better quarterback when blitzed, and the Vikings just feed into it.

Oh, and then there’s the matter of the running game. The Vikings just surrendered about 110 rushing yards to Kimani Vidal. They’ve been leaky against the run all year. And yet, they’ve yet to battle Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. What could possibly happen?

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I loved the Vikings as a Super Bowl sleeper heading into the year. One of the reasons for this was all the improvements they made to the offensive line. Not only were they adding three blockers; they were also getting Christian Darrisaw back from injury. The tremendous blocking would give J.J. McCarthy a great chance to consistently connect with his talented play-makers.

Well, things have gone awry, and it’s because of why I loved the Vikings in the first place. Their offensive line has been in shambles because of injuries. Darrisaw and talented right tackle Brian O’Neill have missed a combined six games. New center Ryan Kelly has barely played. Last week, the Vikings were missing all three players – Darrisaw started, but left the game early – so Carson Wentz had no chance.

The Vikings will surely be moving back to McCarthy in this game, but if the blockers don’t return from injury, it won’t matter. Detroit’s defensive line is just way too good to not take advantage of this liability.

RECAP: Assuming the Vikings don’t get two of their offensive linemen back from injury, this should be an easy cover for the Lions, even at over a touchdown. There are just way too many advantages in their favor. Goff can dissect a blitzing defense with ease. The running game will trample over Minnesota’s soft ground defense. And the Minnesota blocking won’t hold up well against Detroit’s defensive front.

Oh, and then there’s the matter of the Lions coming off a bye. Not every team benefits from a week off, but Dan Campbell should be 4-0 against the spread following a regular-season bye. He’s actually 3-1, but the one loss was the infamous game where Jamaal Williams fumbled at the goal line to ruin a potential upset win.

This should be a huge play on Detroit, unless the Vikings suddenly get a lot healthier up front. And even then, the Lions seem to be way too strong for them. The Lions simply seem way too easy at -8.5. My numbers say this spread should be -11.5, and the computer model has this projected at -13!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, I can’t be as high on the Lions anymore because Christian Darrisaw practiced fully, while Brian O’Neill was limited on Wednesday. I assumed the Vikings would have the same horrible offensive line conditions as Thursday night, but that’s not the case. I still like the Lions, but not for nearly as much.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -7.5.

Computer Model: Lions -13.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 91% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -7.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.