2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: Falcons at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s a reply on X from another one of these idiots who believe that trans is real:

I’ve always maintained that anyone who blocks someone on social media has the mentality of a 12-year-old girl. Calling someone a “sniveling little retard piss baby” is something a 12-year-old would do.

As for responses for last week’s games, I got this on Facebook:

This is a salty Bengals fan who was upset that his team lost to the Jets. Did we get lucky with the Jets? Sure. I admitted as such in the Week 8 NFL Reactions Video. Trey Hendrickson getting hurt was huge for our pick. However, this was only a two-unit selection. This was one of the rare occasions in which we’ve gotten lucky this year, and none of that occurred with any four- or five-unit picks. I’d love to know how I get lucky every week when we’ve been on the losing side of every 50-50 game involving high-unit picks!

Here’s more from this guy:

He sent this at halftime of the Packers-Steelers game. Pittsburgh did, indeed, get some calls its way. But what happened when the refs missed a completely blatant offsides on a third down that changed the course of the game? Not a peep from this guy. Haters gonna hate.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If the Falcons bring the same effort as we saw last week when they played against the Dolphins, the Patriots could score into the 50s. Atlanta put forth zero effort into the game versus Miami, routinely surrendering big plays to an injury-ravaged offense with a poor blocking unit. This is the second egg the Falcons laid since Week 3, so if I owned the team, I would have fired Raheem Morris on the spot.

The Falcons will put forth a better performance this week, but the problem is that the matchup is much tougher. Drake Maye, despite taking five sacks from Myles Garrett last week, was able to lead the team to a 31-point showing versus Cleveland’s elite defense. Maye has evolved quicker than anyone could have anticipated, and it could be argued that he’s now a top-five quarterback in the NFL. He torched the Browns with several deep throws to Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte, and he was able to use his legs to pick up a crucial big gain.

The only thing the Patriots have done wrong this year is give Rhamondre Stevenson more of a workload than TreVeyon Henderson, but there was an indication last week that this might be changing. Henderson was way more involved than he was in Week 7, and he rewarded the coaching staff with way more explosive plays than Stevenson provided. The Dolphins just ran all over the Falcons, though that may have been the result of the lackluster effort I discussed earlier.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It would have been easy to blame Atlanta’s loss to the Dolphins on the offense had the defense actually showed up. This is because Kirk Cousins started for Michael Penix Jr., and Drake London was a late scratch. Cousins wasn’t horrible considering the circumstances, but he and his receivers had numerous miscommunications. It had me wondering what Morris was doing with his team during practice all week.

It’s unclear if Penix and London will return, but considering that Morris deemed them both day-to-day, then there’s a good chance both will play this week. The Falcons will need all hands on deck versus New England’s improved defense, which is averaging about 20 pressures per game. The Falcons will need London to soak up Christian Gonzalez’s coverage so that other players can get open.

Of course, Bijan Robinson must be involved as well. The Falcons inexplicably barely gave Robinson any carries against one of the league’s worst run defenses last week. Robinson faces a tougher task this week – the Patriots are seventh against the run – but someone like Robinson is matchup-proof and can hit multiple big plays against anyone.

RECAP: I love fading overreactions, and we certainly have one in this game. The Patriots were just -2.5 in this matchup prior to the Week 8 results. But because of what transpired in Week 8, New England is now -5.5.

So, what transpired in Week 8, exactly? The Patriots blew out the Browns, but that was just a 9-7 affair at halftime before Dillon Gabriel predictably imploded. Meanwhile, the Falcons were blown out, but they didn’t try at all. The last time they laid an egg like this, they bounced back with a win and cover over the Redskins.

We’re once again going to see a better performance out of the Falcons. They’re a team that plays both up and down to their competition. While they were no-shows versus the Panthers and Dolphins, they beat the Bills by 10, traveled to Minnesota as 3.5-point underdogs and prevailed by 16, and went toe to toe with the Buccaneers in the season opener. I think they can hang with the Patriots, who have five wins over Group D or Group F teams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Drake London and Michael Penix Jr. practiced Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. Still, it’s better than DNPs, and so the Falcons look good as an underdog in this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -4.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Everyone thinks the Patriots are free money.

Percentage of money on New England: 86% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .