2025 NFL Picks – Week 9: 49ers at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 7-21 heading into Week 8.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers +1.5

Cowboys +3.5

Bills -7.5

Bengals -6.5

Buccaneers -4.5

Colts -14.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahaws -3.5

Lions -8.5

Patriots -5.5

Chargers -10.5

Broncos +1.5

The public is back to siding with favorites for the most part.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If Christian McCaffrey put on the Eagles-Giants tape from last week, he’d surely like what he sees. The Eagles gashed New York’s putrid run defense throughout the afternoon, even when Saquon Barkley was sidelined with a groin injury. Barkley, who hadn’t even broken a play longer than 18 yard all year, scored on a 65-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage.

McCaffrey is capable of running better now that George Kittle is on the field again. Kittle opens up so much for McCaffrey, who couldn’t quite take advantage of this last week because of the constant deficit to Houston’s strong defense. McCaffrey will have a much better game this week.

The 49ers’ ability to run the ball at a very efficient rate will open things up for whichever quarterback starts this week. It’s unclear if it’ll be Brock Purdy or Mac Jones, but it seemed as though Purdy was close to returning next week, so perhaps it’ll be him. If so, Purdy will have an easy time dissecting New York’s awful secondary.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants suffered a catastrophic loss last week when Cam Skattebo went down with a gruesome-looking dislocated ankle. When this happened, I placed a live bet on the Eagles -14.5 because it was clear that the Giants weren’t going to be able to hang with Philadelphia.

And yes, I’m aware that the Giants have a solid backup in Tyrone Tracy, but he doesn’t compare to what Skattebo did for the team. With a lackluster corps of receivers, the Giants needed Skattebo to serve as a versatile threat. His absence depletes the weaponry Jaxson Dart has at his disposal. Dart can still scramble, but he can’t do it all by himself.

The one hope Dart has is if the 49ers are down all of their pass rushers once again. The Texans became a great play last week – despite us having just two units on them – when it was clear that the 49ers were going to miss Bryce Huff, giving them zero talent at edge rusher. C.J. Stroud had all the time in the world, which is a luxury Dart will enjoy as well if Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos are sidelined again.

RECAP: The 49ers were an obvious fade last week, but not so much this time, even if they don’t have their defensive ends again. The difference is that the Giants, in their current state, are clearly worse than the Texans. Dart will play well with added protection, and he could win this game in that scenario, but he has less of a chance of doing so than Stroud because he lost his primary weapon. Skattebo’s absence is a huge blow for the Giants, even though running back is a largely replaceable position.

With that in mind, I will be betting the 49ers if they can get a defensive end or two back from injury. A functional pass rush will make things very difficult for a Skattebo-less Giants offense, and we know that New York’s defense won’t have a chance against McCaffrey.

Also, keep in mind that the 49ers would be in a favorable spot. They’re coming off a loss – unlike last week – and they’ll be playing in an early game on the East Coast, which is a bullish scenario for Kyle Shanahan, who covers the spread at a 60-percent rate in these situations.

I’m going to pencil in the 49ers for now, but I’ll be monitoring the injury report closely to see how functional San Francisco’s defense can be this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bryce Huff and Yetur Gross-Matos didn’t practice on Wednesday, so the 49ers aren’t off to a good start on the injury report. I want to see one of them play before I wager on them; otherwise the Giants could have an easy time scoring in this game.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The 49ers are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -2.5.

Computer Model: Giants -1.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Plenty of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Kyle Shanahan is 11-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Kyle Shanahan is 9-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .