2025 NFL Picks – Week 7: Falcons at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the third part of my Walt Goes to Vegas series, where I discuss all the crazy responses to my Money Laundering t-shirt.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: One major reason why I moved the Falcons up to Group B in my NFL Power Rankings is that they are ranked No. 1 in EPA defense. Their pass rush suffocated Josh Allen in the Monday night victory over Buffalo. What did they did to shut down Allen and Buffalo’s high-octane offense was very impressive.

If the Falcons can limit Allen, they’ll be able to put the clamps on the 49ers as well. It’s unclear if Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and George Kittle will be able to even play this week. Right now, it’s just Mac Jones throwing to Kendrick Bourne when the ball isn’t going to Christian McCaffrey, which isn’t overly difficult to stop. Atlanta’s secondary is terrific, so covering Bourne and a hobbled Jauan Jennings seems rather simple for the Falcons.

Speaking of McCaffrey, he has the easiest matchup of any San Francisco player, if only by default. The Falcons are just mediocre versus the run, but it doesn’t seem like the 49ers run block well enough to take advantage of that. McCaffrey may once again have to do most of his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While Atlanta’s defense is thriving right now, the same can’t be said of San Francisco’s defense. Things were already bad with Nick Bosa done for the year, but now the 49ers will have to endure Fred Warner’s season-ending injury. Warner is the best off-ball linebacker in the NFL. He’s the heart and soul of San Francisco’s defense, and without him, the 49ers are going to be rudderless on this side of the ball.

Warner was terrific in run support, among other things, so his absence will surely be felt versus rushing attacks. That obviously doesn’t bode well for this matchup because the Falcons run the ball better than any other team in the NFL, save for perhaps the Colts and the Ravens when everyone’s healthy. Bijan Robinson is coming off an amazing Monday night performance and should continue to dominate.

Robinson’s great running will open up short-yardage opportunities for Michael Penix Jr. Penix will utilize Drake London frequently, as London has gotten more targets recently since the Falcons began utilizing him more in the slot.

RECAP: If you were to tell me that the Falcons would be 100-percent focused for this game, I think I would back them. I’d hesitate because of Ciracdian rhythms favoring a West Coast team at home in a night game, but I’d be OK with it because Atlanta is the better team, while San Francisco has so many injuries.

However, we’ve seen what happens when the Falcons win a huge game on national TV. They prevailed against the Vikings in Week 2 and then proceeded to lay a huge egg versus Carolina the following week. Could it happen again? I think there’s a decent chance it does. Following the win over the Bills, Robinson told the reporter that “all eyes were on us tonight” because this version of the Falcons had never hosted a Monday night game.

The Falcons put so much stock into defeating Buffalo, so what’s going to happen now that they’ve achieved their goal? It’s not out of the question that they could be similarly flat like they were at Carolina.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -4.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Tons of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 72% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

49ers are 44-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .