2025 NFL Picks – Week 6: Rams at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Well, that was pathetic. Cooper Rush stood no chance against the Texans. He was crushed in the pocket by Houston’s excellent pass rushers and turned the ball over as a result. And yet, he’ll have to start at least one more game, as Lamar Jackson looks to return after the Week 7 bye.

The Texans have a great defense, so Rush didn’t stand a chance. Unfortunately for Rush, he’ll have a similar matchup in this game because the Rams are also dominant defensively. They can generate a great pass rush, so there will be more turnovers from Rush. The Rams are also great against the run, so don’t expect anything from Derrick Henry.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It doesn’t get any better on this side of the ball for the Ravens. They’re missing countless starters, and as a result, they allowed the Texans to look like the Greatest Show on Turf last week. This is a Houston team that scored just six points in the opening half against Tennessee.

The Rams obviously have a much better offense than the Texans, so they’ll do whatever they please against the Ravens. Matthew Stafford will continue to stay hot as he targets Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and I’m sure we’ll see better ball security from the Rams running backs after last week’s debacle.

RECAP: This is probably the easiest bet of the week. It has to be on the Rams, and it has to be for at least five units.

The Ravens are a dumpster fire right now. Their defense is abysmal, while their quarterback play can be described as such as well. I love fading backup quarterbacks against top defenses, and the Rams rank seventh in defensive EPA.

Meanwhile, the Rams will be focused. They just lost on a national stage to their divisional rivals. They’ll be focused on winning this game. And by the way, don’t let the early start time for Los Angeles worry you. Sean McVay is 10-6 against the spread in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens might be getting Kyle Hamilton back from injury because he was limited in practice, but he wouldn’t be enough to solve all of Baltimore’s issues.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens aren’t as banged up as we initially thought. They’re still missing some key players, but they’ll be getting back Kyle Hamilton, Marlon Humphrey, and Ronnie Stanley. We don’t know how healthy those players are exactly, but the Ravens will have a chance to be more competitive. Still though, the Rams look like the right side, even if this is a wet and windy game. Weather projections are calling for rain and 16-25 mph winds, which will benefit the team that can run the ball more effectively. That would be the Rams.

PLAYER PROPS: We faded Derrick Henry last week, and we’re doing so again. Henry doesn’t have the same rushing edge as he does without Lamar Jackson, and the Rams have limited Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley to fewer than 77 rushing yards each over the past three weeks. The best number is under 73.5 rushing yards -111 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The weather doesn’t look terrible for this game. It’ll be windy, but not insanely so. There was no sharp action on either side until this morning when the pros came in on the Ravens at +7. The best line is -7 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link. I’m going to use a second-chance bet from DraftKings to pay $25 for this.

I’m also betting the alt line of -20.5. The best alt line is -20.5 +470 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

The Rams will look to bounce back from their national-stage loss.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -11.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.5.

Computer Model: Rams -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Late money coming in on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 75% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Sean McVay is 10-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games.

John Harbaugh is 15-8 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Rams -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Rain, 64 degrees. MILD/HEAVY WINDS, 16 mph.