2025 NFL Picks – Week 5: 49ers at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Week 4 Analysis: Aside from one game, Week 4 was looking pretty good heading into Sunday night. And then, we had a crazy roller coaster ride.

I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Patriots, 3 units (win): Ugh, why didn’t I bet more on this? I was a bit scared off by the spread, but that should have meant being more aggressive with this pick.

Falcons, 3 units (win): This was somehow +1 in the Supercontest and the Circa Millions. Atlanta -2.5 was good enough in an obvious bounce-back spot against a backup quarterback.

Chargers, 5 units (loss): I must have been some sort of witch doctor or voodoo lady in a previous life because key players get hurt on teams I bet all the time. We had Nick Bosa last week, and we had Joe Alt this week. Alt played just eight snaps before getting carted into the locker room, and the Chargers couldn’t protect whatsoever without him. This pressure led to two Justin Herbert interceptions that gave the Giants 11 free points on a pair of short fields. If you remove 11 points from the final score, the Giants go from winning 21-18 to losing 18-10, which covers the spread for us. The bad beats are relentless. Now, I know Malik Nabers got hurt too, but that was later in the game when the Giants already had a two-score lead.

Packers, 5 units (loss): I can’t explain this one. The Packers are far superior compared to a Dallas team with a terrible defense, an injured CeeDee Lamb, and two missing offensive linemen. They were also coming off a loss. How were they this bad defensively? I don’t get it. The Cowboys said that the blocked extra point gave them life, and if that’s really what it was, then that’s two blocked kicks in two consecutive weeks that have cost us eight units, plus the vig.

Broncos, 5 units (win): What a night! We hit the Broncos for five units, the -20.5 alt line for +420, and both same-game parlays!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was quite apparent that Brock Purdy wasn’t healthy in his return to action on Sunday. He made numerous mistakes, costing his team a potential victory over an inferior opponent.

I could buy Purdy being closer to 100 percent on a normal week of rest, but the NFL, showing a complete disregard for player health and safety, irresponsibly schedules games on just three days of rest. As a result, Purdy is likely going to struggle once again, especially when factoring in that his receivers are banged up. Both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings left the Jacksonville contest early with injuries, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to play this week.

The 49ers will have to continue to lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. While McCaffrey will be effective as a receiver out of the backfield, he’s certain to struggle on the ground because the Rams have been stellar against the run this year.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Rams have shut down opposing rushing attacks, the 49ers are mediocre as far as that part of the game is concerned. Travis Etienne had a big game versus San Francisco last week, so Kyren Williams and Blake Corum will be able to pick up chunks of yardage.

The biggest liability for the 49ers on this side of the ball is the pass rush. This wasn’t the case to start the season, but things have changed in the wake of the Nick Bosa injury. The 49ers are now putting less pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

I don’t need to tell you that this is a disastrous development for an impending matchup against Matthew Stafford. The Los Angeles quarterback came into the season with back concerns, but has been stellar after a slow start. The 49ers won’t be able to deal with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

RECAP: The 49ers are at a big disadvantage. They have severe health issues concerning their banged-up quarterback and hobbled receivers. They have to somehow formulate a game plan against a superior opponent in just three days with these issues. I’m very skeptical that they’ll be able to do this.

I like the Rams to cover the spread in this contest. I already have a habit of backing the better team on Thursdays, and the injuries make it so much more lopsided. Unless the 49ers get some unexpected positive injury news – one of Pearsall and Jennings returning for this game – I’ll be siding with the Rams for a couple of units.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, this game has changed a lot since I handicapped it on Tuesday morning. Brock Purdy and the two top receivers are out, causing the line to move to -8.5. I still like the Rams because their defense should be able to suffocate Mac Jones, but there’s a chance that coming off a win, the Rams may not be totally focused against the 49ers, given how many backups San Francisco will be utilizing. Plus, Thursday games are always weird. I won’t be betting on either side.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: First of all, FanDuel has a 30-percent profit boost for this game, up to $50. I’m going to back the Rams -9.5 for a half unit because of the great odds from the boost.

The vig on this is high, but I think there’s a great chance it’ll hit. I like the Jake Tonges over 2.5 receptions. The Rams have allowed a lot of production to tight ends, and Tonges will be heavily involved because both Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are out. The best line is over 2.5 receptions -162 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FanDuel has a no-sweat same-game parlay token available. We’ll be parlaying the Tonges over 2.5 receptions, Demarcus Robinson over 2.5 receptions, Kyren Williams over 67.5 rushing yards, and Rams moneyline. This $25 parlay pays $114.03. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, the 49ers won’t have any of their key offensive players in this game, save for Christian McCaffrey. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Rams, but nothing substantial. The best line is -8.5 -102 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.

Computer Model: Rams -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 61% (256,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

History: 49ers have won 27 of the last 38 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie and a 2023 game where both teams sat starters.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.