2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Texans at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: When the Buccaneers lost both of their tackles on Monday night, C.J. Stroud may have said to Baker Mayfield, “I feel your pain.” This is because Stroud has nothing as far as pass protection is concerned. He was beaten to a pulp Monday night even though the Buccaneers don’t even have a great edge rush.

Stroud will be in trouble in this game because the Jaguars actually have the edge rushers to punish poor tackle play. They knocked Joe Burrow out for most of the season, and they’ll look to treat Stroud similarly. Stroud once again won’t have ample time to find Nico Collins.

It doesn’t help Stroud that he can’t lean on any sort of running game. Nick Chubb looked like he was running in quicksand on Monday night, which is hardly a surprise, given his previous knee injury. The awful blocking isn’t helping matters.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Stroud wasn’t the only quarterback in this matchup who struggled in Week 2. Trevor Lawrence had some great throws against the Bengals, but gave the game away with numerous errant passes. He was intercepted twice and was lucky not to throw several more picks. He nearly got Brian Thomas Jr. killed on numerous occasions, and he even got into a negative interaction with Liam Coen during the final offensive drive of the afternoon.

As mediocre as Lawrence has been this year, it must be noted that he’s battled two of the worst defenses in the NFL: Carolina and Cincinnati. I called the Texans defense a paper tiger for their humiliating final drive against the Buccaneers, but there’s no doubt that Houston’s stop unit is better than whatever the Panthers and Bengals possess.

I’m not confident that Lawrence’s offensive line will be able to protect him from Houston’s talented pass rushers. Perhaps Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten can have some explosive runs like Bucky Irving did on Monday night, but I otherwise wouldn’t expect anything out of Jacksonville’s offense, especially with Thomas now nursing an injury.

RECAP: I hate both of these teams. Both surrendered last-second touchdown drives last week to cost us seven units plus the vig. The Jacksonville loss was especially brutal.

I also hate these teams because they suck. The Texans can’t block whatsoever, which will be a problem against a Jacksonville defense that brings lots of pressure. As for the Jaguars, it’s impossible to trust Lawrence against a talented defense, especially with Thomas injured. Lawrence was an interception machine against the Bengals, and I don’t need to tell you that Houston’s stop unit is much better than Cincinnati’s.

The Jaguars have a scheduling edge here because the Texans are playing a game on a short week and now have to travel. However, the Texans will be desperate for a win here because they’re 0-2. I’m going to side with Houston, but I’m nowhere close to betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have no interest in betting this game. I’d still lean Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing new to note here. I still can’t get to either team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Kirk will be active, so perhaps he’ll help Houston’s offense a bit, especially in a revenge spot. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is +1.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 57% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Texans have won 23 of the last 29 meetings.

Texans are 58-44 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (9-11 ATS as favorites).

Jaguars are 17-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.