2025 NFL Picks – Week 3: Falcons at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 1-4 heading into Week 2.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Vikings -3.5

Cowboys -4.5

Saints +4.5

Panthers +6.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1 and 1-3 in Week 2. A rough start, to say the least.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +1.5

Bengals +3

Panthers +5

Redskins -3.5

Eagles -3.5

It’s early, so I have to wonder if the public knows about Jayden Daniels’ injury.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: We bet Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year at 16/1 odds – per our NFL Betting Futures page – and that wager is looking pretty good right now. Robinson was dominant against a strong Minnesota defense on Sunday night, albeit one that didn’t have Andrew Van Ginkel. Robinson didn’t even handle the full workload, yet he nearly tallied 150 rushing yards.

Robinson could be even better this week. The Panthers’ defensive struggles are well documented. They can’t stop the run at all, so if Robinson is given a full workload, he could approach 200 rushing yards.

Despite Carolina’s struggles against the run, the biggest issue isn’t even the run defense. The Panthers produce no pressure on the quarterback. Aside from right tackle, the Falcons have a solid offensive line that will be able to keep Michael Penix Jr. clean. Penix may not be able to rely on Drake London very much because of Jaycee Horn, but he’ll be able to target Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Though the Panthers are better offensively than defensively, they still have big problems on this side of the ball, mostly stemming from Bryce Young. The former No. 1 overall pick still can’t see over the line of scrimmage and was a turnover machine early in last week’s game. Young turned the ball over twice in the opening quarter and gave the Cardinals 10 free points.

The thing is, Young didn’t even battle a tough defense. The Falcons aren’t known for having a tough defense, but they limited the Buccaneers to 260 net yards and 4.6 yards per play in the opener and then shut down the Vikings. They’re better this season for a couple of reasons. First, they’ve improved their pass rush with Leonard Floyd and two first-round rookies. Second, they have a rising star next to Jessie Bates at safety. All of this is bad news for Young.

Chuba Hubbard will also have some bad news. The Falcons have a strong ground defense, so Hubbard won’t have much running room. They’ve shut down Bucky Irving and the Minnesota running duo, so containing Hubbard shouldn’t be much of a problem.

RECAP: I can’t believe the Panthers covered last week. That was a disgusting loss. Carolina trailed 27-3, but the Cardinals fell asleep and allowed three touchdown drives in garbage time, with the third possession featuring a third-and-16 conversion to someone named Brycen Tremaine. Horrible.

The Panthers should have been blown out twice by the Jaguars and Cardinals. The Falcons are just as good as those teams, if not slightly better, so they should have no issues taking care of business in this game, especially with this contest being a divisional matchup.

Something I like with the Falcons is that they run the ball so well. This will make milking the clock easier for them than it was for Arizona. We saw Atlanta just suck the life out of the clock late versus Minnesota, so it could do the same to the Panthers, who are far worse against the run.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Falcons remain a top play. Something I didn’t mention about the Panthers is that their center is out. This can only help Atlanta’s improved pass rush.

PLAYER PROPS: I thought we’d see Bijan Robinson’s rushing yardage prop closer to 90, or even 95. I don’t understand how it’s only 81. Travis Etienne ran for 143 yards against them in Week 1. The best number is over 81.5 rushing yards -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers are known as having one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but that’s no longer the case. They lost two blockers – Robert Hunt, Austin Corbett – to injured reserve. Hunt and Corbett were their second- and third-highest-rated blockers according to PFF, so they’ll be missed, especially in this matchup againt Atlanta’s enhanced pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps had bet the Falcons all week, but for some reason, there was some other sharp action that came in on the Panthers at +5.5 on Saturday evening. Perhaps those people were waiting for a +6, which never came. The best line is -4.5 -109 at Bookmaker, but FanDuel has a 50-percent profit boost for any game. I’m going to use that here just in case anything else pops up. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -1.5.

Computer Model: Falcons -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The Panthers are a publicly backed home dog.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 54% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 14 of the last 22 meetings.

Raheem Morris is 3-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Falcons -2.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 81 degrees. Light wind.